"Peace" before the storm? DMC rose 200 locally, and the high level of raw rubber remained stable. How long can 39800 last?
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Do you workers still adapt to working at home? Xiaobian began to work at home yesterday. I sincerely hope that the epidemic will pass quickly and everyone can work safely to make money. Back to our silicone market, it may be the current situation of shutdown everywhere, and the manufacturer's quotation is meaningless. Yesterday, the mainstream monomer factory did not update the quotation, and the DMC was still stable at 39000 yuan / ton. Today, the DMC of individual monomer factories in Shandong rose another 200 yuan, with a quotation of 34800 yuan / ton. Yesterday, a monomer factory in Zhejiang had confirmed cases. In this regard, the company said on the investor interaction platform on March 15 that the production and operation of Zhejiang factory is normal.
Raw rubber Market: as the price of DMC remains unchanged, the price of raw rubber is also stable at 39000 ~ 39800 yuan / ton. It can be speculated that in the near future, no matter what changes in the price of individual DMC, as long as the DMC of the mainstream monomer factory is not clear about the direction, the raw rubber quotation will be mainly stable for the time being. And from the quotation of the raw rubber factory yesterday, it actually means lying flat and it doesn't matter whether you take the order or not. Because for the rubber mixing enterprises, they are already in a loss situation. The small decline of raw rubber is not enough to stimulate them to prepare goods for the time being, while the sharp decline. For the raw rubber factory, the high price orders in the early stage have not been delivered. At present, the logistics is also limited, and the sharp decline can not quickly transfer the inventory. Therefore, under the recent force majeure factors, all parties can only suspend the transaction and wait and see its change!
Rubber compounding Market: Although the price of raw rubber is high, driven by the decline of DMC last week, the rubber compounding market has fallen ahead of schedule. Due to the shutdown or semi start-up of many rubber compounding and silicon products enterprises in Dongguan, Shenzhen and Zhejiang, the logistics is also affected. Some rubber compounding factories with large inventory are anxious to ship, while some silicon products enterprises that can produce normally are afraid of out of stock, so in time Under the condition of limited space, the quotation of rubber mixing enterprises is very chaotic. According to our understanding, the wide quotation of rubber mixing in South China is 29000 ~ 31500 yuan / ton, the overall transaction is general, and the current price has been shipped at a loss. In the short term, if the prices of raw rubber and DMC remain stable this week, it is difficult for the compound to continue to fall.
Demand side of silicon products: at present, the market atmosphere of terminal silica gel products is relatively flat and greatly affected by the epidemic. Under the condition of increasing confusion in the upstream market, silica gel products enterprises will not sell easily. What can be produced normally is only raw materials that need to be purchased for a week or half a month. The overall trading is bleak, the panic psychology is rising, and everyone tries to test each other, Wait for everything to settle.
To sum up, due to the epidemic situation and other force majeure factors, the trend of silicone is becoming more and more confused. The market is like going back to the time when the market is closed during the Spring Festival, press the pause button. After it returns to normal, the upstream will accumulate and the downstream will reduce. There is not only the willingness to actively ship goods, but also the demand for replenishment. How will the supply-demand game be deduced? In the short term, the current calm may be just the "calm" before the storm