The upward trend is advancing! At present, leading companies continue to close their stocks to stimulate prices, coupled with a decline in costs. The price of 421 # metal silicon is 15200-15600 yuan/ton, with a partial decline of 50, which is beneficial for individual factories to repair their profit margins. Yesterday, some individual factories in Shandong rose another 100 yuan, with DMC quotes of 15300 yuan/ton. Other individual factories are also continuing to raise prices under the support of pre-sale orders, pushing towards the 16000 mark, and the DMC market is showing a stable and progressive pattern.


At present, the market sentiment is quite fragmented, with one side believing that profit return is the essence of business, the current price increase is inevitable, and there is still some room for further increase in the future; On the other hand, they believe that overcapacity has not changed, and they are just hyping up while leading companies are closed, and it won't take long to rise. But I never believed in price increases, and it has been almost two months since then. It seems that the style of individual factories will undergo a sudden change in 2024, and the determination to repair profits is relatively strong. However, as prices rise, there has not been a significant increase in post holiday terminal demand orders. Middle and downstream enterprises dare not gamble and continue to be bullish. This week, they are being cautious in replenishing positions, and the game atmosphere is strong! Don't be fooled by the rising market, everyone's focus is still on when the leading factories will open? At present, the industry unanimously believes that leading factories will open with an "upward" trend, so we are bullish on how much they will rise and how little they will rise.


Raw rubber market:


After the holiday, the rising trend of raw rubber can be said to be proud, not only completely getting rid of inversion, but also rebounding the most fiercely. Led by Yunnan raw rubber factory, it has surged all the way to 17400-17800 yuan/ton, and currently, polymer raw rubber has also risen to 18300-18500 yuan/ton. From an on-site perspective, the rapid rise of raw rubber after the holiday is a result of several factors. Firstly, under the stimulation of leading market closures, peers and mixed rubber have predicted that there may be a round of price increase. Taking advantage of the rising trend and stocking up in advance is the key for some mixed rubber enterprises to layout the market; Secondly, due to the previous low prices of raw rubber being suppressed by leading factories, most individual factories have been reducing their raw rubber equipment for a long time. After the holiday, the leading companies have closed down, causing mixed rubber to be caught off guard. Especially for some enterprises producing equal materials, they need to actively purchase spot raw rubber. Under the fear of rising prices, the stock volume has increased, and there is a temporary supply gap in the market spot, which has driven up the trend.


Overall, the rise of raw rubber can be said to have exceeded expectations. However, the leading trading has not yet been in place, and it remains to be seen whether the full implementation of raw rubber speculation can be achieved. The future depends on how the leading companies will quote, and it is expected that raw rubber will continue to operate well in the short term.



Mixed rubber market:

Driven by the rise in raw rubber, the mainstream quotation for mixed rubber this week is 16000-16500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of nearly 1000 yuan compared to before the holiday. From an on-site perspective, due to the active stocking of silicon product enterprises before the holiday, there are currently abundant pre-sale orders for mixed rubber, and there is a high enthusiasm for resuming work and production after the holiday. The production and delivery of orders are in full swing. However, due to the slow arrival of the main raw rubber, the delivery time of most orders is delayed. In the case of purchasing high priced spot raw rubber, the price of mixed rubber can only be forced to follow up, and the pace of order acceptance is disrupted. Overall, in the short term, mixed rubber enterprises are cautious in accepting orders while costs continue to rise,
The price is adjusted according to the trend of raw rubber.


In terms of silicon product factories: After the holiday, the resumption of work pace in silicon product factories is relatively slow compared to upstream. However, as we enter this week, the employees are basically in place and work has entered a normal state. According to our information from multiple silicone and additive factories, driven by the rising buying sentiment, silicon products have placed more active inquiries and orders this week, and the overall market is showing a "thriving" situation.


Compared to the increase in raw rubber, the presence of 107 rubber is relatively low. However, yesterday, the main force of Shandong 107 rubber increased by another 200 yuan, with an external report of 16100 yuan/ton. 107 rubber is also considered to have officially entered the 16000+stage. Silicone adhesive has had to keep up with the rising costs for several consecutive months due to poor business and severe competition in the past two years. Most companies are unwilling to take the lead and have issued fewer price increase letters, with most of them experiencing hidden price increases. From the price adjustment notice issued by a rubber company yesterday, it can be seen that the prices of foam adhesive and white adhesive have been clearly increased by 5-7%, while the price adjustment of silicone adhesive and beauty sealant is vague.