With the Spring Festival approaching, most of the middle and downstream manufacturers have withdrawn from the market for holidays, but the silicone is still rising. Is the Year of the Rabbit a good start? From the perspective of raw materials, the quotation of chemical grade metal silicon is 18800~19300 yuan/ton, while that of chloroform in Shandong is 300 yuan/ton, and the quotation is 3000 yuan/ton, which has no significant impact on the overall cost. This week, individual monomer plants in Shandong increased by 200 yuan/ton continuously, and today DMC reported 16500 yuan/ton; Other manufacturers, as always, look at him as a leader and are ready to explore.



The main reason for the market fluctuation is that the price before the holiday is basically at the low point in the year, and the risk of decline is small. There is an appropriate amount of stock in the middle and lower reaches, and some enterprises are good at receiving orders at low prices. Under the loss, it is natural that we cannot miss a chance of rebound. This week, some firmly bearish midstream and downstream enterprises may also be driven to prepare some goods. However, with the end of this week, it is expected that nearly 80% of midstream and downstream enterprises will enter the state of shutdown and production stoppage. It is also difficult to stimulate demand by pulling up. It is expected that DMC will maintain a stable and stable situation.


Raw rubber and mixed rubber market: At present, the situation of receiving orders in the raw rubber market continues to be general, and the loss margin is greater than DMC. Some monomer factories are forced to reduce the operating rate of the raw rubber plant. At present, the quotation of raw rubber remains at 17500-17800 yuan/ton, and some manufacturers can still exchange prices with quantity. In terms of rubber mixing, most enterprises have entered the state of holiday, and the high probability that they are still sticking to it is mainly collection. At present, the price of rubber mixing is maintained at 15500-16500 yuan/ton. Because the silicon products factory has a proper amount of stock before the year, the rubber mixing factory is also relatively restrained in stocking, and there is no stock pressure around the Spring Festival. Before the festival, raw rubber and rubber blend enterprises maintained stable price operation.


Silicone oil and 107 glue market: because the 107 glue of monomer factory is basically the same as DMC, there are many low price pre-sale orders in the past two weeks, and the inventory pressure is still acceptable, but the "market closure" is imminent, and the demand is difficult to continue to perform, and the risk of 107 glue accumulation during the Spring Festival still exists. In terms of silicon oil, from the current market, the price advantage of domestic silicon oil is not obvious. At present, the silicon oil price is 19000-20000 yuan/ton, and the demand is exhausted, so we have to follow up the downstream production suspension for holiday. In terms of procurement, silicon oil enterprises have some expectations after the holiday. Recently, it is the main force of "bargain hunting", and the inventory is relatively large. Foreign brand silicone oil: the supply is increasing. In order to promote the order, the traders are not lack of concessions in the negotiation of the firm offer. The foreign brand conventional methyl silicone oil is quoted at 21000~22000 yuan/ton.


On the whole, because the DMC price is at the low point in the year before the festival, some downstream companies still have the action of building positions at the bottom, but at present, the cost side is weak, which is bad for the single factory. Moreover, the downstream and terminal companies have successively stopped production, and can't wait to welcome the New Year. We hope that there will be a wave of red profits after the festival, while the market trading before the festival may be doomed to a flat end.


In general, the pent-up organosilicon market can also give you some confidence. Xiaobian still believes that there are three aspects to pay attention to after the holiday: the price of metal silicon; Operation rate of individual units during the Spring Festival; Downstream resumption rhythm after the festival. In February, there may still be repeated back-and-forth, but if the favorable policy ferments in March and April and inject a dose of stimulant into the terminal, then the demand recovery will be in sight, and the rise of the silicone market is still worth looking forward to although it is bumpy.