Small rebound! After the clear and steady decline of the single factory last week, the inventory under the low transaction level was slightly released. Yesterday, Shandong single factory ushered in the first rise of 2023. The DMC quoted 16400 yuan/ton, a small increase of 100. Today, the opening was stable, while the mainstream single factory remained stable, with the transaction price around 16800 yuan/ton. However, the downstream was ready to stop work for holiday, the market was in a semi-closed state, and the price increase rate was also priceless. Before the festival, the stock preparation of the middle and lower reaches is basically over, and the rebound and profit margin of the individual factories are very limited. More market is expected to start after the year.


From the perspective of supply side, the cost side of this week was mixed. Yesterday, the price of metal silicon was again reduced by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 # metal silicon was 18900~9600 yuan/ton, while the Shandong manufacturer of chloroform rose by 150 yuan yesterday, and the price was 2900 yuan/ton. Under the mutual adjustment of the rise and fall, the single factory was not affected by the cost side for the time being, and the focus was still on the demand side.


In terms of operating rate: following the long-term shutdown of two units in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, the planned shutdown of 120000 tons of units in Zhejiang this week, and the planned shutdown and maintenance of Kaihua units in January; In the southwest, northwest and central China, the load reduction operation continued. During the Spring Festival, only three or four single plants were in normal operation. At present, the operating rate of single plants was 66.35%. If the inventory accumulated quickly in the future, the load reduction phenomenon might still increase. It can be seen that the single plants that had lost more than four months also need to take a breather, and the willingness to stabilize the price was strong.


Demand side: Most of the midstream and downstream enterprises entered the "closed" state this week, and the winter storage stage ended temporarily. Due to the infection storm before the festival, the operating rate and logistics were hit by the double blow, resulting in the terminal demand could not be expanded, the raw material consumption was slow, and the way to compete with the economy was full of twists and turns. Some midstream and downstream enterprises also had a large inventory pressure, and it was difficult to make up large areas of positions after the festival.


In general, in the last week before the Spring Festival, the upstream and downstream remained stable and the market atmosphere gradually declined. However, it remains to be seen whether the terminal demand can be significantly boosted after the holiday. After all, paying for strong expectations has been humiliated countless times. It is expected that the midstream and downstream enterprises with goods in stock will first consume the inventory, and then make up the warehouse according to the quotation of the single factory and their own order receiving situation. The first ten days of February is basically the prelude to the resumption of work in the middle and lower reaches, and the improvement of demand is limited. Although the single factory also fell negative in January, the market supply is still sufficient. Therefore, the small editor believes that it is difficult to surprise the opening after the festival, and it is easy to explore the rise, and there is slight resistance to the transaction.