In many regions, silicone enterprises have "retired" from the Jianghu, and the quotation of mainstream monomer factories has been stable. Due to the large difference between the quotation of individual monomer factories and the mainstream quotation, it can rise slightly this week, but it is not necessarily optimistic about the transaction, and it is mainly just needed to purchase. Today, DMC of individual monomer factories in Shandong made a stable quotation of 35000 yuan / ton. 421# metal silicon (for organic silicon, East China) rose a little by 250, with a quotation of 24800-25000 yuan / ton. In the short term, in the game between the upstream and downstream, the high position in the upstream remains stable until the downstream just needs to cover the position, and the downstream is deadlocked until the upstream expands. I don't know who will be the one to break the deadlock. It will be known at the end of next week or month.


From the supply side, at present, the quotation of 107 glue from the monomer factory is stable, still around 38000 ~ 39300 yuan / ton, while the downstream trading is becoming more and more dull in the wait-and-see. Therefore, this week, traders and some 107 glue manufacturers are unwilling to continue to be passive, so they decided to take the initiative to make profit, cash out and ship in advance, and the transaction profit margin is different. The price of silicone oil fell steadily this week, reported at 42000 ~ 45000 yuan / ton, decreased by 1000 yuan / ton. The transaction of new orders is general. Due to the large export orders of mainstream silicone oil plants in the early stage, the orders are basically arranged until the end of March. In the short term, under the temporary stability of DMC, the price support mentality of silicone oil enterprises is still sufficient.


Under the influence of the drop in DMC price last week, in order to avoid risks and continue to make profits, the cracking material plant continues to make deals this week. According to our understanding, the current DMC quotation of cracking material is 29500 ~ 31000 yuan / ton (excluding tax), with a decrease of 2000 yuan / ton; Silicone oil of cracking material was reported as 35000 ~ 36000 yuan / ton (excluding tax), and 107 glue of cracking material was reported as 32000 ~ 32500 yuan / ton (excluding tax), both of which decreased by 1000. Due to the weak demand in the downstream market, the profit transfer transaction is also ordinary. In terms of cost: Based on the bearish mentality towards the future market, the cracking material manufacturers are still relatively resistant to the preparation of waste silica gel, while the recent production of the silicon products factory is limited, the supply of goods is not much, the low price is unwilling to give out, and the quotation of waste silica gel is deadlocked between 12000-13000 yuan / ton. At present, the trading and investment of silicon products factory, waste silica gel recycler and cracking material factory are relatively sluggish in terms of both supply and demand and limited logistics.


At present, affected by the epidemic, the upstream and downstream silicone enterprises in Zhejiang, Shandong, Shenzhen and Dongguan are affected, and the construction of terminal construction sites is also limited. Some construction projects are temporarily suspended, and there is a shrinkage risk for the rigid demand for silicone glue. A good peak season may become a off-season under the epidemic. However, in some areas, the delivery of monomer factories is limited, the arrival is delayed, and the raw materials in the downstream inventory have been consumed. After the epidemic eases, there may be a wave of just need to replenish the warehouse. However, the downstream does not pay for the current high price, but hopes to buy the bottom and hoard goods after a wave of deep decline.


On the whole, enterprises in many regions have problems such as shutdown or shipment restriction, and the silicone oil and 107 glue market are difficult to survive. Fortunately, the current mainstream price is still stable, and the local low-price DMC is rising steadily, which alleviates the concerns of a small number of manufacturers about the deep decline. However, most people in the industry still believe that the current epidemic only delays the decline time, and the decline of the mainstream is inevitable.






Xiaobian believes that the downstream is facing heavy pressure at the beginning of the year, the profit is stretched, and the confidence in chasing the rise of high prices is obviously hit. In the later stage, after the market returns to normal, it will fall slightly or it will be difficult to promote the active preparation of goods in the downstream. It is expected that after a wave of deep decline, it will stimulate the downstream to collect the bottom and replenish positions, and then hit the bottom and rebound. However, we also need to pay close attention to the investment of new production capacity. Under the pattern of oversupply this year, the market cycle of each wave will be shortened, and the operation must be controlled within its own controllable risks!