By late October 2026, China’s silica industry continues to maintain a polarized market trend. The market for general precipitated silica fluctuates weakly and steadily with a slow transaction pace. Market trades are basically supported by downstream rigid demand orders, and the overall inventory digestion progresses slowly within a limited price fluctuation range. Commodity monitoring data shows that the mainstream ex-factory quotation of general rubber-grade precipitated silica stabilizes at 6,300 to 6,450 yuan per ton, remaining flat in the past half month without core positive factors to drive price hikes. Traditional downstream rubber product manufacturers suffer from insufficient orders and persistent capital turnover pressure. Their procurement strategies are conservative, and most adopt just-in-time purchasing instead of large-scale stockpiling to avoid operational risks caused by raw material price fluctuations. Traders are reluctant to stock up, and market circulation is dominated by long-term agreement orders from long-term clients, with sufficient negotiation room for scattered small orders. There are obvious regional differences in market conditions across major domestic production areas. East China, as the core domestic production base, has sufficient supply of general precipitated silica and fierce competition in the spot market. In Central and Southwest China, spot transaction prices are slightly higher than those in East China due to raw material transportation costs and regional energy consumption indicators. Cross-regional cargo transfer generates slim profits, so traders’ enthusiasm for interregional goods circulation keeps declining. Low-end general grades have long been in a state of overcapacity. Homogeneous cutthroat competition continuously squeezes profit margins of manufacturers. Many small and medium-sized factories dynamically adjust operating rates according to orders, arrange production on demand, strictly control finished product inventory, reduce working capital occupation and ease operational pressure.

　　In terms of supply, the overall installed capacity is large. New capacity expansion in the industry has fully shifted to high-value-added modified special grades. Approval for new projects of traditional ordinary precipitated silica keeps tightening, effectively curbing the expansion momentum of low-end capacity. A large number of small and medium-sized production capacities are concentrated in low-end tracks such as shoe materials and ordinary rubber miscellaneous parts. Product indicators suffer from serious homogenization and obvious performance defects, making it hard to enter high-threshold supply chains like new energy tires and high-end electronic silicone. They can only compete for the existing market share by low prices. Leading enterprises keep optimizing the capacity structure, take the initiative to shut down outdated and inefficient production lines, and divert production resources to high-dispersion silica specially for tires, hydrophilic and hydrophobic fumed silica and other high-end products. The supply of high-end fumed silica remains tight. Order backlogs of leading enterprises are extended and quotations stay high. The price gap between high-end and low-end products keeps widening. Cost fluctuations of upstream raw materials including sodium silicate, soda ash, industrial sulfuric acid and industrial electricity continuously impact the production costs of silica manufacturers, and profit margins of manufacturers producing ordinary precipitated silica keep shrinking. Normalized environmental protection and work safety inspections are continuously carried out nationwide. Standards for wastewater and waste gas treatment are upgraded, indirectly raising enterprise operation and maintenance costs. Small factories without supporting environmental facilities passively reduce or suspend production. Backward and inefficient capacity in the industry is phased out at an accelerated pace, and industrial concentration rises steadily. At the same time, the iteration of cutting-edge industrial technologies speeds up. Rice husk ash-based bio-silica and silica produced by low-carbon recycling processes have achieved small-batch industrialization. Such green low-carbon products are in line with overseas carbon control policies, becoming a key R&D direction for leading enterprises and opening up brand-new growth tracks for the industry.

　　The divergence between hot and cold demand remains prominent. Growth in traditional downstream sectors is sluggish, while emerging tracks such as new energy and high-end silicone serve as the core driving force for silica demand growth. The traditional shoe material and ordinary rubber miscellaneous parts industries are currently in the off-season of demand. Downstream product manufacturers operate at low rates and keep cutting silica procurement volume. The coating and daily chemical matting powder sectors only maintain basic rigid demand procurement. The pace of new product R&D slows down in downstream sectors, and the incremental demand is limited. Green new energy tires remain the largest growth market for silica. The market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China rises steadily and tire formulations are continuously upgraded. With the advantages of reducing rolling resistance and improving wet-skid resistance, high-dispersion silica is added in higher proportions in tire formulations, and orders for relevant grades maintain a steady growth trend. Demand from the silicone industrial chain keeps releasing. As the core reinforcing filler for silicone rubber systems, fumed silica is widely used in high-temperature vulcanized rubber, liquid silicone rubber, silicone gel and other products. With the expanding market demand for electronic packaging materials, cable seals and photovoltaic sealants, the consumption scale of fumed silica keeps rising. New application scenarios such as lithium battery separators, industrial adhesives and composite materials keep expanding the application boundary of silica. Material manufacturers develop various customized modified grades for surface modification to adjust the hydrophilic and hydrophobic properties of products and meet the filling requirements of different polymer systems. The growth rate of such segmented markets is significantly higher than that of traditional rubber application fields. The high price of carbon black further accelerates material substitution by rubber product manufacturers, which will benefit the development of high-performance silica products in the medium and long term.

　　The pattern of foreign trade market keeps reshaping, and the export structure of domestic silica shows an obvious optimization trend. Inquiries for high-end special silica from overseas rise steadily, and customers in Europe, Southeast Asia and the Middle East keep increasing procurement of high-dispersion silica for tires. Overseas green and low-carbon policies keep tightening, and the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is fully implemented. Silica produced by low-carbon processes enjoys carbon footprint advantages, and overseas buyers are willing to pay premiums for such products. Leading domestic enterprises accelerate the layout of low-carbon production processes to seize market share in overseas high-end material markets. The export market for ordinary precipitated silica faces fierce competition and low-price impact from local manufacturers in Southeast and South Asia, resulting in sluggish growth of export orders for conventional grades. Fluctuations in international ocean freight rates and exchange rates bring uncertainties to long-order quotations of foreign trade enterprises, making them more cautious in accepting long-term contracts. Imported silica products in China are mainly ultra-high-purity special silica, mostly applied in high-end fields such as pharmaceutical carriers, high-end oral care products and precision electronic polishing materials. Domestic material manufacturers are stepping up technical research to steadily push forward the process of import substitution. Customs data shows that the total export volume of domestic silica fluctuates slightly in the recent period, the focus of export categories continues to shift to high-dispersion modified silica, and the proportion of low-end product exports keeps declining.

　　Industry outlook: In the short term, China’s silica market will continue the pattern of structural differentiation. General precipitated silica lacks driving force for price increases, prices are likely to remain weak and stable, and market inventory will be digested slowly. Demand for high-end fumed silica and high-dispersion silica specially used for tires stays firm, and product prices fluctuate at a high level. In the medium and long term, with the continuous expansion of domestic new energy vehicles, high-end silicone and electronic new material industries, demand for high-performance silica will maintain steady growth. The logic of industrial competition has undergone fundamental changes. Market competition has shifted from simple price competition to comprehensive competition covering stable quality control, surface modification technology, low-carbon production capacity and formula supporting services. Small and medium-sized manufacturers lacking R&D strength and with single product lines face mounting survival pressure. Industrial resources will further concentrate on leading enterprises with complete industrial chains and sustainable R&D capabilities. Low-carbon development, functionalization and ultra-high purity will become the three core themes for the future development of the silica industry. The extensive development model relying on low-price bulk sales will gradually withdraw from the market. With downstream new material industries continuously expanding application boundaries, the demand for customized modification of silica products will keep rising. Material enterprises with customized development capabilities are expected to seize larger market share in the new industrial cycle.