By late October 2026, China’s silica market continues to show structural divergence. Trading of ordinary precipitated silica remains sluggish with prices stable at a low level. Transactions are mainly small rigid-demand orders, and inventory digestion proceeds slowly. Industry monitoring data shows that the ex-factory quotation of precipitated silica for general rubber stays within the range of 6,300 to 6,460 yuan per ton. Price fluctuation has been minimal recently. The market lacks positive support and has limited upward momentum. Downstream traditional rubber product manufacturers face weak orders and widespread capital pressure. Their procurement is conservative, and they only purchase on demand without large stockpiling. Traders adopt a wait-and-see attitude and are unwilling to build up inventories actively. Market orders are dominated by framework agreements with long-term clients, and there is considerable negotiation room for scattered orders. Market conditions vary across domestic production regions. East China boasts concentrated production capacity and abundant supply with fierce spot competition. Restricted by raw material transportation costs and energy consumption indicators, spot transaction prices in Southwest and Central China are slightly higher than those in East China. General grades have long suffered from overcapacity. Homogeneous low-price competition keeps squeezing corporate profits. Many small and medium-sized factories flexibly adjust operating rates according to orders, arrange production on demand, strictly control finished product inventory, reduce capital occupation and mitigate operational risks.

　　In terms of supply, China has a huge total silica production capacity. New capacity expansion is fully focused on modified high-end grades, while approval for new projects of traditional precipitated silica continues to be tightened, effectively curbing the expansion of low-end capacity. A large number of small and medium-sized capacities are concentrated in low-end segments such as shoe materials and ordinary rubber fittings. Product performance suffers severe homogenization with limited upper limits on indicators, making it difficult to enter high-threshold supply chains including new energy tires and high-end electronic silicone. They can only compete for existing market share through low pricing. Leading enterprises keep optimizing capacity structure, shutting down outdated and inefficient production lines, and allocating production resources to high-dispersion silica specially for tires, hydrophilic and hydrophobic fumed silica and other products. Supply of high-end fumed silica is tight. Leading enterprises face order backlogs and extended delivery cycles, with quotations maintained at high levels. The price gap between high-end and low-end products keeps widening. Cost fluctuations of upstream sodium silicate, soda ash, sulfuric acid and electricity continuously affect silica production costs, and profit margins of ordinary precipitated silica manufacturers keep shrinking. Normalized supervision over environmental protection and work safety is steadily enforced. Rising standards for wastewater and waste gas treatment increase enterprise operation and maintenance costs. Small factories without supporting environmental facilities passively reduce output or even suspend production. Backward capacity in the industry is phased out at a faster pace and industrial concentration rises steadily. Meanwhile, continuous breakthroughs have been achieved in new industrial technologies. Rice husk ash-based bio-silica and silica adopting low-carbon recycling processes have gradually realized small-batch mass production. Such eco-friendly products comply with overseas carbon control policies, becoming a key R&D direction for leading enterprises and opening up new market segments.

　　The demand side still features prominent differentiation. Traditional downstream demand remains weak, while emerging sectors including new energy and high-end silicone serve as the core driving force for silica consumption growth. The shoe material and ordinary rubber fitting industries are currently in the demand off-season. Downstream product manufacturers operate at low capacity utilization and keep cutting silica procurement volume. The coating and daily chemical matting powder sectors only maintain basic rigid demand procurement. Downstream new product development slows down with limited incremental demand. New energy tires remain the largest growth market for silica. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China rises steadily and tire formulations keep upgrading. With the advantages of reducing rolling resistance and improving wet-skid resistance, the proportion of high-dispersion silica added in tire formulations keeps increasing, bringing steady growth in orders for relevant grades. Demand from the silicone industrial chain continues to expand. As the core reinforcing filler for silicone rubber, fumed silica is widely used in high-temperature vulcanized rubber, liquid silicone rubber and silicone gel. Consumption of fumed silica keeps climbing together with growing demand for electronic encapsulation, cable seals and photovoltaic sealants. New application scenarios of silica are continuously developed in lithium battery separators, industrial adhesives, composite materials and other fields. Material manufacturers develop various customized modified grades to adjust hydrophilic and hydrophobic properties to meet filling requirements of different polymer systems. This segmented market achieves much higher growth rate than traditional rubber sectors. The high price of carbon black accelerates material substitution by rubber enterprises, benefiting high-performance silica products in the medium and long term.

　　The foreign trade market is under continuous adjustment. China’s silica export structure is constantly optimized. Overseas inquiries for high-end special silica grow steadily, and customers in Europe, Southeast Asia and the Middle East keep increasing procurement of high-dispersion silica for tires. Overseas low-carbon policies keep tightening and the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is fully implemented. Silica produced by low-carbon processes enjoys carbon footprint advantages, and overseas buyers are willing to pay premium prices. Leading domestic enterprises accelerate the construction of low-carbon production lines to seize market share in overseas high-end material markets. Exports of ordinary precipitated silica face fierce competition and low-price impact from local manufacturers in Southeast and South Asia, leading to sluggish growth of export orders for conventional grades. Fluctuations in international shipping prices and exchange rates bring uncertainties to long-order quotations of foreign trade enterprises, making them more cautious when accepting long-term contracts. Imported silica products in China are mainly ultra-high-purity special grades, widely used in pharmaceutical carriers, high-end toothpaste, precision electronic polishing materials and other fields. Domestic enterprises speed up technical research to steadily push forward import substitution. Customs monitoring data shows that China’s total silica export volume fluctuates slightly recently. Export categories keep shifting toward high-dispersion modified silica, and the proportion of low-end product exports continues to decline.

　　Market outlook: In the short term, China’s silica market will maintain the pattern of structural differentiation. General precipitated silica lacks upward momentum for price hikes; prices are likely to run weakly and steadily with inventory digested slowly. Demand for high-end fumed silica and high-dispersion silica specially for tires remains strong, and prices fluctuate at high levels. In the medium and long term, driven by the continuous expansion of domestic new energy vehicles, high-end silicone and electronic new material industries, demand for high-performance silica will maintain steady growth. The logic of industrial competition has transformed from simple price competition to comprehensive competition covering quality control, surface modification technology, low-carbon production capacity and formula supporting services. Small and medium-sized manufacturers with weak R&D capabilities and single product lines face mounting survival pressure. Industrial resources will further concentrate on leading enterprises with complete industrial chains and sustainable R&D capabilities. Low-carbon development, functionalization and high purity will become the three major development themes of the silica industry in the future. The extensive development model relying on low-price bulk sales will gradually withdraw from the market. As downstream new materials keep expanding application boundaries, demand for customized modification of silica continues to rise. Material enterprises with customized development capabilities are expected to capture larger market share in the new industrial cycle.