In 2024, the silicone export market finally experienced a long-awaited recovery. According to relevant industry data, silicone (including raw rubber, mixed rubber, and liquid rubber) is expected to reach an export volume of over 130000 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7%. After a period of weakness in the past few years, silicone exports have shown strong growth momentum this year, becoming a new opportunity for the industry. Although 2024 is expected to be a year of recovery, in the long run, it is difficult for the silicone market to sustain high-speed growth. Industry insiders predict that the growth rate of the industry will slow down after 2025, and it is expected that the compound annual growth rate will drop to 3% between 2025 and 2028. As the market gradually enters the stage of stock competition, especially among leading enterprises, the competition for market share becomes extremely fierce, and every market share becomes more precious.
In terms of price, the silicone market remains relatively stable. The transaction prices of raw rubber and mixed rubber are basically the same, with some orders having slightly increased prices. Currently, most silicone production enterprises are in a low load production state, so it is expected that the prices of raw rubber and mixed rubber will continue to remain stable in January. The recovery of demand for rubber compound is relatively slow, and it is also difficult to clear inventory. It is expected that the spot price of rubber compound in January will remain fluctuating in the bottom range. As of December 30th, the price of Luxi hydrolysate is 12300 yuan/ton, the mainstream spot price of DMC is 13000 to 13800 yuan/ton, the price of raw rubber is 14300 to 14700 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of 107 rubber is 14000 to 14200 yuan/ton, the price of domestic silicone oil is 14800 to 16500 yuan/ton, and the price of imported silicone oil is 18500 to 19500 yuan/ton. The quotation for 421 # metal silicon is 12500 to 13100 yuan/ton, the price range for chloromethane is 2650 to 2750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation for high hydrogen silicone oil is 7500 to 7800 yuan/ton.
Recently, the price of raw rubber in the market has risen, mainly due to the almost empty inventory of manufacturers and the urgent need to replenish inventory, leading to accelerated procurement activities. At the same time, the significant increase in domestic demand at the end of the year further drove up the price of raw rubber. This upward trend in prices has gradually spread downstream, giving silicon product companies the motivation to raise prices.
In addition, Jiangsu Aikewei Technology Co., Ltd. ("Aikewei") has also made significant progress recently. On December 26th, Aikewei publicly disclosed its prospectus and officially launched the listing process. The company plans to publicly issue no more than 26.6667 million shares, with an expected fundraising of 600 million yuan, of which 60 million yuan will be used for investment in the oxime series high-end fine chemical project. Aikewei focuses on the research and development, production, and sales of oxime series fine chemical products, including oxime type silane (such as methyl tributone oxime silane, vinyl tributone oxime silane, etc.). This listing brings more capital support to the company, further enhancing its market competitiveness, and providing financial support for business expansion and technology research and development.