At present, the organic silicon market is stabilizing and operating, with both wait-and-see and positive expectations coexisting. On May 12th, the Joint Statement of the China US Economic and Trade Talks in Geneva was released, and both sides made substantial progress in tariff adjustments. The high-temperature adhesive has received a positive response and has been actively restocking in the past two days. Although the atmosphere for DMC orders is still relatively flat, confidence in stabilizing prices continues to be replenished in this major positive context. Currently, DMC prices are stable at 11300-12500 yuan/ton, and individual factories have also shown firm performance in actual transactions. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the current trend of high-temperature adhesive recovery is obvious, and there has been a good improvement in orders. However, the atmosphere of room temperature adhesive is relatively sluggish, and the macro impact is limited, making most companies' bullish expectations relatively conservative. After stocking up appropriately, they will continue to wait for feedback from terminal orders. According to an executive order issued by the White House, starting from May 14th, tariffs on small parcels from China (including small parcels from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region) will be reduced or revoked. The international mail ad valorem tax rate will be lowered from 120% to 54%, and the measure originally scheduled to increase the volume tax from $100 per parcel to $200 per parcel from June 1st, 2025 will be revoked. At present, Sino US trade is rapidly recovering, and companies that previously postponed or cancelled orders due to tariff issues are urgently shipping. Industry experts have stated that "based on the received order data, the US shipping space is close to being overloaded until the end of May. Now, shippers from all over the country are rushing to ship to the US market, and the space will become increasingly tight." It is worth mentioning that although tariffs have significantly decreased from extreme levels, they are still too high for low profit outsourcing, cross-border e-commerce and other enterprises. According to our understanding from the silicon products factory, in the past two days, the main focus has been on the backlog of goods before shipment, and new product orders are still under observation. This is because the entire process from sampling, production, shipment, to port may not take enough 90 days. To avoid risks, some companies prefer to be more conservative and not engage in 'big opening and big closing' production.
107 glue and silicone oil market: The cost is firm, and the quotations of 107 glue and silicone oil enterprises remain stable. This week, the mainstream quotation for 107 glue is 12500-12700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation for silicone oil is 14000-14800 yuan/ton. From the perspective of the market, recent macroeconomic positive news has been frequent, which has to some extent promoted the recovery process of terminal demand. However, the construction adhesive market has been sluggish for a long time, and the oversupply environment has made it difficult for silicone adhesive companies to hoard goods. As a result, some small and medium-sized 107 adhesive and silicone oil factories are still facing a situation of having a price but no market in terms of shipments. Moreover, with the current decline in raw material prices and the strengthening of costs, the operating pressure on small and medium-sized manufacturers has increased. Therefore, in order to avoid losses, most enterprises mainly rely on self use, and production cuts have also been carried out simultaneously. For large manufacturers, especially leading enterprises, due to a stable core customer system, they can still maintain stable shipments even in the face of weak demand. Moreover, as the signal of raw material price increases gradually strengthens, some silicone rubber companies have also followed suit and gradually carried out routine stocking, which provides certain support for the prices of 107 rubber and silicone oil. Overall, currently 107 rubber and silicone oil companies are still demand-oriented, and with limited orders, the follow-up range may be limited. It is expected that the market will maintain stable operation in the short term. In terms of foreign brand silicone oil, the restart of the Zhangjiagang plant has been delayed, and the supply level is average. Agents can only maintain a high price sales strategy. Currently, foreign brand conventional silicone oil is priced at 17500-18000 yuan/ton, and high-level transactions are deadlocked. Some agents still offer discounts in actual transactions.