By mid-October 2026, China’s precipitated silica market continues to show a structurally divergent pattern. General precipitated silica maintains stable prices while manufacturers reduce inventory. Demand for highly dispersible tire-grade silica and hydrophobic fumed silica remains robust, and the price gap between different products widens further. Data from bulk commodity monitoring platforms shows that the mainstream ex-factory price of domestic general precipitated silica stays within 6300-6420 RMB per ton. Most transactions are based on downstream on-demand procurement. Large orders mainly come from long-term key clients, and speculative purchasing interest in the market is weak, leaving little momentum for sharp price hikes. In contrast, highly dispersible modified silica for new energy tires and hydrophobic fumed silica for electronic materials are in tight supply. Some major manufacturers have extended order lead times and keep their quotations at high levels.

　　On the supply side, total supply is sufficient while high-end products remain in short supply. China boasts massive total capacity of precipitated silica. Most small and medium-sized producers focus on low-end applications such as shoe materials and ordinary rubber component filling. Multiple precipitated silica production lines commissioned earlier keep releasing output. However, the operating rate of traditional downstream industries remains sluggish, leading to continuous inventory accumulation of general grades. Small and medium manufacturers mainly adopt flexible production scheduling and price discounts to promote sales, with little willingness to add new capacity. Under regular environmental protection and energy consumption regulation, production lines with outdated processes and substandard wastewater discharge keep exiting the market. Industrial capacity is rapidly concentrating in leading enterprises with surface modification technologies and clean production facilities. In the fumed silica segment, domestic local capacity keeps expanding, yet there are still shortcomings in mass production capacity of high-end hydrophobic modified products. High-end grades for electronics and pharmaceuticals still have room for import substitution, and high-purity products are in tight supply.

　　On the demand side, the tire industry remains the core growth driver for silica. Tightened supply of coal tar, the upstream raw material for carbon black, keeps carbon black prices at a high level, further highlighting the cost advantage of silica in green tire formulations. New energy tires have strict requirements for low rolling resistance, high wear resistance and strong grip, pushing tire manufacturers to continuously increase the proportion of highly dispersible silica in formulas. Tire formula certification requires a long cycle. Orders from capacities that have passed testing and certification at present will be continuously released over the next 1 to 2 years, ensuring relatively certain medium and long-term demand growth. Beyond tires, fumed silica sees booming demand across various downstream applications. In the silicone industry, silica acts as the reinforcing filler for silicone rubber. Demand rises steadily together with capacity expansion of electronic potting adhesives and construction sealants. In the coating industry, hydrophobic silica is widely used in UV-curable coatings and industrial anti-corrosion coatings to improve anti-sedimentation, weather resistance and scratch resistance of paint films. Demand for silica is steadily climbing in emerging fields including lithium battery separators, pharmaceutical excipients and food anti-caking agents. Such high-end scenarios impose strict requirements on product purity, particle size and dispersibility, with high technical barriers and much higher gross margins than ordinary precipitated silica. By contrast, demand in traditional markets such as shoe rubber and general plastic filling remains flat and cannot boost consumption of general silica.

　　In foreign trade, the global green tire industry keeps expanding, and import demand for highly dispersible modified silica stays stable in Europe, America and Southeast Asia. Relying on mature modification processes and supply chain advantages, leading domestic silica enterprises achieve steady growth in overseas export orders. Ordinary unmodified precipitated silica faces the impact of local production capacity in Southeast Asia. Overseas buyers tend to cut prices, continuously squeezing export profits. Many domestic manufacturers take the initiative to reduce exports of low-end products and shift export focus to high-end modified grades. International trade barriers and fluctuations in international ocean freight rates remain major uncertain factors affecting export business.

　　In terms of costs, soda ash, quartz sand, electricity and natural gas are core raw materials for silica production. Entering the fourth quarter, the soda ash market is expected to rise. Natural gas and electricity prices climb seasonally in autumn and winter, lifting the bottom production cost of silica and limiting room for price cuts of general grades. There is a prominent cost gap among enterprises. Leading manufacturers with self-owned mines and energy supporting facilities enjoy obvious cost advantages, while small and medium factories purchasing all raw materials externally face sustained profit pressure. Some small plants operate under low load.

　　Industry institutions analyze that the silica industry has moved past the extensive competition stage that merely chases production capacity and low prices. Future competition will center on surface modification technology, customized product development, stable quality control and supporting technical services. In the short term for the fourth quarter, general precipitated silica will most likely maintain stable prices and inventory digestion, with low probability of dramatic price swings. Highly dispersible silica specially for tires and hydrophobic fumed silica will keep benefiting from new material tracks including new energy tires, electronic silicones and high-end coatings, sustaining strong market performance. In the long run, with continuous development of downstream new material industries, high-end special silica will become the main growth line of the industry. Leading enterprises with independent R&D capabilities will continue to reap dividends from industrial development.