In the second quarter, the global smartphone market saw a 10% year-on-year increase in revenue, breaking through the $100 billion mark for the first time and setting a historical high for the second quarter. In contrast, global smartphone shipments increased by only 3% year-on-year. The latest wave of tariffs imposed by Trump took effect on August 7th, and even if companies try to bear some of the costs, they may still pass them on to consumers, with prices of bulk imported goods such as computers, electronics, watches, clothing, shoes, and alcohol being the most likely to rise. Goldman Sachs estimates that consumers will experience "pain" within 8 months. Several export-oriented silicone product factories in Guangdong have revealed that they have raised the prices of most consumer silicone products in the United States, with some products increasing by as much as 20%. The reasons for the price increase include the imposition of tariffs by the United States and rising production and supply chain costs.
According to the latest report, the domestic silicone market is still in a clear buyer led state, with oversupply and limited demand being the main characteristics of the current market. The dual pressure of oversupply and weak demand continues to constrain the market trend. Despite a decrease in supply side production, the limited number of active buyers has led to sustained pressure on prices. On Monday, the domestic organic silicon market showed a trend of differentiation, with Hesheng's stock price soaring by 3.96% at one point, with a transaction volume of 459 million yuan. Relevant personnel from Hesheng stated that the current orders are stable and there are many pending orders. The current mainstream spot market transaction price for DMC is 11800-12500 yuan/ton. On the raw material side, the price of silicon metal remains fluctuating within a certain range, with limited cost support; Supply side: The operating load of individual factories continues to rise, and the inventory pressure in the industry is further intensifying. Leading enterprises in Shandong have implemented a closure strategy (note: partial pre-sales were completed through price discounts last weekend). On the demand side: the seasonal off-season effect persists, there is no substantial rebound in terminal demand, and downstream purchasing willingness remains low.
It is worth noting that on Monday, DMC, a leading enterprise in Shandong Province, suddenly implemented a disk closure operation. According to informed sources, the company has already secured some orders in advance through weekend promotion policies, and actual transactions have exceeded expectations. Overall, with the support of the closure of Shandong Fengdao Enterprises and the delivery of pre-sale orders, the quotations of other individual factories have remained stable. This action will have the following short-term impacts on the market: 1 Under the support of pre-sale orders, peer manufacturers maintain stable pricing; 2. However, the low-priced supply in the early stage has already lowered the market's psychological price, and downstream acceptance of current prices has decreased; 3. The market trading atmosphere is becoming more cautious, with a significant decrease in new orders. The current procurement behavior presents three major characteristics: rigid demand enterprises only maintain a minimum replenishment of inventory, intermediaries generally delay procurement plans until a lower point is reached, and the price game between buyers and sellers intensifies, resulting in actual transactions often experiencing hidden declines.
This market pattern of "quantity reduction and price stability" reflects that the supply-demand contradiction has not been substantially improved, and the industry will still face significant pressure to reduce inventory in the short term. Market analysis: The current market presents a typical contradiction between high inventory and weak demand. In the absence of substantial positive stimulus, it is expected that short-term prices will continue to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the pricing strategies of leading enterprises and changes in downstream replenishment pace.