In mid-October 2026, China's silica market maintained a structurally differentiated trend with cautious overall trading sentiment. Mainstream transaction prices of ordinary precipitated silica fluctuated within a range, and the market focus was on destocking existing inventories. On the supply side, China boasts a huge production capacity base for precipitated silica. A large number of small and medium-sized manufacturers mainly produce general-grade products. Production from previously commissioned facilities keeps releasing. Coupled with slower-than-expected recovery in end-user demand downstream, the overall inventory level of the industry stays relatively high. In traditional downstream sectors including rubber miscellaneous parts, shoe materials and civil sealants, orders remain sluggish and factory operating rates are low. Buyers mostly adopt hand-to-mouth purchasing strategies and show little willingness for large stock-ups. Traders experience slow goods movement, and manufacturers struggle to ease inventory pressure rapidly. In terms of raw material costs, soda ash and quartz sand prices fluctuate slightly. Coal, electricity and environmental operation costs account for a large share of total production expenses, continuously squeezing profit margins of small and medium factories. Some enterprises flexibly adjust production loads according to order volumes and reduce output temporarily to slow inventory accumulation, yet large-scale production shutdowns have not been seen in the industry.

　　High-end modified silica and fumed silica keep firm prices, and the price gap between high and low-end products widens further. Stable growth in the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China drives sustained demand for low rolling resistance green tires. Continuous iteration and optimization of tire formulas raise the proportion of high-dispersion silica added in tread formulations. It can effectively reduce tire rolling resistance and improve wet grip performance to meet the requirements of domestic and overseas tire labeling regulations. Affected by tight supply of coal tar raw materials upstream, carbon black prices stay high, forcing tire manufacturers to accelerate formula verification and mass production for replacing carbon black with silica. Leading silica producers have sufficient orders for high-dispersion modified silica dedicated to tires, and certain specifications face tight spot supply with strong product pricing power. Apart from the tire sector, demand for silica expands steadily in emerging fields such as silicone rubber, matting agents for UV coatings, composite materials and electronic potting compounds. Hydrophobic fumed silica serves as a core reinforcing filler in silicone rubber systems, which can significantly boost the tensile strength and transparency of finished products. When modified silica is applied in coating systems, it delivers uniform matting and anti-settling effects and improves weather resistance and scratch resistance of paint films. New material customers set strict requirements on product indicators including specific surface area, dispersion stability and surface activity, continuously expanding the incremental market for high-end silica.

　　The divergence in foreign trade becomes more prominent. Many overseas countries keep rolling out regulations on tire environmental protection and energy consumption. The EU tire labeling standards are continuously tightened. Major overseas tire manufacturers keep increasing procurement of high-dispersion modified silica. Domestic leading enterprises with stable quality control and export qualifications achieve steady growth in overseas orders, and foreign trade business has become an important revenue growth point. The export market for ordinary industrial precipitated silica is fiercely competitive. Purchasers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East often push down prices, local overseas competitors keep capturing market share, and low-end product exports yield thin profits. Many silica enterprises engaged in foreign trade actively adjust their product mix, cut the export proportion of low-priced general products, and focus on promoting high-dispersion and hydrophobic modified premium grades. They leverage product performance advantages to explore high-end new material markets in Europe and America so as to raise the overall profitability of foreign trade. At the same time, exchange rate fluctuations, changes in international logistics freight rates and various overseas trade barriers remain uncertain factors that China’s silica export sector needs to cope with in the long run.

　　Technological competition in the industry keeps intensifying, and surface modification technology has become a core barrier to seize high-end markets. Unmodified raw silica is rich in hydroxyl groups on its surface, which tends to agglomerate easily in organic systems and suffers from poor dispersion, limiting the exertion of reinforcing effects. After hydrophobic surface modification, the compatibility between silica particles and organic systems such as rubber, resin and silicone oil is greatly improved. The particles can disperse evenly and effectively enhance comprehensive properties of finished goods including reinforcement, wear resistance, anti-aging and weather resistance. Many domestic leading enterprises continue to increase investment in research and development. New modification production lines have finished capacity ramp-up one after another, advancing the import substitution of high-end silica. The logic of industrial competition has transformed. The development model of merely expanding production capacity and selling products at low prices is unsustainable. Customized modification formula development, supporting technical services and stable batch quality become the key for enterprises to build differentiated competitiveness. Some enterprises are developing green preparation routes for bio-based silica derived from rice husk ash. Relying on low-carbon raw materials, they conform to the global low-carbon development trend of new materials and open up new market tracks.

　　Energy consumption and environmental protection policies keep reshaping the industrial landscape, and pressure for green and low-carbon transformation remains. China’s dual control of energy consumption and pollutant emission regulation are continuously strengthened. Small and medium silica capacities with high energy consumption, backward processes and inadequate environmental protection supporting facilities face persistent rectification pressure. Inefficient backward capacities are exiting the market at an accelerated pace, and industrial capacity concentration rises steadily. Approval thresholds for new silica projects have been raised. Policies give priority to supporting high-end modification and clean green production projects while restricting new capacity for simple ordinary precipitated silica. The investment focus of the industry has fully shifted toward high-end and refined directions.

　　Based on analysis of multiple variables including supply, demand, costs and policies, industrial institutions predict that the structural trend of the silica market will continue in Q4. Weak downstream demand for low-end ordinary precipitated silica rules out sharp price hikes, and the market will focus on stabilizing prices, boosting sales and digesting inventories. Backed by strong support from new energy tire and silicone rubber new material sectors, high-dispersion tire-specific silica and hydrophobic fumed silica feature robust demand, and their prices are expected to stay within high ranges. In the medium and long term, capacity reshuffling in the silica industry will keep moving forward. Resources are continuously concentrated on leading enterprises that master core modification technologies, own stable high-quality customer channels and possess green production capacity. The industry has officially entered a new stage driven by high-end customization and green manufacturing. Product added value and supporting technical service capabilities will serve as core factors determining enterprises’ market competitiveness in the future.