As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream organic silicon enterprises have gradually entered a holiday mode. According to Mr. Li, a well-known figure in the Guangdong industry, most downstream companies were in the final stage last week, with specific holiday periods concentrated between January 18th and 21st. From the perspective of holiday arrangements, this year is almost the same as previous years. Small downstream enterprises have started their holidays as early as after New Year's Day, while some silicon product manufacturers stopped accepting orders after the 15th day of the twelfth lunar month and completely stopped production on the 20th day of the twelfth lunar month.
In terms of prices, as of January 19th, Luxi Hydrolysis Network quoted 12300 yuan/ton, DMC spot mainstream quoted price range is 12800-13700 yuan/ton, raw rubber mainstream quoted price range is 1430-14700 yuan/ton, 107 rubber mainstream quoted price range is 14000-14200 yuan/ton, domestic silicone oil mainstream quoted price range is 14800-16500 yuan/ton, and imported silicone oil quoted price range is 18500-19500 yuan/ton. In addition, the quotation range for 421 # metal silicon is 12500-13100 yuan/ton, the quotation range for chloromethane is 2650-2750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation range for high hydrogen silicone oil is 7500-7800 yuan/ton. It is worth noting that the transaction prices of some individual enterprises increased by 50-100 yuan/ton last week.
Behind the stable price of organic silicon is the strong expectation of downstream enterprises to reduce production, which still faces challenges despite the general rise. On the supply side, the top integrated individual enterprises maintained a relatively high operating rate this week, mainly due to the attractiveness of the current profit level to the self use products of integrated enterprises. Compared with small and medium-sized individual factories, the raw material supply of top integrated enterprises is relatively tight, so their price adjustments are more easily accepted by downstream.
Meanwhile, 2024 is seen as the first year of commercialization for humanoid robots. Global tech giants such as NVIDIA and Google have entered the market one after another, and various humanoid robot startups have sprung up like mushrooms after rain. According to industry institutions' predictions, the global market size for humanoid robots is expected to reach approximately $2.2 billion in 2023, and this number is expected to grow to $32.5 billion by 2029. In addition, in 2025, there will also be an explosion of AI terminals, among which AI adult toys, as one of the important AI terminal scenarios, will shift from some manufacturers' "self promotion" to products that C-end consumers are willing to pay for. AI empowerment has revolutionized the adult toy industry chain, which originally had low added value, with a significant increase in value and a drastic change in profit models.
In terms of individual units, the operating rates of two first-line individual enterprises remained at 80% and 75% respectively this week, while the operating rates of integrated individual enterprises remained between 65% and 70%, and the operating rates of the remaining individual enterprises were between 50% and 60%. In addition, there was little change in the production of organic silicon in January compared to December. Major individual enterprises continue to reduce production and control output, with sufficient core pre-sale orders from top individual factories. The overall operating rate of the industry has fallen to around 67%, and the overall supply of the industry is currently maintaining a tight balance.
Looking ahead, the enormous potential of the humanoid robot and AI adult toy markets will be closely linked to the silicone industry, ushering in a golden opportunity period for the industry together.