In 2024, the domestic organic silicon DMC market experienced a complex situation of "first rising and then falling". In the first quarter, driven by the Spring Festival stocking wave, the market supply and demand performance was optimistic, and transactions were active. The demand during the traditional peak season has driven DMC prices to climb steadily, with an average price of 16700 yuan/ton in March and local quotations reaching 17000 yuan/ton, the highest level of the year. However, with the gradual release of new production capacity in the second quarter and a sudden increase in supply pressure, the problem of market supply-demand imbalance has become increasingly prominent, and prices have begun to fluctuate downward.
In August, multiple companies issued price increase letters. Although terminal demand has rebounded during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, the current situation of oversupply is still difficult to improve, and price recovery is limited. In late October, the opening price of Shandong linear body market was only 13000 yuan/ton, which had a significant impact on DMC prices. In addition, with the continuous weakening of downstream demand, enterprises are mainly focused on essential needs, and their procurement attitude tends to be cautious. At this point, DMC prices have fallen all the way to the lowest point of the year, with the lowest quoted price being 12900 yuan/ton, and some regions even quoting a level of 12500 yuan/ton.
At the end of the year, there were signs of market volatility again, with prices slightly rising. Currently, the DMC quotation is about 13000 yuan/ton, slightly lower than 12600 yuan/ton in some areas. At the same time, the production lines of individual enterprises such as Eken, Dongyue, Nengtou, and Xingfa continue to operate, and high operating rates and low inventory jointly support the pricing strategy of individual factories. Although the pre holiday stocking market is gradually opening up, the market is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the short term.
Looking to the future, although many individual projects in China are still in the stage of new construction or planned construction, many projects have been delayed or even suspended due to economic pressure and overcapacity. However, the existing production capacity base is relatively large, and the operational stability of the newly added production capacity in the early stage continues to improve. It is expected that by 2025, the total domestic production will continue to grow, and the increase in supply may exert downward pressure on prices throughout the year.
It is worth noting that with the increase in production and performance optimization of linear products, the competition between DMC and linear products has become increasingly fierce. At present, the linear body mainly targets the 107 rubber market, and in the future, silicone oil production enterprises may flexibly choose between DMC and linear body based on cost-effectiveness. This competitive situation will not only profoundly affect the market landscape of DMC, but also have a wide-ranging impact on the downstream 107 rubber and silicone oil markets.