The price rises first and the price stabilizes later! The countdown to the Spring Festival is still 9 days away. Although the DMC offer rose sporadically this week, the middle and lower reaches have basically withdrawn, and the participation of industry insiders has declined. Individual monomer plants in Shandong rose another 200 yuan today, and DMC quoted 16700 yuan/ton. Because the monomer plants are still in the process of loss, there are still many plans to reduce the negative production during the Spring Festival, and after a period of low-price game, the middle and downstream enterprises are in stock. The inventory pressure of the monomer plants is not large, and the main force is even reluctant to sell. Affected by this, the middle and downstream enterprises are more bullish about the post-holiday. The mainstream monomer plants also hope to follow the trend, Before the festival, a wave of ups and downs played a prelude, laying some foundation for a good start after the festival.


Silica: In terms of fumed silica, the first grade operates steadily, while silicon tetrachloride drops slightly, and the cost side has little impact on fumed silica. At present, the price of fumed silica quoted by enterprises in the 200 comparison table is 20000~26000 yuan/ton, and the price of the low end is still around 18000 yuan/ton. In terms of precipitated silica: at present, the price of precipitated silica for silicone rubber is maintained at 6800~7800 yuan/ton. In the last week before the festival, logistics has been shut down in succession, and most precipitated silica enterprises mainly collect money. On the whole, most of the small and medium-sized enterprises of high-temperature rubber and room-temperature rubber stopped production, and the white carbon black delivery basically ended.


After the festival, the supply of silica is sufficient, and the demand side maintains passive procurement. However, it is necessary to be alert to the negative operation of monomer plants, which may lead to the reduction of the supply of the first class. If the cost side price increases, the low-price fumed silica may have an upward opportunity. Precipitated silica is still the buyer's market, with a large resistance to rising, and the main reason is that it may run smoothly.


On the whole, silicon metal fell by 300 and methyl chloride rose by 200 this week. For monomer plants, the pressure on the cost side has not been relieved, and the profit improvement space is limited. Therefore, the heart of exploration is not changed. In addition, the low level stock in the middle and lower reaches before the festival has given some confidence. At present, the price increase of Shandong monomer plants seems to have begun to take effect. The confidence in the middle and lower reaches has been boosted to a certain extent, and the bottom position construction has increased, and the probability of "a good start" brewing after the festival has become greater.


However, we still need to understand that the production of single plants is only reduced, and the production capacity has not disappeared. Once the profit space increases, the operating rate will increase, and the oversupply will still exist for a long time in 2023. It is expected that there will be a period of supply and demand mismatch in the first quarter under the upstream production reduction and the downstream low level stock. After the festival, the stable and upward operation is a high probability operation. Whether it can be achieved in one go depends on how much force the demand side can help! However, the enterprises that gambled and hoarded goods before the year should not be too greedy if they rebound as scheduled after the holiday!