Entering Wednesday, the organic silicon market continued to operate strongly. From the perspective of the market, with the gradual increase of bottom building behavior, the trading volume on the market has significantly rebounded, and the profit margin of individual factories continues to improve. Yesterday, some individual factories in Shandong rose by 100 to 14800 yuan/ton in D4, which to some extent released a new round of exploration signals after the holiday.
Under the high selling strategy of upstream individual factories, downstream enterprises generally hold bullish expectations for post holiday raw material prices, prompting some enterprises to initiate phased stocking in advance to lock in the source of goods and avoid the risk of post holiday cost increases. However, the current market is not entirely optimistic. Under the influence of rising costs and transmission, the profit margins of small and medium-sized manufacturers continue to narrow. Currently, they tend to focus on small orders for essential needs and trade cautiously.
Overall, although the market's overall transactions have rebounded, there is a lack of sustained positive drivers, and the overall trend is still constrained by cost transmission capabilities. If individual factories further raise prices comprehensively after the holiday, it may stimulate the early release of some essential needs in the short term. However, small and medium-sized manufacturers have limited willingness to chase higher prices and mainly focus on digesting existing inventory, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that the market volatility will be limited at the end of the month, and specific trading after the holiday may be adjusted based on actual demand and upstream production patterns.
Raw rubber market: The price of raw rubber remained firm at 15500-16000 yuan/ton this week. On the supply side, the raw rubber equipment generally maintains a medium to low operating load, among which the long lead order cycle drives some downstream orders to be diverted to other raw rubber enterprises. At present, most of the pre-sale orders of enterprises have been scheduled until May, and the overall market spot inventory is low, further strengthening the market expectation of tight supply side.
In terms of demand, the acceptance of price increases in the terminal market is gradually increasing, coupled with significant growth in export and cross-border e-commerce orders. Rubber mixing enterprises are shipping smoothly, and their willingness to stock up has been strengthened. At the same time, with the continuous rise in raw material prices, the previously suppressed demand of rubber mixing enterprises is gradually being released. Especially in the early stage, most companies focused on digesting existing inventory and lagged behind in the pace of price increases. Currently, some companies still have basic procurement quantities to be completed, and some urgent orders are forced to follow up with high priced spot purchases, resulting in improved market transactions before the holiday.
Overall, the current high cost support remains stable, and downstream demand stocking continues to follow up. It is expected that the price of raw rubber will continue to be strong at the end of the month.