Since the industry conference unified the quotation at the beginning of the month, the supply contraction and order follow-up of individual factories have not met expectations, resulting in a continuous decline in the actual transaction price of DMC, falling to 11500-11700 yuan/ton in two weeks, a decline of more than 16%. The shipping strategy of individual factories has shifted from "clear stability and hidden decline" to "competitive bidding with discounts".
At the end of the month, the sustained low prices have stimulated some mid to downstream enterprises to start low-priced raw material reserves. Large orders are still under negotiation, but due to the traditional off-season, the terminal digestion capacity is limited. Mid to downstream enterprises have average order transactions, and the operating rate has generally decreased, further restricting the pace of large-scale procurement. The June organic silicon export data released yesterday showed that the export volume increased by about 21% month on month, but still fell by 16.87% year-on-year, indicating that after the first quarter's rush to export, the overdrawn demand is gradually recovering, but it still takes time to return to normal export levels.
It is expected that the next two days will still be a key point in the large order game, with prices already within the expected bottom buying range in the industry. There is fierce competition among all parties, and when some companies find it difficult to catch up with the decline, the middle and lower reaches will wait for the opportunity to concentrate on replenishing their positions.
Raw rubber market: Last week, raw rubber fell to 13000 yuan, which did stimulate some rubber mixing enterprises to enter the market and stock up. However, this week DMC fell again, and the pressure on the price of rubber mixing increased accordingly. Currently, the external quotation of raw rubber remains at 13300-14000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction has declined to 12800-13300 yuan/ton. As DMC further fell to 11500 yuan/ton, the trading of new rubber orders yesterday fell into a wait-and-see attitude again, and the market turned to a "one order discussion". Although there are many inquiries, the actual implementation is limited.
In the current market landscape, both individual factories and rubber mixing enterprises are closely monitoring the daily transaction prices of leading factories: the former needs to quickly follow up to maintain competitiveness, while the latter tries to take advantage of the situation to negotiate prices from multiple parties and strive for better conditions. As far as we know, the expected bottom price of raw rubber for most rubber mixing enterprises has been lowered to around 12500 yuan/ton, and with the gradual decline of raw rubber approaching DMC, the cost advantage of rubber mixing enterprises that previously had the ability to produce their own rubber is rapidly narrowing.
High temperature adhesive demand side: Currently, the silicon products industry is trapped in a dilemma of multiple pressures intertwined. Terminal demand continues to be weak, and enterprises are passively accumulating inventory, resulting in increasingly tight cash flow. The performance of traditional downstream sectors is sluggish: from January to June 2026, the retail sales of household appliances decreased by 7.4% year-on-year; In the 3C field, smartphone shipments in the second quarter decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of decline. At the same time, the implementation of the new national standard is imminent, and many small and medium-sized enterprises still face compliance difficulties. Order conversion is significantly hindered, and there are still significant obstacles to short-term demand recovery.
However, the market is not without highlights, and the explosion of AI hardware is opening up new incremental space for the silicone industry. Market forecast shows that by 2026, the shipment volume of China's new generation AI smartphones will reach 147 million units, accounting for 53% of the overall market. During the 618 shopping festival, the transaction volume of consumer grade AI products such as AI glasses increased by 200% year-on-year; The online retail sales of AI earphones and AI companion toys increased by 227.3% and 131.3% respectively year-on-year. The application scenarios of silicone gel will extend from multiple dimensions, including thermal guidance, sealing, comfortable wearing, and tactile simulation.
For silicone enterprises, this is not only an expansion of market space, but also a leap in technology and quality threshold. On the one hand, the increasing compliance requirements of the new national standard are accelerating the industry reshuffle. On the other hand, the emerging demand brought by AI hardware has put forward higher requirements for thermal conductive silicone, liquid silicone precision molding, medical grade tactile materials, etc. Enterprises with technical reserves and quality control capabilities will benefit first.
Overall, the current high-temperature adhesive market is in a structural turning point where traditional demand is under pressure and emerging demand is gaining momentum. In the short term, we still need to digest the pressure of off-season weakness and compliance transition, but in the medium to long term, the incremental demand driven by AI hardware is outlining a new growth curve for the industry.
On the demand side, orders for terminal silicon products continue to be weak. In the past two days, rubber mixing companies have mainly focused on stocking up and buying stocks after completing their essential needs. In order to maximize the safety margin of stocking, they have anchored themselves on the actual transaction price of DMC and engaged in fierce game and tug of war with rubber factories. If the raw rubber falls to the expected bottom price today, some rubber mixing factories will carry out a second round of low-level warehouse construction, and the inventory is expected to exceed the previous round. Overall, the raw rubber market is in a critical stage of "sharp decline game, waiting for large orders to increase volume".
Rubber mixing market: This week, the price of rubber mixing has dropped to 12500-13000 yuan/ton; At present, the price of raw rubber continues to decline, and the procurement strategy of rubber mixing enterprises has shifted from comprehensive observation to phased entry. Some manufacturers believe that the current price is close to the bottom, and the bottom buying sentiment has heated up, but the large order volume is still in the negotiation stage and has not yet been fully implemented. At the same time, due to the fact that the price drop of raw rubber is still lower than that of DMC, rubber mixing enterprises generally negotiate with raw rubber enterprises based on DMC prices, and continue to play a game to lower prices.
In terms of shipments, silicon product companies are constrained by the dual pressures of weak terminal orders and capital recovery, and only maintain essential procurement while prioritizing the digestion of their own inventory; In addition, the countdown to the implementation of the new national standard is about to begin, and some manufacturers are still struggling to explore new processes and formula standards. This uncertainty has to some extent suppressed the actual conversion of intended orders, and the overall stocking willingness is relatively limited.
Overall, the sustained low prices have to some extent activated some rigid demand and bargain hunting demand, but large-scale volume expansion still needs to wait for more clear signals to stop the decline. As individual factories start a new round of decline in raw rubber, the competitiveness of rubber mixing enterprises that previously relied on cost advantages to compete for orders at low prices is rapidly being smoothed out. Manufacturers are returning to the same starting line, and although the polarization has slightly eased, the competition pressure from all parties still remains under the off-season demand.