By mid-October 2026, China’s silica market continues to show obvious structural divergence. Prices of general precipitated silica remain stable, transactions mainly rely on rigid demand from downstream customers, inventory digestion is slow, and price fluctuation range is limited. Commodity monitoring data shows that the mainstream ex-factory quotation of general precipitated silica stays at 6,300 to 6,420 yuan per ton. Traders are reluctant to stock up proactively. Large orders in the market mostly come from long-term regular clients. Negotiation space for bulk small orders is relatively large. Downstream buyers adopt just-in-time procurement and avoid large stockpiles to prevent operational risks brought by subsequent price swings. Finished goods inventories of general silica plants in many regions remain at a medium level. Some manufacturers cut operating rates voluntarily to ease inventory pressure and arrange production according to orders to avoid capital occupation caused by overstock. Market conditions vary slightly across regions. East China has sufficient supply of goods. Affected by logistics and transportation costs, spot transaction prices in Central and Southwest China are slightly higher than those in East China. Profit from cross-regional cargo transfer is thin, so traders lack enthusiasm for cross-regional circulation. Downstream rubber product manufacturers still face capital turnover pressure with extended payment cycles, which further restricts large-scale market transactions. The overall market circulation pace is slow, without strong positive factors to push prices upward。

　　In terms of supply, the total production capacity is sufficient. A large number of small and medium manufacturers focus on general grades for shoe materials and low-end rubber components, leading to fierce homogeneous competition. Leading enterprises gradually reduce capacity for low value-added products and shift resources to high-dispersion silica for tires, hydrophobic fumed silica and other special products. Supply of high-end fumed silica is tight. Order backlogs of some manufacturers lengthen and quotations stay high. The price gap between high-end and low-end products keeps widening. Cost of silica fluctuates slightly due to price changes of raw materials including silica sand, soda ash and industrial sulfuric acid. Profit margins of general grades keep shrinking, putting many small and medium producers under profit pressure. Routine environmental inspections continue in some areas. Manufacturers need stable supporting environmental treatment facilities, which indirectly raises operation costs and forces the industry to phase out backward and inefficient capacity. Meanwhile, new expansion projects in the industry are mostly focused on high-end modified silica. Approval for new projects of general precipitated silica has been tightened, curbing capacity expansion of general products in the long run. Restricted by process limits, some old production lines fail to meet standards in product dispersion and purity, and cannot enter high-threshold supply chains such as new energy tires and electronic silicone. They can only compete at low prices in the low-end market, continuously dragging down the overall profitability of the industry。

　　Demand shows a split pattern. Operation rates of traditional rubber and ordinary coating industries remain stable with limited new demand. The new energy tire industry keeps upgrading formulations. The penetration rate of high-dispersion silica rises steadily, driving order growth of relevant grades. Demand for silica in silicone composite materials and electronic potting materials increases gradually. Fumed silica, as a reinforcing filler for silicone rubber, sees continuous demand release. The high price of carbon black further accelerates material substitution by tire manufacturers, which will benefit high-performance silica products in the medium and long term. The shoe material and ordinary rubber product sectors are in low demand season. Downstream product manufacturers suffer from insufficient orders and low operating rates, leading to shrinking procurement of silica. The coating and matting powder sectors only maintain basic rigid demand procurement with slowed new product development and limited incremental demand. Emerging tracks such as new energy supporting materials and aerospace silicone keep expanding, raising quality requirements for hydrophobic and high-purity special silica and opening new growth space for leading material enterprises. New application scenarios including lithium battery separators and sealants continue to explore silica applications. Manufacturers develop customized modified grades to adjust hydrophilic and hydrophobic properties through surface modification to fit filling requirements of different polymer systems. The growth rate of this segmented market is significantly higher than that of traditional rubber sectors。

　　In foreign trade, China’s silica export structure keeps optimizing. Inquiries for high-end special silica increase from Southeast Asia and Europe, while exports of general precipitated silica face fierce competition and price pressure. The green transformation of overseas tire industry moves forward. Overseas buyers gradually increase procurement of high-dispersion silica, and recognition of China’s high-performance silica products overseas keeps improving. Exports of ordinary precipitated silica struggle to grow due to low-price competition from manufacturers in Southeast Asia. Fluctuations in international ocean freight rates impose certain impacts on costs of foreign trade orders, so some foreign trade enterprises are cautious about accepting long-term contracts. Relevant EU carbon border policies are continuously implemented. High-dispersion silica produced by low-carbon processes enjoys tariff advantages, and overseas buyers are willing to pay premiums, pushing leading domestic enterprises to accelerate the layout of low-carbon production processes. Environmental protection and work safety supervision remain strict, restricting production of small factories. Backward capacity in the industry is phased out at a faster pace, and industrial concentration is expected to further improve. Industry insiders predict that the silica market will maintain divergent operation in the short term. General products have little room for price hikes, while high-end special silica will stay firm. In the medium and long term, demand for high-performance silica will rise steadily with the development of downstream new energy and high-end silicone industries. The industry will fully shift its focus to high value-added special product tracks. Technological competition in the industry will center on surface modification, low-energy synthesis and low-carbon preparation. The development model relying on price competition will gradually fade out. Raw material manufacturers with stable quality and continuous R&D capabilities will gain greater advantages in future market competition。