On June 19th, the mainstream operation of DMC remained between 13400 and 13900 yuan. Affected by the price increase news from Shinetsu, the mainstream quotation for silicone oil has increased by 100-150 yuan/ton, and transactions continue to be in high demand. In recent days, local expectations in the organic silicon spot market have rebounded, and the pace of demand side inventory replenishment has accelerated; On the other hand, in the contract market, the general manager of a large individual factory bluntly stated that although the number of inquiries has increased, there has been no significant improvement in online signed contract orders. Downstream customers are more wait-and-see, and major individual enterprises are still secretly "rolling prices". The current excess pressure on the supply side of organic silicon is still significant, and it is necessary for individual factories to work together to reduce production in order to drive recovery and boost market confidence.
According to dealers, the prices of most technical products such as functional silicone oil from Xinyue have increased by about 10% this week, indicating that organic silicon has entered the 2.0 stage of the price increase cycle (differentiation). The main reason for the price increase of brands is that the supply side is still tight, and the available spot resources in the market are limited. Domestic dealer inventories have dropped to relatively low levels, and some holders are hesitant to sell. Downstream price increases have once again boosted market sentiment.
On Wednesday, the general manager of a leading domestic silicone oil company stated that 2024 will be a year for silicone oil to actively reduce inventory, and one of the actions is to reduce supply. We plan to reduce output by 10%. If the main silicon oil factories experience large-scale and widespread production cuts or shutdowns, the situation of oversupply will naturally be reversed, which will lead to a bottoming out rebound in silicon oil prices. However, if we want to achieve balance in 2024, the reduction in demand and supply will be significant and difficult, requiring sufficiently low price incentives.
He pointed out that the reduction in production by major enterprises will indeed tighten the supply of some silicone oil resources in the short term, but the impact of only the reduction in production by major enterprises may be limited. When prices recover to a certain range, which closed production capacity and discontinued cracking capacity will be released again, causing supply pressure. This can refer to the previous case where individual enterprises reduced production for maintenance, but silicon oil prices did not rebound. For the future trend of the silicone oil market, he believes that after considering the production costs of domestic and foreign silicone oil companies, the price of domestic silicone oil is expected to fluctuate widely between 14000 yuan/ton and 17000 yuan/ton in 2024, while the price of imported silicone oil is expected to fluctuate between 19000 yuan/ton and 23000 yuan/ton. The price of silicone oil will also fluctuate with changes in demand, and the situation of 60000+-80000+in 2021 is unlikely to occur.
He also believes that the inverted relationship between silicon oil prices and DMC prices has been basically lifted, and it is highly likely that the prices of silicon oil mines and DMC will be basically synchronized in 2024, and it is unlikely that there will be significant differentiation. In terms of price trends, until the problem of oversupply is solved, the domestic silicon oil price in 2024 is likely to fluctuate, showing a W-shaped trend. There will be a low point within the year in the current or second quarter, and prices will also slightly recover from the lowest level within the year in the fourth quarter, overall at a low level, in order to complete the clearance of silicon oil production capacity.
Under continuous pressure from the Indian government, the Indian subsidiary of Chinese smartphone manufacturer vivo is in talks with Tata Group to acquire a majority stake in order to meet the Indian government's operational localization requirements. Due to the dominance of the Indian mobile phone market by Chinese mobile phone brands, the Indian government hopes that new measures can increase the influence of Indian companies in the Indian mobile phone market. Therefore, the Indian government requires Tata Group to hold at least 51% of Vivo India's shares, and also requires the acquired joint venture to be led by local enterprises and the distribution network to be localized.
JATO Dynamics, a British research firm, released a 2023 global new car sales ranking by car name. Tesla's Model Y ranked first with 1.223 million vehicles, followed by Toyota's RAV4 with sales of 1.075 million vehicles, and Honda's CR-V ranked third with sales of 864000 vehicles. In the top ten of sales, there are also Toyota Corolla sedans with 803000 units, Corolla CROSS with 715000 units, Toyota Camry with 650000 units, Ford F-150 with 623000 units, Toyota Highlander with 605000 units, Nissan SENTRA with 534000 units, and Tesla Model 3 with 508000 units. The highest ranked car in China is BYD Qin, with sales of 473000 units.
Ferrari CEO Benedetto Vigna stated that in the coming years, Ferrari will not give up on internal combustion engines as the company remains committed to providing a full range of powertrain options for buyers. Although Ferrari is accelerating the launch of its first fully electric model, which is scheduled to debut by the end of next year, Vigna will still adhere to his strategy of maintaining an open attitude towards a range of solutions while constantly innovating new technologies. For Ferrari, this is a delicate balance as young buyers tend to choose electric cars, but many old customers are unwilling to give up Ferrari's iconic roar.