Spring mountains should be visited everywhere, and one should see several peaks of flowers in a month. Returning after the holiday and officially entering a new year, we also welcome the first wave of market outlook for 2025! From the perspective of the market, due to the approaching Spring Festival, there has been an increase in stocking sentiment, but the performance of terminal orders is average, and downstream companies are experiencing sluggish shipments. There is still a bearish sentiment towards the post holiday market, and the winter storage status is not yet positive. Entering January, the operating rate of some individual units is expected to decrease, accompanied by downstream restocking. The mentality of individual factories to explore price increases while maintaining stability still exists. However, the year-end inventory of middle and downstream units is still fluctuating. Whether the organic silicon market can stabilize and improve in 2025 still depends on the small peak of stocking before the Spring Festival. From the perspective of downstream mentality, large-scale stocking still requires a wave of profit incentives, but individual factories, under the pressure of profit suppression, have finally reached a consensus on "anti internal competition" and are quite cautious in profit concessions. Overall, the pre holiday bullish sentiment has set the stage. Can today's opening have a regular "good start"? Are you looking forward to it?
107 glue and silicone oil market: DMC prices remained stable before the holiday, and 107 glue and silicone oil companies also followed suit. Currently, the price of 107 glue is 13400-13700 yuan/ton, and the market price of silicone oil is 14800-15500 yuan/ton. In terms of 107 glue, although DMC is strong, the hydrolysis material is still at a low level, and the cost support has weakened to some extent; In terms of demand, downstream silicone rubber companies are still laying out their plans before the Spring Festival, and stocking up actions may follow up gradually based on negotiated prices. It is not ruled out that the main 107 rubber factories may negotiate discounts with core large customers. It is expected that the price of 107 rubber may loosen in January, maintaining a weak and stable pattern. In terms of silicone oil, under the influence of the winter off-season, the procurement and sales of silicone oil are not very smooth. Firstly, the procurement needs to be increased, and the inventory of DMC needs to be increased during the freezing period; Secondly, the prices of silicone oil from several individual factories are relatively low, and silicone oil companies are facing cost increases but unable to keep up, resulting in severe suppression of profits. At present, there are only a few large silicone oil factories. Due to relatively good funds and quality, they maintain long-term cooperation with downstream leading factories, and orders are relatively stable. Most small and medium-sized silicone oil enterprises generally express high pressure to accept orders.
Raw rubber market: Currently, the market price for raw rubber ranges from 14300 to 14500 yuan/ton. On site, due to rising costs, rubber mixing companies with rubber production facilities have gradually shifted from self-produced to on-site procurement, easing rubber inventory. However, the operating rate of rubber production facilities in individual factories is relatively high, and overall supply pressure remains high; In terms of demand, the impact of downstream rubber mixing enterprises' buying price increases is gradually diminishing, and inventory remains abundant after the holiday. However, the pressure to collect payments continues to increase, and there is a lack of replenishment in terms of inventory. It is expected that after the holiday, the locally rebounding raw rubber will once again present negotiations to let Lige play. The mixed rubber market: This week, the mainstream quotation in the mixed rubber market remained stable at 12800~13500 yuan/ton. Specifically, due to the increasing pressure of payment collection, most rubber mixing enterprises have no time to pay attention to the trend of raw rubber, stock up and purchase according to demand, and some have high cash flow pressure, even considering giving up the qualification of maintaining A-class customers. In order to ensure smooth capital flow, order transactions are often impacted by low-priced cash. In terms of demand, downstream silicon product companies have plans to stock up on a moderate amount before the Spring Festival. However, due to the lack of significant changes in their own orders, it is expected that there will be no major breakthrough in stocking up. Most companies have a long-term vision, focusing on technological innovation, product upgrades, and strategic layout after the New Year.
In summary, the silicone market may continue to fluctuate after the holiday. The raw material industrial silicon market is still constrained by an oversupply pattern, and under the influence of market sentiment, futures prices have maintained slight fluctuations, while spot metal silicon prices have tended to stabilize and fall, providing moderate support for organic silicon. In the future, low prices will continue in 2025, but the degree of profitability may significantly weaken. In addition, there will be no new single units put into operation in 2025, and the upstream is making every effort to expand and operate the downstream industrial chain. New business models continue to emerge, and the market competition pattern will undergo profound changes. The industry is not very concerned about whether 2025 can usher in a "good start", and everyone can understand and accept small rises and falls. End users' on-demand procurement is basically stable, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in consumption before the new year. The downstream hoarding intensity is relatively low compared to previous years, but winter storage will not disappear. The market mentality of upstream and downstream enterprises is relatively stable, with most focusing on order delivery. However, it cannot be ruled out that some enterprises may launch the last wave of profit sharing promotions for core large customers to layout the market after the year, which may trigger the arrival of a small peak in winter storage. In short, the key to the game in January is winter storage and stocking up!