The price increase of the organic silicon industry chain has spread from individual giants to the middle and downstream links. Although the supply and demand of the organic silicon industry chain in the medium term are still not optimistic, the price increase has spread from upstream to downstream, indicating that the short-term peak season support for the improvement of business prosperity is sustainable. Eken New Anxin's stock price increase announcement is being implemented in an orderly manner. The giant has clearly stated that the price increase is aimed at pushing the industry out of the low price competition quagmire and returning to a healthy competitive environment. The implication is that we don't want to engage in a price war anymore, which is also a positive signal. Industry insiders believe that market sentiment will continue to heat up in September, and further incremental demand needs to be boosted. The effectiveness of demand still needs to be observed, and external signals indicate that the US dollar interest rate cut is expected to be implemented in September. It is expected that the volume and price of the silicone market will continue to bottom out, and it is still recommended to focus on the actual release of 1 million tons of new production capacity within the year.
Monitoring data shows that as of August 28th, silicone oil has surged by 500-700 yuan, with mainstream manufacturers reporting 15200-17000 yuan/ton. DMC orders are sufficient and scheduled until mid September. The spot price is reported at 13700-14000 yuan/ton, the mainstream spot price for raw rubber is reported at 14700-15300 yuan/ton, and the high molecular weight raw rubber is reported at 15500-15900 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation for 107 glue is 13900-14300 yuan/ton, for 421 # metal silicon it is 12000-13000 yuan/ton, and for methyl chloride it is 2100-2200 yuan/ton. The news of silicone oil rising by 500-700 has surged to the hot search of industry platforms. Unconsciously, in recent years, "silicone oil" has become a key product for major brands to expand their production layout. It is worth noting that major ethylene based silicone oil manufacturers, which have been trapped in overcapacity in the low price range, are engaged in a "big battle" of steady decline.
The latest report from industrial institutions shows that there is still significant room for China to increase its market share in the global organic silicon market, and there is great potential for export growth. Considering the continuous improvement of China's organic silicon technology level and product competitiveness, it is expected that the export of organic silicon will still surpass the central market in the second half of 2024. According to the production scheduling data of top brands, the export of organic silicon in Q3 2024 is expected to increase by more than 12% year-on-year, and the export of silicone products is expected to increase by 10% -15% year-on-year. The production scheduling forecast of individual factories within the year still underestimates the overall final export; Most mature markets have improved demand and low inventory; If future tariff expectations are strengthened and overseas inventory replenishment is initiated, there will be a wave of "export rush" in the industry.

New material silicone oil market: The domestic silicone oil market has rebounded and stabilized, with mainstream brand prices fluctuating by 500 yuan per ton, with mainstream quotes ranging from 15200-17000 yuan per ton. Currently, most orders are transacted in the low-priced region. The industry believes that with the return of maintenance equipment in the early stage, the pressure on the supply side has increased, and the demand side is affected by the strong demand sentiment, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is slightly insufficient, and the trading volume has maintained a 100-200% increase to stabilize customer operations. The pressure of supply recovery and demand decline continues to suppress prices, and it is expected that new silicone oil will continue to maintain a stable, moderate, and slight rebound trend.
Imported silicone oil market: Dealers mainly stabilize prices and clear inventory, with sporadic offers ranging from 19500 to 21500 yuan/ton. The market is mainly driven by narrow demand. Dow, Shinetsu, Wacker and other facilities have reduced production, resulting in an overall decrease in import output. However, it is difficult to increase shipment volume, and inventory has increased to some extent. Downstream demand is urgent, the market is cautious in hoarding, and the overall transaction situation is average.
Cracking material silicone oil market: The domestic cracking material silicone oil market is steadily consolidating and operating, with prices in Guangdong ranging from 13500 to 14300 yuan/ton (excluding tax). In terms of cost, the current purchase price of waste silicone oil is 4500~4700 yuan/ton (excluding tax), which provides weak support for cracking material silicone oil. The stable production of cracking materials in Guangdong has seen a narrow upward adjustment, with pressure on the supply side to support the market. However, due to overcapacity and average downstream demand, market supply digestion is slow, and most facilities continue to reduce production.