Accompanied by the sound of firecrackers in the new year, Xiaobian, who successfully turned from positive to negative, came to work happily again. However, the market of organic silicon is cold and quiet, and there is no "good start". Anyway, I have received a lot of holiday notices, logistics outage notices, etc., obviously feeling that we have insufficient stamina.


Since the middle and lower reaches prepared a batch of goods before the New Year's Day, and now come back after the festival, most of the monomer plants are mainly wait-and-see when the quotation trend is not clear, and the monomer plants say that they can not sustain losses. DMC sticks to 16300~17000 yuan/ton, half a month before the Spring Festival. If the upstream does not give way, it may face a price without market. Therefore, it is not ruled out that some monomer plants still have the heart to "make trouble", hoping to make another wave of orders before the Spring Festival.


From the supply side: since the listing of the futures, industrial silicon has fallen in succession. On the first day of 2023, the opening of industrial silicon futures fell by more than 1%, and the spot market is also sluggish. 421 # silicon metal quoted 19000~19800 yuan/ton, and some of the holders sold at a low price for the purpose of withdrawing funds. On the other hand, the price of methyl chloride in Shandong has dropped by 200, and the current quotation is 2700 yuan/ton. On the whole, the cost has continued to weaken in the near future, and the loss of monomer plants has eased to some extent. Therefore, in order to stimulate the middle and lower reaches to stock up, some monomer plants may still yield profits.


In terms of operating rate: North China, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Shandong and other regions have equipment maintenance, and single units in Yunnan, Hubei, Xinjiang and other regions have been started to reduce the load. It is understood that with the increase of holidays in the downstream, in order to relieve the supply pressure, the operating rate of several units is still planned to halve in January, and the output is expected to continue to decline during the Spring Festival.


Demand side: At present, the middle and downstream enterprises say that the capacity of the single factory is too large, and there is little hope for a rebound in the near future, so the stock before the festival can be fed back is quite limited. In addition, the demand weakness from the bottom up can not be changed overnight. Even if the single factory reduces its load, the pattern of overcapacity cannot be reversed. At present, the middle and downstream enterprises say that the price is stable, and the desire to continue to stock is not high, after all, the safety stock was completed last week, More preparation requires more attraction.


On the whole, the market will enter the closing process in the first week of 2023, with bulk orders mainly delivered. Although individual plants still have the intention to go to the warehouse, it will also depend on the downstream stock situation. It does not rule out the possibility that some individual plants may have a slight drop in order to stimulate downstream stock. From the current downstream operating rate, it is difficult to have large-scale stock up operations. Therefore, it is expected that the organic silicon market will be mainly stable before the festival under such an atmosphere of high success and low success.