The word "stability" is the first word. After the festival, the silicone market is quiet and peaceful. There is no sign of fluctuation in the two major monomer plants that offer online in Shandong and Zhejiang. Because some monomer plants give up profits before the festival, the pre-sale orders are placed at about No. 20, so they are even more immovable. Today, Shandong monomer factory once again broke the deadlock, falling by 200, DMC reported 19000 yuan / ton, other monomer factories remained temporarily stable at 19500-19800 yuan / ton, and 421 # metal silicon also stopped rising and stabilized. However, behind the stability are hidden games. Under the pressure of upstream profits, adhering to the principle of rising as much as possible, the rebound last week was only 300-500, which is really a bit unfinished. But due to the drag of demand, the downstream gained the upper hand after a short period of small replenishment. After the festival, inquiries were not good, and many people in the industry thought that the rise was short-lived.


Raw rubber Market: at present, the mainstream DMC price has not been adjusted, and the raw rubber quotation is also stable at 20300 ~ 20500 yuan / ton. From the receipt of orders, the rubber mixing enterprises had a moderate amount of stock before the festival, and the price did not fluctuate after the festival, so the market was calm again. This week, the raw rubber enterprises mainly delivered orders before the festival, and new orders were under pressure. In the short term, the rise in sentiment can only drive the stock for a while, and cannot form a benign transmission. Under the background of demand repression, it is difficult to continue to drive the rise of rubber mix. It is expected that the raw rubber market will fall rather than rise in the near future.


Rubber mix market: the price of raw rubber will not rise steadily, and the rubber mix enterprises will also offer steadily for half a month. At present, the mainstream price is 18000~19000 yuan/ton. Recently, due to the slightly positive signs of the demand of the silicon product enterprises, a small amount of goods were prepared last week under the stimulus of the inflation. The rubber mix of the leading factory also remained strong. Thanks to the promotion of multiple factors, the low price competition atmosphere of the rubber mix enterprises was alleviated to some extent. However, after the festival, the silicon products factory returned to calm after stocking up. Yesterday, the manufacturers received orders with little success. The time left for the rubber mixing factory to be stable may not be long, and it is still inevitable to face low price competition in the future. However, as long as the leading factories do not hang upside down, the rubber mixing enterprises will make some meager profits depending on the market.


On the whole, there was a lot of skepticism before the festival. In addition to stimulating a small wave of gang to stock up, other goods were obviously not ready to catch up, which led to a decline after the festival. At present, on the positive side, the news of guarantee and delivery of buildings in various places has appeared frequently recently. On September 12, Evergrande held the weekly meeting of resumption of work, production and guarantee and delivery of buildings. It was revealed at the meeting that there are 706 guaranteed building projects of the company, 668 of which have been resumed and 38 of which have not been resumed; Evergrande also requires companies in relevant regions to fully resume work before September 30 to reach the normal construction level. With the upcoming major meeting, the macro ZC warm wind is blowing frequently, and the special debt for infrastructure construction is constantly replenished. All kinds of expectations are favorable, which has boosted market confidence to a certain extent.



Bad news: since it is expected to be good, it will certainly take time. It is easy to weaken the good news only by relying on infrastructure construction and without the support of export orders. In the face of the current real demand, there is not much improvement, and the single factory production reduction is not enough, so it is still too early to reverse the supply and demand pattern.



To sum up, the upstream and downstream are locked in a stalemate in the face of strong expectations and weak reality. If the upstream price rises, there may be no takers in the short term. On the contrary, if there is a drop, it will be good for the forecast, and some optimistic downstream companies will rebound after actively seeking the bottom. Considering that the current DMC is still less than 20000, the risk of an appropriate amount of goods preparation with orders is not large. It is estimated that the rise and fall will be only one or two thousand, probably the first to fall and then rise!