The current rally is as easy to be slapped as the star's statement! Less than a week after the rebound, the collective price began to fall again. Yesterday, Shandong monomer factory opened down 200 yuan, DMC quoted 19000 yuan/ton, and then the leading monomer factory finally ended. DMC and 107 glue dropped 300 yuan, DMC quoted 19500 yuan/ton, 107 glue quoted 19000 yuan/ton, and continued to hang upside down! Raw rubber was reduced by 500 yuan and returned to its original form at 19800 yuan/ton. The two weathervanes fell. It is estimated that other monomer plants should also keep up with the pace of price reduction. This round of decline also confirms that the decline of last week has not yet reached its target, which is bound to invalidate the rebound. Then, at which point will this round of play hit the bottom?


Silicone oil and 107 glue: the leading monomer factory has a big hand, 107 glue is deeply in the upside down situation, the price of purified water drops to 19000 yuan/ton, and 500 yuan is upside down with DMC! In addition to the single factory, other 107 glue enterprises are basically unable to fight. In the short term, the decline of 107 glue has been large enough. It is a loss making shipment according to the normal cost accounting. Although the frequent benefits of real estate and infrastructure are still expected, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. If there is an order, goods can be prepared normally.


Silicon oil: Recently, the domestic and foreign silicon oil enterprises have played a fierce game. The last round of foreign-funded brand silicon oil enterprises gave up a lot of profits to attract large downstream customers. Although the quotation of 24000-25000 yuan/ton was returned later, the domestic silicon oil enterprises have been greatly impacted in taking orders. Yesterday, the leading monomer factory silicon oil dropped 700 yuan, and the quotation fell to 22300 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream quotation of silicone oil is 22300~23500 yuan/ton.


Cracking material silicon oil and 107 glue: new material returns to the decline, but the raw edge of waste silica gel remains unchanged. At present, the quotation is still 7800~8000 yuan/ton. Cracking material enterprises remain on the edge of the market as always. The quotation of cracking material silicon oil excluding tax is 205000~21500 yuan/ton (mainly low viscosity). At present, the cracking material enterprises are "the leftovers are the king", and the waste silica gel finally needs to be cracked. Recently, there has been a desire to withdraw from some manufacturers, and the high price inventory of some waste silica gel recyclers may be difficult to realize this year. In the long run, low price raw materials have incremental expectations for the silicon product market, while the speculation of waste silica gel recyclers is accelerating the elimination of cracking material plants. Once the supply and demand pattern changes, high price inventory will face losses. Therefore, it is recommended that waste silica gel recyclers do not "fish with all their might".


On the whole, the metal silicon has temporarily maintained stable operation, and the cost of individual plants has not been improved. The pre-sale orders of some manufacturers have been placed at about No. 20, and the orders are limited. The National Day holiday is just around the corner, and the order volume in the second half of September is always to be offset. In order to stimulate downstream demand, loss shipments should also be made. There is a rumor in the market that some monomer plants have lost tens of millions of dollars in silicone business this year. Although this loss is not a big deal for monomer plants, it also reflects the severity of the market. Now, it depends on when the downstream enterprises will enter the site and the frequent macro favorable policies. Many downstream enterprises still have plans to prepare goods at the lowest price.



To sum up, this round of decline has pushed the supply and demand game to a new stage. According to our understanding from many middle and downstream manufacturers, they plan to drop another 500-1000 yuan/ton and then start to enter the market to copy the bottom. For some single plants that have lost money, can the sliding space meet the downstream expectation? The Mid Autumn Festival has just passed, and we are waiting to see who will be in charge of the ups and downs before the National Day.