Entering late October 2026, China’s silica industry presents a structural divergence pattern where general products remain weakly stable while high-end products stay in short supply. The industry development focus has fully shifted toward special products with high technology and high added value. With the rapid upgrading of domestic new material industries, the drawbacks of overcapacity and sluggish downstream demand for traditional general precipitated silica continue to emerge, and market competition falls into low-price rivalry. In contrast, modified silica and hydrophobic fumed silica used in new energy tires, electronic silicones, high-end industrial coatings, lithium battery auxiliary materials and other high-end fields see surging demand, serving as the core pillar driving industrial growth. The polarization trend of the industry becomes more obvious compared with the first three quarters of this year.

　　From the supply side, China boasts a huge overall capacity base of precipitated silica, and its capacity keeps releasing, with sufficient supply of general products on the market. At present, core products of domestic small and medium manufacturers are mainly applied in traditional fields such as shoe material accessories, ordinary rubber products and low-end plastic filling. Severe product homogenization and low technical barriers make market competition fully rely on low-price sales. Affected by the continuous downturn of traditional terminal markets, downstream buyers only place replenishment orders based on actual needs, leading to slow market circulation. Finished product inventory of small and medium factories keeps accumulating, and the pressure of inventory digestion rises. Most small and medium enterprises adopt conservative operation strategies including production on demand and flexible price adjustment to sustain business, with long-term medium-low equipment operating rates. The redundancy of low-end industrial capacity is increasingly prominent.

　　In sharp contrast to the overcapacity of low-end products, the capacity of high-end special silica remains in continuous shortage. In recent years, domestic policies on environmental governance, energy consumption control and clean production supervision have been continuously tightened. Outdated production capacity featuring high energy consumption, heavy pollution and low output is speeding up its exit from the market. High-quality industrial resources, core technologies and high-end customers keep gathering in leading enterprises. In high-end tracks including highly dispersible tire-specific silica, hydrophobic modified fumed silica and high-purity modified silica, the existing effective domestic capacity cannot match the rapidly growing market demand from downstream sectors. Such high-end products impose extremely high requirements on production processes, surface modification technologies and purification techniques, with deep technical barriers. It is difficult to realize large-scale capacity expansion and substitution in the short run. Currently, order lead times for high-end products of major manufacturers keep extending, and the supply shortage is obvious. The pricing power and industry discourse power of leading enterprises keep improving, and the tight balance between supply and demand of high-end products will last for a long time.

　　The demand side acts as the core driving force for this round of structural divergence. As the largest application market for silica, the tire industry maintains stable development resilience. Recently, the supply of coal tar in China has contracted and its price has risen, directly pushing up the production cost and quotation of carbon black. Under such circumstances, the cost performance advantage of silica stands out comprehensively. Meanwhile, the domestic new energy vehicle industry keeps expanding rapidly. The market demand for green tires with low rolling resistance, high wear resistance, high safety and high stability has increased greatly, forcing domestic tire manufacturers to accelerate formula upgrading and continuously raise the proportion of highly dispersible modified silica in tire formulas. Due to the long certification cycle and strict access standards of tire products, the cooperation orders confirmed at present will be continuously released in the future, providing long-term, stable and definite demand support for the high-end silica market.

　　Apart from the core tire track, emerging industries such as silicones, high-end coatings, new energy lithium batteries and fine chemicals have achieved all-round growth, driving steady rise in consumption of special silica. In the silicone industry, silica serves as the core reinforcing filler for silicone rubber, widely used in high-temperature vulcanized silicone rubber, electronic sealants and construction waterproof sealants. Supported by the continuous expansion of electronic precision manufacturing, new energy packaging and construction waterproof industries, market rigid demand is steadily released. In the coating industry, hydrophobic modified fumed silica can significantly improve the weather resistance, anti-sedimentation performance and scratch resistance of coatings. It is widely applied in UV-curable coatings, industrial heavy anti-corrosion coatings, high-end automotive coatings and other scenarios with sustained strong market demand. In addition, high-end segmented fields including lithium battery separator modification, pharmaceutical excipients, food anti-caking agents and matting agents for daily chemicals develop rapidly. They set strict requirements on silica indicators such as purity, particle size uniformity, dispersion stability and ultra-low impurity content, further expanding the incremental space of high-end special silica. On the contrary, market demand in traditional fields such as shoe materials, ordinary rubber parts and low-end plastic filling remains sluggish, failing to boost consumption of general silica, and the development space of low-end tracks continues to shrink.

　　The foreign trade market achieves steady growth with optimized structure. The overseas green tire and high-end new material industries keep expanding. Europe, America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other regions have stable and growing import demand for highly dispersible modified silica and high-end fumed silica. Relying on mature modified production processes, stable product quality and sound supply chain systems, leading domestic silica enterprises see continuous growth in overseas export orders, and the export proportion of high-end products rises year by year. However, ordinary unmodified precipitated silica with low technical thresholds faces fierce competition from local production capacity in Southeast Asia. Overseas buyers commonly suppress purchase prices, continuously squeezing export profits. Most domestic enterprises take the initiative to adjust export structure, reduce the export scale of low-end products and focus on the export track of high-end modified products. At this stage, international trade barriers, fluctuations in international ocean freight rates and changes in overseas policies remain major uncertain factors affecting foreign trade of the industry.

　　On the cost side, the overall prices of raw materials and energy for silica production stabilize and rise in the fourth quarter, consolidating the cost bottom of the industry. Soda ash and quartz sand are core raw materials for silica production. At present, the domestic soda ash market is tight in supply and demand, and its market price rises steadily. Coupled with the seasonal increase in prices of industrial energy such as electric power and natural gas in autumn and winter, the overall production cost of silica is lifted, effectively limiting the room for price reduction of general silica. The cost differentiation pattern of the industry is obvious. Leading enterprises with self-owned mines, self-owned energy and integrated production lines enjoy remarkable cost advantages and stable profit space. In contrast, small and medium-sized enterprises fully relying on purchased raw materials face sustained pressure on production costs and shrinking profit margins. The pace of survival of the fittest and capacity integration in the industry keeps accelerating.

　　Comprehensive analysis and judgment from major industrial institutions show that China’s silica industry has completely stepped out of the extensive development mode featuring blind capacity expansion and vicious low-price competition, and officially entered a new high-quality competition stage centered on technology, quality and customized services. In the short run, general precipitated silica will maintain the trend of stable prices and inventory digestion with weak fluctuations in the fourth quarter, and there is little room for sharp price changes. High dispersible tire-specific silica, hydrophobic fumed silica, high-purity modified silica and other high-end products will continue to benefit from high-quality downstream tracks including new energy tires, electronic silicones and high-end coatings, sustaining a strong market with rising volume and price. In the long run, with continuous upgrading of downstream new material industries, high-end special silica has broad space for import substitution and will become the core growth line of the industry. Industry leaders mastering core modification technologies, stable mass production capacity and high-end customer resources will keep enjoying industrial dividends, and the market concentration of the industry will be further improved.