As the Chinese New Year approaches, the organic silicon market in 2025 is ushering in the first round of outlook for the new year. Under the festive atmosphere, the enthusiasm for stocking up in the market has quietly increased, but the performance of terminal orders has been mediocre, and downstream shipments have been hindered, leaving the post holiday market still shrouded in a bearish shadow, and the willingness for winter storage has not yet been actively demonstrated.
Entering January, the operating rate of individual units is expected to partially decrease, while the gradual arrival of downstream replenishment waves has caused individual manufacturers to hover in a stable and rising mentality. However, the year-end hoarding willingness of midstream and downstream enterprises appears to be fluctuating. The stability and improvement of the organic silicon market in 2025 will largely depend on whether the pre Spring Festival stocking peak can arrive as scheduled.
In the 107 glue and silicone oil markets, DMC prices remained stable before the holiday, and the two major markets also followed suit. But the low price of hydrolyzed materials makes the cost support of 107 glue slightly insufficient. In terms of demand, silicone adhesive companies are still actively laying out before the Spring Festival, and stocking actions may be gradually launched after price negotiations. It is expected that the price of 107 glue may loosen slightly in January, and the overall trend will remain weak and stable. The silicone oil market is impacted by the winter off-season, and both procurement and sales are facing challenges. Silicone oil companies are struggling in the dilemma of rising costs and inability to keep up, with profits severely squeezed. At present, only a few large silicone oil factories are able to maintain long-term cooperation with downstream large factories due to their financial and quality advantages, with stable orders; However, most small and medium-sized silicone oil enterprises are facing pressure to accept orders.
In terms of the raw rubber market, rising costs have led some rubber mixing enterprises to switch to on-site procurement to alleviate inventory pressure. However, the high operating rate of the rubber production unit in the monomer factory still results in significant overall supply pressure. On the demand side, the buying sentiment of downstream rubber mixing enterprises is gradually dissipating, with abundant inventory after the holiday, increased pressure to collect payments, and weakened willingness to replenish inventory. It is expected that after the holiday, the locally rebounding raw rubber will once again enter into negotiations to make the situation worse.
The mainstream quotation in the mixed rubber market remains stable. The accumulation of payment pressure has left most rubber mixing enterprises with no time to pay attention to the trend of raw rubber, and stocking up is carried out as needed. Some companies with high cash flow pressure are even considering giving up their A-class customer qualifications to ensure cash flow. In terms of demand, downstream silicon product companies plan to stock up in moderation before the Spring Festival, but it is expected that the stock volume will not increase significantly. Most companies focus on technological innovation, product upgrades, and strategic layout after the New Year.
Looking ahead, the silicone market may continue to show a volatile pattern after the holiday. The raw material industrial silicon market is still constrained by the pattern of oversupply, with slight fluctuations in futures prices and a stable decline in spot metal silicon prices, providing limited support for organic silicon. Low prices may continue to exist, but the degree of station profitability may significantly weaken. In addition, there will be no new single units put into operation in 2025, and upstream enterprises are making every effort to expand and operate downstream industrial chains. New business models continue to emerge, and the market competition pattern will undergo profound changes.
The industry is not very concerned about whether 2025 can usher in a "good start". Small increases and decreases have become the norm, and end users' on-demand purchases are basically stable. It is difficult to significantly increase consumption before the new year, and downstream enterprises have relatively low hoarding efforts. However, winter storage has not disappeared. The market mentality of upstream and downstream enterprises is stable, with most focusing on order delivery. Some enterprises may launch the final wave of profit sharing promotions for core large players to lay out the market after the new year, which may trigger the arrival of a small peak in winter storage. In short, the key to the market game in January lies in winter storage and stocking, which will open a new chapter for the organic silicon market in 2025.