On July 1st, the spot trading prices of the three major raw rubber fluctuated by 50-100 yuan, with a trading volume of 14300-14500 yuan/ton. The transaction price of Luxi DMC is 13400 yuan/ton, which is still acceptable. Other individual factories operate in the range of 13600-13900 yuan/ton. The industry believes that new production capacity will be concentrated and released in the second half of the year. As the temperature rises, the off-season characteristics of the organic silicon industry gradually become apparent. The industry PMI in June was 47.8%, a decrease of 2 percentage points compared to the previous month, ending the consecutive two month on month upward trend, reflecting a slowdown in the pressure on the organic silicon industry. The current market has basically completed the adjustment caused by the expected correction, and the trend of survival of the fittest in the market continues. Looking ahead to the third quarter, the signals from top factories, prices, and external demand are expected to gradually become clear. Business owners are gradually shifting from the order lending (monthly or semi annual) model to the cash order framework, and orders are gathering with industry leaders. Currently, industry profits continue to experience a low dividend wave, and after the price turning point appears, they are gradually turning to differentiated growth.
Recently, it was reported that the distributor of Yisheng rubber blend was closed! The author has called the person in charge multiple times, but their phone has been unanswered. The latest survey on inventory warning index of domestic raw rubber and mixed rubber dealers released by industrial institutions shows that in June 2024, the inventory warning index of raw rubber and mixed rubber dealers was 63%, an increase of 10 percentage points year-on-year and 6 percentage points month on month. The inventory warning index is above the boom bust line, and the circulation of raw rubber and blended rubber is in a downturn range. Looking at the latest data, it can be seen that in the first half of this year, the completion rate of about 30% of raw rubber mixed rubber dealers was less than 50%... This shows that with the major reshuffle of the domestic raw rubber mixed rubber industry, although the annual production and sales of raw rubber mixed rubber have exceeded 1.5 million tons, distributors facing terminal demand enterprises are still moving forward in difficulties. In the past three years, the prices of raw rubber blends have continued to decline, with fierce competition, further compressing the profit margins of raw rubber blend dealers. The serious price inversion has made it even more difficult for raw rubber blend dealers to make progress.