In early October 2026, China's silica market maintained a pattern of structural differentiation, accompanied by mild price fluctuations. The mainstream transaction price of ordinary precipitated silica hovered around 6400 yuan per ton, and market trading sentiment remained cautious. On the supply side, China boasts a large total production capacity of silica. A large number of small and medium manufacturers focus on producing general precipitated silica. The capacity of ordinary grades commissioned in previous periods keeps releasing. Coupled with slower-than-expected recovery in downstream demand, the overall social inventory of the industry stays at a relatively high level. In traditional downstream segments including rubber miscellaneous parts, shoe materials and ordinary building sealants, operating rates remain low. Orders from end product manufacturers are weak. Purchasers generally adopt an on-demand procurement strategy and are unwilling to place bulk stock-up orders. Traders face slow shipment, and manufacturers continue to bear inventory pressure. Ordinary silica lacks upward price momentum. In terms of raw materials, soda ash and quartz sand experience minor price swings. Coal, electricity and other energy costs account for a high proportion of total production expenses. Together with environmental protection operation and maintenance costs, they continuously squeeze profit margins of small and medium-sized enterprises. Some factories flexibly adjust production loads according to order volumes and reduce output periodically to ease inventory backlog, though large-scale production suspension has not yet occurred.

　　High-end modified silica and fumed silica maintain firm prices, and the price gap between them and ordinary grades continues to widen. The steady expansion of new energy vehicle production and sales drives the growing demand for low rolling resistance green tires. Continuous iteration of tire formulas raises the proportion of high-dispersion silica added in tread formulas. It can effectively cut tire rolling resistance and improve wet grip performance, complying with domestic and foreign tire labeling regulations. Meanwhile, the carbon black market sees tight supply due to reduced availability of coal tar raw materials, keeping prices at high levels. This further accelerates tire manufacturers to complete formula verification and mass production for replacing carbon black with silica. Leading silica enterprises have sufficient orders for high-dispersion modified products for tire applications, and some specifications suffer from spot shortages and strong bargaining power. Beyond the tire sector, demand for silica expands steadily in new material fields such as silicone rubber, matting agents for UV coatings, composite materials and electronic potting compounds. In silicone rubber systems, hydrophobic fumed silica acts as a core reinforcing filler, which can greatly improve the tensile strength and transparency of finished products. For the coating industry, modified silica delivers uniform matting and anti-settling effects and enhances the weather resistance of paint films. Downstream new material clients set strict requirements on specific surface area, dispersion stability and surface activity indicators of products, opening up sustained incremental space for high-end modified silica.

　　The market shows further prominent divergence in foreign trade. Many overseas countries keep rolling out tire environmental protection and energy consumption regulations. The new EU tire labeling rules become stricter. Leading overseas tire manufacturers keep increasing procurement of high-dispersion modified silica. Domestic leading enterprises with stable quality control and export qualifications witness steady growth in overseas orders, and foreign trade becomes an important sector driving revenue growth. In contrast, the export market for ordinary industrial precipitated silica is highly competitive. Purchasers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East frequently press down prices, and local overseas competitors keep seizing market share, leaving thin profit margins for low-end product exports. Many silica enterprises engaged in foreign trade actively adjust their sales structure, reduce the export proportion of low-priced general products, and focus on promoting high-dispersion and hydrophobic modified high-end grades. They rely on product performance advantages to explore high-end material markets in Europe and America so as to raise the overall profit level of foreign trade business. At the same time, exchange rate fluctuations, changes in international logistics freight rates and overseas trade barriers remain uncertain factors that China’s silica export sector needs to cope with continuously.

　　Competition in industrial technology keeps heating up, and surface modification technology has become a core lever for enterprises to seize high-end markets. The surface of unmodified raw silica is rich in hydroxyl groups, which tends to cause particle agglomeration in organic systems and poor dispersion, limiting the exertion of reinforcing effects. After hydrophobic surface modification, the compatibility of silica particles is greatly improved. The particles can disperse uniformly in organic systems such as rubber, resin and silicone oil, effectively improving comprehensive properties of finished products including reinforcement, wear resistance, anti-aging and weather resistance. At present, many domestic leading enterprises keep increasing investment in research and development. Newly built modification production lines enter the capacity ramp-up phase one after another, continuously promoting import substitution of high-end silica. The fundamental logic of industrial competition has changed. The model relying merely on adding new capacity and selling products at low prices can hardly sustain. Customized modification formula development, supporting technical services and stable batch quality become the key for enterprises to build differentiated competitiveness. Some enterprises are also exploring the green preparation route of bio-based silica from rice husk ash. Leveraging low-carbon raw materials, they conform to the global low-carbon development trend of new materials and open up a brand-new track.

　　Environmental protection and energy consumption policies continue to reshape the industrial landscape, and pressure for green low-carbon transformation persists in the sector. China’s dual control of energy consumption and pollutant emission control keep tightening. Small and medium silica capacities with high energy consumption, backward processes and inadequate environmental protection supporting facilities face continuous rectification pressure. Inefficient backward capacities accelerate their exit from the market, and industrial capacity concentration rises steadily. Approval thresholds for new silica projects are raised. Authorities mainly encourage projects for high-end modification and clean green production while restricting new capacity for simple ordinary precipitated silica. The focus of industrial investment has fully shifted toward high-end and refined directions.

　　Industry institutions predict that the structural market trend of silica will continue throughout Q4, taking supply, cost and policy factors into comprehensive consideration. Driven by weak downstream demand, low-end ordinary precipitated silica is unlikely to see sharp price hikes. The market will mainly focus on stabilizing prices, boosting sales and digesting inventories. Benefiting from strong support from new energy tire and silicone rubber new material sectors, high-dispersion silica dedicated for tires and hydrophobic fumed silica feature robust demand, and their prices are expected to stay within high ranges. In the long run, the silica industry will keep accelerating capacity reshuffling. Resources will keep concentrating on leading enterprises that master core modification technologies, own stable high-quality customer channels and possess green production capacity. The industry has officially entered a brand-new development cycle driven by high-end customization and green manufacturing. Product added value and supporting technical service capabilities will determine the market competitiveness of enterprises in the future.