Entering October 2026, China’s silica industry continues to show a polarized market pattern. The market for general precipitated silica fluctuates at a low level with tepid overall trading. Downstream buyers still adopt on-demand purchasing, and market inventory is digested slowly. Industry monitoring data shows that the mainstream ex-factory price of general precipitated silica stabilizes within the range of 6,300 to 6,450 yuan per ton. The price fluctuates in a narrow band with limited upward momentum. Traditional downstream rubber product manufacturers are plagued by insufficient orders and sustained capital pressure, leading to conservative purchasing plans and little bulk stockpiling. Traders are also reluctant to build up inventories actively. Market transactions are dominated by long-term agreements with regular clients, and there is considerable negotiation room for scattered small orders. Market conditions vary slightly across production regions. East China enjoys abundant supply and fierce spot competition, while products in Southwest and Central China command slightly higher spot transaction prices due to raw material transportation and energy consumption costs. Cross-regional cargo transfer yields slim profits, dampening traders’ willingness for interregional distribution. General grades have long suffered from overcapacity. Homogeneous cutthroat competition keeps squeezing corporate profits. Many small and medium-sized plants flexibly adjust operating rates and reduce production output according to order volume to cut finished product stockpiles and mitigate operational risks.

　　In terms of supply, China boasts a large total installed capacity of silica. New capacity expansion is fully geared toward high-end modified grades, and newly approved projects rarely focus on traditional precipitated silica. Numerous small and medium capacities are concentrated in low-end markets such as shoe materials and ordinary rubber miscellaneous parts. Serious homogenization of product performance indicators prevents them from entering high-end supply chains. Leading enterprises keep optimizing capacity structure, shutting down some outdated and inefficient production lines, and diverting production resources to high-dispersion silica for tires, hydrophilic and hydrophobic fumed silica and other products. Supply of high-end fumed silica remains tight; order backlogs of leading manufacturers extend and quotations stay high, widening the price gap between high-end and low-end products. Cost fluctuations of upstream raw materials including sodium silicate, soda ash, sulfuric acid and electricity continuously affect production costs of silica manufacturers. Profit margins of enterprises producing ordinary precipitated silica keep shrinking. Normalized supervision over environmental protection and work safety is enforced steadily with rising standards for wastewater and waste gas treatment, indirectly lifting operational and maintenance costs. Small factories without supporting environmental facilities keep cutting or halting production passively. Backward capacity is phased out at an accelerated pace and industrial concentration rises steadily. Meanwhile, cutting-edge industrial technologies keep evolving. Rice husk ash-based bio-silica and silica produced via low-carbon processes have achieved small-batch industrialization. Such eco-friendly products fit overseas low-carbon policies and have become a new R&D focus for leading enterprises.

　　The demand side maintains obvious divergence. Traditional downstream sectors see sluggish growth while emerging tracks serve as the main driving force of demand expansion. The traditional shoe material and ordinary rubber component industries are in a low-demand season. Downstream product manufacturers operate at low capacity utilization with shrinking purchases of silica. The coating and daily chemical matting powder sectors only maintain basic rigid demand procurement. New product development slows down with limited incremental demand. Green new-energy tires represent the biggest growth market for silica. As the penetration rate of new-energy vehicles rises continuously and tire formulations keep upgrading, high-dispersion silica can reduce rolling resistance and improve wet-skid resistance. Its proportion in tire formulations keeps increasing, bringing steady growth in orders of relevant grades. Demand from the silicone industry continues to expand. As a core reinforcing filler for silicone rubber, fumed silica is widely used in high-temperature vulcanized adhesives, liquid silicone rubber, silicone gels and other products. Rising demand for electronic encapsulation and cable sealing materials fuels steady consumption growth of fumed silica. New application scenarios such as lithium battery separators, adhesives and composite materials keep exploring silica utilization. Material manufacturers develop customized surface-modified grades to adjust hydrophilic and hydrophobic properties for filling requirements of different polymer systems. This segmented market achieves far higher growth than traditional rubber sectors. High carbon black prices further accelerate material substitution among rubber manufacturers, benefiting high-performance silica products in the medium and long run.

　　In the foreign trade market, China’s silica export structure continues to optimize. Inquiries for high-end special silica from overseas rise steadily. Clients in Europe, Southeast Asia and the Middle East increase procurement of high-dispersion silica for tires. Overseas green and low-carbon policies are tightening. With the implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, silica manufactured by low-carbon processes gains advantages in carbon footprint. Overseas buyers are willing to pay premium prices. Leading domestic enterprises speed up the deployment of low-carbon production processes to seize market share in overseas high-end markets. The export market for ordinary precipitated silica faces fierce competition and price pressure from manufacturers in Southeast and South Asia, resulting in stagnant export order growth. Volatile international ocean freight rates and exchange rate fluctuations bring uncertainties to long-order quotations for foreign trade enterprises, making them more cautious when accepting long-term contracts. Imported silica products in China are mainly ultra-high-purity special silica, mostly applied in pharmaceutical carriers, high-end toothpaste, precision electronic materials and other fields. Domestic manufacturers are stepping up technical research to gradually realize import substitution.

　　Industry outlook: In the short term, China’s silica market will continue the structural divergence pattern. General precipitated silica lacks upward momentum, and prices are likely to remain weak and stable with inventory digested slowly. Demand for high-end fumed silica and high-dispersion silica specially used for tires stays firm, maintaining high market prices. In the medium and long term, driven by the continuous expansion of domestic new-energy vehicles, high-end silicone and electronic new material industries, demand for high-performance silica will grow steadily. Industrial competition will shift from simple price competition to comprehensive competition covering quality control, surface modification technology and low-carbon production capacity. Small and medium manufacturers weak in R&D and with single product lines will face mounting survival pressure. Industrial resources will further concentrate on leading enterprises with complete industrial chains and sustainable R&D capabilities. Low-carbon development, functionalization and high purity will become the core development themes of the silica industry in the future.