Recently, after nearly three months of continuous increase, silicone began to cool down. The spot DMC price fell continuously in the past two days, with a cumulative decrease of 1500 yuan. At present, the main manufacturers have made an opening quotation, but the price is high. The DMC quotation is 39000 yuan / ton.






This round of silicone prices continue to rise, which is lack of strong support. We are also constantly vigilant. At present, there are many new production capacity, and the downstream demand has not fully recovered. It is difficult to maintain high prices for a long time only by export and speculation. Based on the current supply, production costs and downstream demand, the price is expected to have room for correction. However, when prices continue to fall, downstream procurement should also grasp the market. When the price was pressed to 22000 yuan / ton last year, people continued to be bearish and did not purchase, resulting in the reduction of inventory backlog and production of some enterprises. Later, centralized procurement directly triggered a new round of price surge. This round of market is expected to take some time to reach a new balance.


Bank of America: the average price of Brent crude oil will reach $110 this year, or $130 in a pessimistic scenario: the Bank of America said in a research report that the Russian Ukrainian conflict is "turbocharging the situation of commodities whose supply exceeds the search for constraints". Bank of America expects that under the benchmark scenario, the average price of Brent crude oil will reach US $110 / barrel this year, and the average price of TTF natural gas in Europe will reach 105 euros / MWh. In an optimistic scenario, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be resolved soon, and the average price of Brent and TTF natural gas will be US $95 and 75 euros respectively. In the pessimistic scenario, the average price of Brent crude oil will soar to $130 a barrel and reach a peak of $175 in the second quarter; The average price of TTF natural gas will reach 200 euros / MWh.






Central bank: since 2017, the average annual growth rate of China's macro leverage ratio has been about 4.8 percentage points, and the growth rate is generally stable. Internationally, compared with major economies, the increase of leverage ratio in China has been relatively controllable since the epidemic, and relatively small debt increment has supported the rapid recovery of economic growth. Since 2021, China's effective epidemic prevention and control, steady economic recovery, effective macro policies and other factors have jointly promoted the macro leverage ratio to return to the basically stable track, creating space for increasing policy cross cycle regulation and further strengthening support for the real economy.