As time progresses towards September, with the support of macro positive factors, there are signs of a peak season in demand. Yesterday, we conducted a voting survey on the September trend, and 43.97% said they would maintain a slight upward trend, 37.59% said they would stabilize first and then decline, and 18.44% said they would soon decline; From this, it can be seen that everyone still has certain expectations for the September market, and is not as pessimistic as expected. Yesterday, industrial silicon finally saw a surge, with a daily increase of+3.20% and a rise of 305 yuan. The closing price of the 2411 contract, the main force of industrial silicon, was 9845 yuan, which is one step closer to the "ten thousand yuan account". Whether it can be confirmed to rebound is still not optimistic in the industry, as there is significant pressure on the supply side to reduce inventory, and the rise in spot prices still lacks substantial driving force. For the organic silicon market, as the demand for DMC increases in the downstream direction and equipment in Zhejiang stops for maintenance, the supply of spot goods is reduced. Other DMC companies are shipping smoothly, and with the support of pre-sale orders, they have sufficient confidence in raising prices. Currently, DMC remains stable at 13500~13900 yuan/ton.
Raw rubber market: Last week, the main manufacturers of raw rubber rose to 14700 yuan/ton, which boosted the market. Specifically, the main manufacturers have AB class price advantages and are expected to occupy 70% of the market share. Currently, only Yunnan manufacturers are maintaining long-term competition, while most other individual factories have no intention of bidding for raw rubber and have basically followed the trend without falling. In addition, the raw rubber equipment continues to operate at low loads, and some enterprises have increased their self use rates. This week, the raw rubber prices of various individual factories have generally followed suit, rising to 14700-14800 yuan/ton, with Foshan taking orders. In terms of demand, the mixing of rubber is mainly focused on digesting inventory, and some enterprises are under significant financial pressure at the end of the month. Therefore, stocking up is mainly aimed at achieving the targets of major manufacturers. Overall, the main manufacturers have sufficient pre-sale orders for raw rubber, and the current price advantage is firmly controlled, which is likely to maintain a stable and rising atmosphere.
The mixed rubber market: Raw rubber rose by 400 yuan in August, and the mixed rubber market sighed at the prospect of an increase. If they wanted to go up, they dared not. This week, the mainstream quotation continued to be 13200 to 13500 yuan/ton. Specifically, on the one hand, the main manufacturers continue to suppress the low prices of rubber compounds and have not followed the rise in raw rubber prices, leading to increased cost pressure on other rubber compound factories; On the other hand, the silicon products market remained stable in August, with significant bargaining power over mixed rubber. Despite the rising trend, the inquiry volume has increased, and price comparisons are more common. Due to differences in inventory, funds, and product layout, the rubber mixing plant has differentiated in accepting orders. According to our recent visits to multiple rubber mixing factories, some manufacturers have caused significant controversy by shipping ordinary molded rubber at ultra-low prices; But focusing on product polishing and providing technical services, it is also good to accept orders at a slightly higher price. Currently, high transparency extruded glue and gas-phase glue still have certain differentiation advantages. In the future, conventional rubber compounds will continue to be impacted by large factories, and there are some technical barriers for customized and functional silicone, but profits are generally shrinking. For the expectations of the "Golden September and Silver October", most manufacturers generally hold a cautious attitude, and everyone can only actively adjust their business strategies, constantly explore their own advantages to enhance market competitiveness.

On the demand side: Currently, there is no significant improvement in terminal consumption, and the supply and demand pattern of high-temperature adhesive is difficult to reverse. The desire for an increase is imminent, but in the face of transactions, the main focus is still on maintaining stable shipments. The overall demand has not significantly improved, and it is difficult for silicon product companies to join the trend of chasing prices. Currently, they are still in a stable stage of receiving orders, waiting for the demand side of the "Golden September and Silver October" to make efforts. Considering the continuous increase in high-temperature adhesive production capacity by major monomer factories and the sufficient supply of goods on the supply side, the stocking sentiment of product factories is limited, and the market presents a dilemma of "hot shaving and picking". Overall, although the current market rally atmosphere is full, it seems that there is a lack of momentum for "Golden Nine", as the actual demand of the terminal has not fully kept up, and the mentality of upstream and downstream is inevitably anxious. Overall, the market trend is still under pressure, and with limited profitability, the road to reversal is still full of obstacles.