As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream organic silicon enterprises are gradually taking a break. According to Mr. Li, a major businessman in Guangdong, the downstream was basically in the final stage last week, and there were holidays from January 18th to January 21st. From the perspective of holiday time, this year's Spring Festival holiday time is not much different from previous years. Smaller downstream factories have started to take holidays after New Year's Day, and some silicon product factories do not accept orders after the 15th day of the twelfth lunar month and close down after the 20th day of the twelfth lunar month. As of January 19th, the Luxi hydrolysate website reported a price of 12300 yuan/ton, the mainstream spot price for DMC was 12800-13700 yuan/ton, the mainstream spot price for raw rubber was 14300-14700 yuan/ton, the mainstream price for 107 rubber was 14000-14200 yuan/ton, the mainstream price for domestic silicone oil was 14800-16500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price for imported silicone oil was 18500-19500 yuan/ton. 421 # metal silicon is reported at 12500-13100 yuan/ton, chloromethane is reported at 2650-2750 yuan/ton, and high hydrogen silicone oil mainstream is reported at 7500-7800 yuan/ton. Last week, the transaction prices of some individual enterprises increased by 50-100 yuan/ton. The main reason for the stable price of organic silicon is the strong expectation of downstream production reduction, but there is still difficulty in achieving a general increase. On the supply side, the top integrated individual enterprises still maintained a relatively high operating rate this week, mainly because the current profit level is sufficiently attractive to the self use products of integrated enterprises. Compared to other small and medium-sized individual factories, the raw material supply of top integrated enterprises is relatively tight, so each round of price adjustment is also the most easily accepted brand by downstream.
Industry boom! Another huge change in the new track! 2024 is hailed as the first year of commercialization for humanoid robots. On the one hand, global tech giants such as Nvidia and Google have announced their entry into the market, and various humanoid robot startups have sprung up like mushrooms after rain. It seems that running a humanoid robot is not difficult and can attract traffic through flashy actions. According to industry data, the global market size for humanoid robots is expected to reach approximately 2.2 billion US dollars in 2023, and by 2029, the global industry size for humanoid robots is expected to reach 32.5 billion US dollars. 2025 is also a big year to welcome the explosion of AI terminals, and AI adult toys are one of the important AI terminal scenarios. For AI adult toys themselves, the industry will shift from some manufacturers' "self promotion" to C-end consumers willing to pay by 2025. The adult toy industry chain was previously a relatively traditional silicone manufacturing industry with low product added value, as AI empowerment brought revolutionary changes to the original adult toy industry chain. After being empowered by AI, an adult toy that was originally priced at 99 yuan can immediately sell for thousands of yuan, with a value increase of more than 10 times. Currently, the prices of AI adult toys on the market are generally around 1000-4000 yuan. AI empowerment has led to a significant increase in the value of adult toys and a drastic change in profit models. The industry believes that the market potential for humanoid robots and AI adult toys is enormous, both related to silicone, and will usher in a golden period of industry opportunities.
Single unit device dynamics: According to statistics, the operating rates of two first-line single unit enterprises remained at 80% and 75% respectively this week, the operating rate of integrated single unit enterprises remained between 65% and 70%, and the operating rates of other single unit enterprises remained between 50% and 60%. In addition, the production of organic silicon in January showed little change compared to December.
Single unit device dynamics: Major single unit enterprises continue to reduce production and control output, with sufficient core pre-sale orders from top single unit factories. The overall operating rate of the industry has fallen to around 67%, and the overall supply of the industry is currently maintaining a tight balance. Normal operating equipment: Hesheng, Luxi, Xin'an, Hubei Xingfa, Yuntou, Jiangxi Xinghuo, Dow, Xinyue, Wacker Load reduction equipment: Inner Mongolia Hengyecheng, Zhejiang Zhongtian, Hebei Sanyou, Dongyue, Inner Mongolia Xingxing
Metal silicon market: Last week, the main contract price of 421 # in China was reported at 11650-12750 yuan/ton, fluctuating by 50-100 yuan. The high opening volatility of futures has given some confidence boost to industry players. However, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the drive for individual factories to replenish inventory is insufficient, and many manufacturers have followed the market to make offers. The focus of spot trading has remained relatively stable.
DMC market: Last week, the overall market remained stable with a slight increase of 50-100 yuan, and the mainstream price was 12800-13700 yuan/ton. The current exchange rate in Guangdong region is maintained at 12950-13550 yuan/ton, and the DMC cracking material is stuck at 12300-12400 yuan/ton. The purchase price of raw materials is mostly between 4200-4300 yuan/ton. It is understood that individual factories are actively accepting orders, with some production enterprises raising factory prices. Traders are eager to collect payments and actively offer discounts to promote transactions. Downstream factories are slowing down their procurement efforts and negotiating actual transactions.
Silicone oil market: The domestic silicone oil market is narrow and weak, with little fluctuation. The overall transaction price of silicone oil in the domestic market is mainly over 15000 yuan, and the import market is quoted at 18200-19000 yuan/ton to maintain stability. The overall trend of upstream DMC is relatively stable, with decent cost support. Downstream factories are in urgent need of purchasing, and there are no major hoarding, resulting in average market transactions.
107 glue market: Currently, the domestic 107 glue market is stabilizing and consolidating. The weak supply and demand continue, with demand becoming weaker and transactions revolving around rigid demand. The price of 107 glue from leading manufacturers is 13500 yuan/ton, imported 107 glue is priced at 15500-16000 yuan/ton, mainstream domestic brands are priced at 13500-14300 yuan/ton, and cracked 107 glue is priced at 13200-13300 yuan/ton. From the perspective of the demand side silicone adhesive market pattern, in November and December of previous years, due to the rush of real estate construction, there will be some urgent demand in the silicone adhesive market. At the end of 2024, based on market demand and policy support, a certain amount of market demand was absorbed.