Entering late October 2026, China’s silica market continues to operate in a divergent pattern. General precipitated silica maintains stable prices for inventory digestion, transactions are mainly rigid-demand purchases from long-term clients with limited price fluctuations. Demand for highly dispersible tire silica and hydrophobic fumed silica remains robust. Some leading manufacturers have extended order lead times and keep quotations at high levels, and the price gap between high and low-end grades stays within a high range.

　　On the supply side, the total capacity of domestic precipitated silica remains sufficient. A large number of small and medium manufacturers focus their capacity on low-end applications such as shoe materials and ordinary rubber components, facing severe product homogenization. The operating rate of traditional downstream industries stays low, leading to continuous inventory accumulation of general grades. Small and medium factories adopt production-on-demand strategies to control output and ease inventory pressure, with little willingness for capacity expansion. Environmental protection and energy consumption supervision continue to be enforced. Outdated production lines with high energy consumption and substandard wastewater treatment keep exiting the market, and industrial capacity is rapidly concentrating in leading enterprises with surface modification technologies. In the fumed silica segment, domestic local capacity expands steadily. Nevertheless, the capacity release of high-end hydrophobic modified products fails to keep pace with rising demand from downstream electronics, pharmaceuticals and other sectors. High-end grades remain in tight supply, leaving broad room for import substitution.

　　On the demand side, the tire industry remains the primary growth market for high-end silica. Tightened supply of coal tar, the raw material for carbon black, keeps carbon black quotations high and further amplifies the cost advantage of silica in green tire formulations. Strict requirements of new energy tires for low rolling resistance and high grip drive tire manufacturers to continuously raise the addition ratio of highly dispersible modified silica. Tire formula certification takes a long cycle. Orders from formulas that have passed certification at present will be continuously delivered in the next 1 to 2 years, providing long-term and stable demand for high-end silica. Apart from tires, the silicone industry keeps boosting silica consumption. As the reinforcing filler for silicone rubber, silica is widely applied in electronic potting adhesives and construction sealants. In the coating sector, hydrophobic fumed silica is extensively used in UV coatings and industrial anti-corrosion coatings to improve anti-sedimentation and weather resistance of paint films. Demand grows steadily in emerging fields including lithium battery separator modification, pharmaceutical excipients and food anti-caking agents. Such high-end scenarios impose strict requirements on product purity, particle size and dispersibility, and the gross margin of these products is markedly higher than ordinary precipitated silica. In contrast, demand in traditional fields such as shoe materials and ordinary rubber filling remains sluggish and cannot stimulate consumption of general silica.

　　In foreign trade markets, the global green tire industry expands, and import demand for highly dispersible modified silica stays stable in Europe, America and Southeast Asia. Relying on mature modification processes and stable quality control, leading domestic enterprises achieve steady growth in overseas export orders of high-end products, and export structure is continuously optimized. Ordinary unmodified precipitated silica faces fierce competition from local production capacity in Southeast Asia. Overseas buyers tend to suppress purchase prices, continuously squeezing export profits. Many domestic manufacturers take the initiative to reduce exports of low-end products and shift to promoting high value-added modified grades. Fluctuations in international ocean freight rates and overseas trade barriers remain major uncertain factors affecting foreign trade businesses.

　　In terms of costs, soda ash, quartz sand, electricity and natural gas are core raw materials for silica production. In the fourth quarter, the soda ash market is tight in supply and demand with price upside potential. Combined with the seasonal rise of energy prices in autumn and winter, the overall production cost of silica increases, supporting the price bottom of general grades. Cost differentiation across the industry is prominent. Integrated leading enterprises with self-owned mines and energy enjoy outstanding cost advantages and stable profits. Small and medium factories purchasing all raw materials externally face heavy cost pressure and shrinking profit margins, and some production units operate under low load.

　　Industry institutions analyze that the silica industry has moved past the extensive competition stage marked by blind capacity expansion and vicious low-price competition. Future competition will center on surface modification technology, customized product development, stable quality control and supporting technical services. In the short term for the fourth quarter, general precipitated silica will most likely maintain stable prices and inventory digestion with low risks of sharp price swings. Highly dispersible tire silica and hydrophobic fumed silica will keep benefiting from high-quality downstream tracks including new energy tires, electronic silicones and high-end coatings, sustaining strong market performance. In the long run, with continuous upgrading of downstream new material industries, high-end special silica will become the core growth line of the industry. Leading enterprises mastering core modification technologies will keep harvesting industrial dividends, and market concentration will be further improved.