This week, the opening of DMC was "Waterloo" again, and the bidding situation became white hot. As the recovery of downstream demand has been lagging behind, the high inventory of some monomer factories can not be reversed quickly, and the quotation can only be increased continuously and reduced continuously to stimulate downstream hoarding. At noon yesterday, the DMC price of individual monomer factories in Shandong fell another 200 to 24000 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the leading monomer factory relay again, and a variety of products fell another 1000! DMC also quoted 24000 yuan / ton; 107 glue: 24300-24600 yuan / ton (including packaging); Raw rubber is 25000 yuan / ton, while other monomer factories are still quiet, but the delivery of pre-sale orders has entered the final period. Under the flood of low prices, it is also necessary to consider the order volume in June. Today, some manufacturers may pursue and follow up the quotation of leading monomer factories. However, as the price further approaches the cost line, some downstream enterprises may enter and prepare goods.


From the perspective of supply side: the quotation of chemical grade metallic silicon 421# Huangpu port is 20300 ~ 21500 yuan / ton, the price continues to decline slightly, the wet season is approaching, the electricity tariff in Southwest China is expected to be reduced, and there is still room for metallic silicon to fall. At present, the units of major monomer plants are in normal operation, there is still expansion of production in the northwest, the new capacity will be put on the market step by step, and the DMC supply continues to increase, but the end consumption is difficult to effectively boost in the short term. Therefore, there is no breakthrough progress on the demand side. Even if the downstream replenishment takes advantage of the low position, it is only inventory transfer, and the overall supply still exceeds demand. Subsequently, the cost line will be impacted, and the monomer factory may reduce production and ensure price.


From the demand side, under the collapse of DMC of monomer plant, the middle and downstream products also fell to varying degrees. At present, with the deepening of the decline, the bearish range in the industry is also heating up and fermenting. However, in the face of the price falling to the expectations of some enterprises, the willingness to copy the bottom is becoming increasingly obvious, and the plan is adopted with the decline. As it is near the end of the month and the large downstream enterprises are in the conventional goods preparation stage, it does not rule out that some monomer factories give up profits in advance in order to grab orders. Therefore, with the further profit transfer of leading monomer factories, some middle and downstream enterprises are considering entering the site, preparing a batch of goods first and then depending on the situation. If the DMC price stabilizes after falling this week, a wave of enterprises are expected to enter and stock up.


On the whole, this wave of continuous decline in May: first, after the high price of individual monomer factories is difficult to clinch a deal, the inventory continues to rise, so they have to take the initiative to give up profits; Second, the Yi situation accelerates the decline of market demand; Third, new single units have been put into operation successively; Fourth, weak support at the raw material end.


Based on this situation, the buyer and the seller are in the game at present. They have a wait-and-see mentality: the profits of some middle and lower reaches enterprises have been frustrated one after another, full of pessimism, there is no desire to copy the bottom, and the driving force to maintain the current output and further expand production capacity has slowed down; Some middle and lower reaches enterprises are still optimistic about the future market. At present, they are accumulating strength and preparing for bottom reading.