Entering early October 2026, the divergent pattern of China’s precipitated silica market has further intensified. Market trends of general precipitated silica show stark separation from highly dispersible modified silica and fumed silica. Data from bulk commodity monitoring platforms indicate that the mainstream ex-factory quotation of domestic general precipitated silica fluctuates narrowly within the range of 6350-6450 RMB per ton, with transactions dominated by rigid-demand orders and limited price swings. In sharp contrast, quotations of highly dispersible silica for new energy tires and hydrophobic modified fumed silica remain firm. Some grades face tight supply, narrowing downstream buyers’ bargaining room. The price gap between high-end and low-end products has widened to nearly 2000 RMB per ton.

　　The supply side is characterized by “overall overcapacity yet insufficient high-end supply”. After years of capacity expansion, China ranks first globally in the total capacity of precipitated silica. A large number of small and medium manufacturers focus their products on general precipitated silica for shoe materials and ordinary rubber goods. Newly built precipitated silica plants commissioned previously keep releasing capacity. Coupled with the low operating rate of traditional downstream rubber miscellaneous products, the overall inventory of general grades stays high. Most small and medium factories adopt production-on-demand and profit-concession strategies to digest inventory, which creates strong resistance for price hikes. Meanwhile, China’s dual energy consumption control and clean production supervision keep being enforced. A batch of backward production capacity with outdated processes, high energy consumption and substandard wastewater treatment keeps exiting the market. Industrial resources are continuously concentrated in leading manufacturers with core surface modification technologies and low-carbon production lines. In the fumed silica segment, domestic enterprises continue capacity expansion, yet the release rate of high-end hydrophobic product capacity still lags behind the growing demand of new material sectors, leaving huge room for import substitution.

　　On the demand side, the tire industry remains the largest growth market for silica. The supply of coal tar, the raw material for carbon black, keeps tightening and carbon black prices trend upward. The cost advantage of silica in green tire formulas continues to stand out, prompting more tire makers to accelerate formula adjustment. New energy vehicle tires have strict requirements for low rolling resistance and high grip, greatly lifting the dosage of highly dispersible silica. It should be noted that tire formula certification takes a long cycle. Orders from capacities that have completed certification at present will be continuously released in the next 1 to 2 years, ensuring relatively certain medium and long-term demand growth. Apart from tires, fumed silica enjoys booming demand across multiple downstream sectors. In the silicone industry, silica serves as the most critical reinforcing filler for silicone rubber. Demand rises steadily alongside capacity expansion of construction sealants and electronic silicone rubber. In the coating sector, hydrophobic silica is widely adopted in UV-curable coatings and industrial anti-corrosion coatings to improve anti-sedimentation and weather resistance of paint films. Besides, demand for silica keeps rising in emerging fields such as lithium battery separators, pharmaceutical excipients and food additives. These high-end applications impose stringent requirements on product purity, particle size and dispersibility, featuring high technical barriers and significantly higher gross margins than ordinary precipitated silica. In traditional fields including shoe rubber and general plastic filling, market demand remains sluggish and provides limited driving force for general silica.

　　In foreign trade markets, the global green tire industry keeps expanding, and import demand for highly dispersible modified silica stays stable in Europe, America and Southeast Asia. Relying on mature modification technologies and supply chain advantages, leading domestic silica enterprises see steady growth in overseas export orders. Nevertheless, ordinary unmodified precipitated silica faces fierce competition from local production capacity in Southeast Asia. Overseas buyers tend to suppress prices, continuously squeezing export profits. Many domestic manufacturers take the initiative to reduce exports of low-end products and shift to promoting high-end modified grades. Overseas trade barriers and fluctuations in international ocean freight remain uncertain factors affecting export businesses.

　　In terms of costs, soda ash, quartz sand and industrial energy are core raw materials for silica production. China’s soda ash market is expected to rise in price in the fourth quarter. Seasonal increases in natural gas and electricity prices will push up the bottom production cost of silica and restrict the room for price cuts of general products. Cost differentiation among manufacturers is also obvious. Leading enterprises with self-owned mines and energy supply enjoy prominent cost advantages, while small and medium factories purchasing raw materials externally face profit pressure.

　　Industry institutions analyze that the silica industry has left behind the extensive competition era simply focusing on capacity and low-price competition. Future competition will center on surface modification technology, customized product development, stable quality control and supporting technical services. In the short run for the fourth quarter, the general precipitated silica market will most likely maintain stable prices and inventory digestion, with low probability of sharp price ups and downs. Highly dispersible tire silica and hydrophobic fumed silica will keep benefiting from new material tracks including new energy tires, electronic silicones and high-end coatings, sustaining strong market performance. In the long term, with continuous development of downstream new material industries, high-end special silica will become the main growth line of the industry. Leading enterprises with R&D capabilities will keep reaping industry dividends.