Entering the Chinese New Year, we welcome the first wave of market outlook for 2025. In the current increasingly festive atmosphere, the market's stocking sentiment has heated up. However, the performance of terminal orders has been mediocre, and downstream companies' shipments have been hindered, resulting in a lingering bearish sentiment in the post holiday market and a lack of enthusiasm for winter storage.
As we enter January, the operating rates of some individual units are expected to decrease. With downstream companies gradually restocking, although individual manufacturers have a stable and exploratory attitude towards price increases, the year-end stocking willingness of midstream and downstream enterprises still shows signs of wavering. Whether the start of the organic silicon market in 2025 can stabilize and improve largely depends on whether the small peak of stocking before the Spring Festival can arrive as scheduled.
From the perspective of downstream enterprises, large-scale stocking behavior requires certain price discounts to stimulate, but individual manufacturers, under profit pressure, have been particularly cautious in their concession operations due to the "anti internal competition" consensus they have finally reached. Overall, the pre holiday bullish sentiment has emerged, but whether today's opening can usher in the traditional "good start" is still highly anticipated.
In the 107 glue and silicone oil market, DMC prices remained stable before the holiday, and 107 glue and silicone oil companies also followed suit to stabilize prices. However, the low price of hydrolysis materials has weakened the cost support of 107 glue. In terms of demand, downstream silicone rubber companies are still actively laying out their plans before the Spring Festival, and stocking actions may be carried out gradually based on price negotiations. It is expected that the price of 107 glue may loosen in January, maintaining a weak and stable trend. However, the silicone oil market is affected by the winter off-season, and both procurement and sales are not smooth. Silicone oil companies are facing the dilemma of rising costs but unable to keep up, resulting in severe pressure on profits. At present, only a few large silicone oil factories maintain long-term cooperation with downstream large factories due to their financial and quality advantages, resulting in stable orders, while most small and medium-sized silicone oil enterprises face significant order pressure.
In terms of the raw rubber market, due to rising costs, some rubber mixing enterprises have shifted their raw rubber equipment from self-produced to on-site procurement to alleviate inventory pressure. However, the operating rate of the raw rubber unit in the individual factory is relatively high, and the overall supply pressure is still high. In terms of demand, the buying sentiment of downstream rubber mixing enterprises is gradually subsiding, with abundant inventory after the holiday, increased pressure to collect payments, and weakened willingness to replenish inventory. It is expected that the local rebound of raw rubber after the holiday will once again present negotiations to let Lige play.
The mainstream quotation in the mixed rubber market remains stable. Due to the accumulation of payment pressure, most rubber mixing enterprises have no time to pay attention to the trend of raw rubber and purchase on demand. Some companies with high cash flow pressure even consider giving up the qualification of maintaining A-class customers to ensure smooth cash flow. In terms of demand, downstream silicon product companies plan to stock up in moderation before the Spring Festival, but it is expected that the stock volume will not increase significantly. Most companies focus on technological innovation, product upgrades, and strategic layout after the New Year.
In summary, the silicone market may continue to show a volatile pattern after the holiday. The raw material industrial silicon market is still constrained by the pattern of oversupply, with futures prices fluctuating slightly and spot metal silicon prices tending to stabilize and fall back, providing limited support for organic silicon. Low prices may continue to exist in the future, but the degree of station profitability may significantly weaken. In addition, there will be no new single units put into operation in 2025, and upstream enterprises are making every effort to expand and operate downstream industrial chains. New business models continue to emerge, and the market competition pattern will undergo profound changes.
The industry is not very concerned about whether 2025 can usher in a "good start". Small increases and decreases have been widely accepted, and end users' on-demand purchases are basically stable. It is difficult to significantly increase consumption before the new year, and downstream enterprises have relatively low hoarding efforts. However, winter storage will not disappear. The market mentality of upstream and downstream enterprises is stable, with most focusing on order delivery. It is not ruled out that some enterprises may launch the last wave of profit sharing promotions for core large customers to lay out the market after the new year, which may trigger the arrival of a small peak in winter storage. In short, the key to the market game in January lies in winter storage and stocking up!