As the end of the year approaches, market sentiment is gradually recovering, and DMC market prices are showing a slight upward trend. The mainstream quotation is between 13000 and 13500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price has slightly increased, reaching the range of 13000 to 13200 yuan/ton. With the rebound of individual factory prices, midstream and downstream enterprises have responded one after another, gradually carrying out stocking work, and the market transaction atmosphere has improved. In terms of cost, after more than 20 days of fluctuating adjustments, the futures market for industrial silicon has also rebounded. On December 24th, the main contract for industrial silicon, 2502, opened at 11335 yuan/ton and closed up 140 yuan at 11465 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.24%. The pessimistic sentiment in the market has slightly eased. However, the supply-demand contradiction on the spot side remains prominent, and the market price of 421 # silicon remains stable between 11700 and 12700 yuan/ton for the time being. In terms of demand, the stocking of essential goods is gradually following up, but due to the relatively limited profit margins of the silicone oil and silicone rubber industries, although there is some demand that follows price increases, it has not formed a trend of centralized procurement, and the stocking efforts are still not strong. At present, leading factories have not yet launched large-scale price support operations, but the support for price stability still exists. Looking ahead to 2024, the market may have a good start, although a significant increase is difficult to foresee, a moderate rise is still worth looking forward to, adding some hope to the new year.
In terms of the raw rubber market, the quotations of raw rubber enterprises have remained stable this week, with mainstream quotations ranging from 14300 to 14500 yuan/ton. After the increase in raw material DMC prices, the operating rate of some self-produced rubber mixing factories has decreased. However, their enthusiasm for stocking raw rubber has increased, which may be closely related to the layout strategy of individual factories for raw rubber. At the same time, prices of other rubber factories have generally followed DMC's rise, highlighting the competitive advantage of leading factories in terms of price. With the implementation of AB class policies, mixed rubber enterprises with stocking needs are gradually becoming active, and market orders are showing a trend of returning to leading factories. If other rubber factories want to maintain competitiveness in this situation, they can only rely on negotiations to stabilize their market share. In the short term, as DMC prices continue to rise, downstream rubber mixing companies' stocking needs are gradually following suit, and the competitive atmosphere in the raw rubber market is becoming increasingly intense. Prices may be adjusted in the future, depending on the leading factories' control over the raw rubber market.
The situation in the mixed rubber market is somewhat complex, and as the end of the year approaches, there is pressure to "receive payments" in the market. Under financial pressure, rubber mixing enterprises have engaged in a tug of war with customers. In order to ensure smooth cash flow, some companies have had to lower prices and adopt extremely low cash prices to promote transactions. This has led to market quotes remaining stable at 12800 to 13500 yuan/ton, but actual transaction prices are relatively chaotic. It is expected that the mixed rubber market will continue its weak stability pattern during the end of the year. In terms of demand, with the rise in upstream prices and in response to the national call for "anti involution", the downstream silicon products market is gradually recovering. The activity of the terminal silicone products market has brought a certain boost to the overall market, and the orders of silicon product enterprises have also rebounded, thereby driving the upstream procurement efforts to increase. At the same time, rubber mixing enterprises are also conducting "year-end promotions", and the trading atmosphere in the market has improved. Overall, the current market is showing a positive trend of expanding into the year-end market, while downstream enterprises are striving to recoup their funds. The overall market is still in a weak and stable state, and it is expected that the mixed rubber market will maintain this pattern by the end of the year.