By mid‑September 2026, China’s silica industry has bid farewell to the traditional cyclical market swings. The overall market operates steadily with narrowing price fluctuations, stepping into a new high‑quality competition phase featured by tiered supply‑demand structure, market differentiation and value‑oriented competition. Currently, the benchmark price of mainstream rubber‑grade precipitated silica remains stable at 6,100 yuan per ton. After a mild uptick at the beginning of the month, prices level off without fundamental drivers for sharp increases or declines. Trading sentiment stays moderate with limited momentum for drastic price moves. Compared with the synchronized price cycles in previous years, structural features become more prominent this year. Competition rules have been fundamentally transformed from the extensive model of capacity expansion and price‑cut rivalry into a multi‑dimensional value competition system covering cost control, modification technology, stable quality, green compliance and customized services. High‑end and low‑end markets are fully separated with independent price trends and profit cycles.

　　On the upstream raw‑material and production side, core feedstocks including sodium silicate and sulfuric acid maintain balanced supply and demand with narrow price swings this month. The cost side provides neutral and stable support for the silica sector, neither pushing prices sharply upward nor forcing them down. Major domestic silica producers keep stable plant operation, with the overall operating rate staying within a reasonable range of 70%‑80%. Sufficient capacity is released and commodity‑grade products are adequately supplied on the market. Nevertheless, structural supply‑demand imbalance stands as a key market pain point, and market polarization intensifies continuously. Long‑standing overcapacity troubles ordinary filled‑type precipitated silica. Homogeneous competition prevails among low‑end manufacturers. Slow inventory digestion and weak downstream demand lead to rising finished‑goods stocks. Small‑and‑medium‑sized enterprises adopt flexible discounts in real transactions to speed up capital turnover and ease inventory pressure. Profit margins for low‑end commodity grades are squeezed constantly, leaving most manufacturers barely profitable, breaking even or even suffering minor losses. In contrast, high‑end varieties such as high‑dispersion tire‑modified silica, high‑purity fumed silica, ultra‑fine functional silica and hydrophobically modified silica face tight effective supply restricted by formulation barriers, technical thresholds and limited premium capacity. Robust rigid demand from high‑end manufacturing keeps growing steadily. Premium products remain in short supply with extended delivery cycles, and certain high‑spec grades require order lead‑times from one to three months. Their pricing power and profitability resilience far outperform low‑end counterparts, concentrating industrial profits further on technology‑driven high‑end capacity.

　　Downstream application markets show obvious divergence: traditional sectors provide baseline support while emerging segments deliver strong incremental growth, serving as the core engine for industrial structural upgrading. In conventional fields including shoe materials, general rubber goods, standard industrial coatings and ordinary daily‑chemical fillers, demand remains steady without new growth drivers. End‑users in traditional manufacturing adopt highly conservative purchasing strategies characterized by hand‑to‑mouth procurement and small‑volume restocking to avoid inventory risks, showing little willingness for large‑scale stockpiling. They merely underpin basic market demand for ordinary silica and cannot lift the overall market, aggravating inventory and price pressure for low‑end grades. On the contrary, the rapid expansion of the new‑energy industry fuels a boom in high‑end material demand, acting as the main pillar for silica market growth. As the penetration rate of new‑energy vehicles rises continuously and energy‑saving green tires undergo iterative upgrades, newly‑implemented national tire standards prompt tire manufacturers to optimize formulations and greatly increase the dosage of high‑dispersion modified silica. With outstanding reinforcing, wear‑resistant and anti‑aging performance, premium modified silica effectively cuts tire rolling resistance, reduces vehicle energy consumption and extends EV driving range to satisfy core requirements for energy saving, safety and durability of high‑end tires. Tire‑specific high‑end silica has become the most vital growth track of the industry. Leading tire producers place long‑term locked‑in orders, keeping supply persistently tight and securing strong market bargaining power and high profitability.

　　Meanwhile, recovery in the downstream silicone industrial chain deepens further. Orders for high‑temperature vulcanized silicone rubber, liquid addition‑cure silicone rubber, neutral construction sealants, industrial anti‑corrosion sealing materials, high‑performance adhesives, toothpaste and cosmetic fine chemicals pick up gradually. Thanks to ultra‑fine particle size, ultra‑high purity and excellent thickening, thixotropic and anti‑settling properties, fumed silica serves as an irreplaceable core filler in high‑end electronic components, precision daily‑chemical products and premium sealing parts. Downstream manufacturers maintain rigid stocking demand with full order books and low inventories, pushing price levels moderately higher and sustaining substantial long‑term premiums. In addition, fast‑growing high‑precision emerging sectors such as lithium‑ion battery separator functional coatings, photovoltaic module sealants, new‑energy electronic packaging composites and medical‑grade polymer additives continuously open new growth space for high‑end modified and hydrophobic functional silica. They inject lasting momentum into industrial structural transformation, driving silica to evolve from a traditional chemical filler into a high‑end functional new material.

　　The export landscape undergoes profound restructuring. Green‑low‑carbon performance and carbon‑footprint compliance have become mandatory entry thresholds for overseas procurement, completely rewriting export competition rules. In recent years, carbon‑tariff policies and stricter green trade barriers in Europe, America, Southeast Asia and the Middle East keep lifting environmental access standards. Outdated, high‑energy‑consumption ordinary silica without low‑carbon certifications and complete carbon‑footprint records loses overseas competitiveness, with export volumes dropping month‑on‑month and year‑on‑year and the low‑end export market shrinking gradually. In comparison, high‑end modified and functional silica manufactured via eco‑friendly processes such as wastewater recycling and solid‑waste resource utilization, with full low‑carbon qualifications and complete carbon‑footprint reports, precisely meet international green trade standards. These products gain wide recognition from high‑end overseas buyers, securing stable bulk orders plus remarkable price premiums. They are gradually replacing commodity‑grade silica and becoming the core growth driver for China’s silica exports. Seizing transformation opportunities, leading domestic enterprises push forward green and refined upgrading of production lines. Process optimization, energy‑saving equipment renovation, three‑waste recycling and low‑carbon production systems reduce carbon emissions comprehensively. Manufacturers complete green‑product certification and carbon‑footprint traceability systems to match global high‑end market requirements and capture international new‑material orders, widening the gap with small‑scale low‑end capacity.

　　Industrial competition logic has been fundamentally reshaped. The old extensive model featuring capacity expansion and price wars is phased out completely, ushering in a value‑driven competition era focusing on technology, quality, customization, service and environmental performance. At present, customized formulation development, batch‑to‑batch stability, mass‑production consistency, weather resistance, product compatibility, sound low‑carbon compliance documents and professional technical support constitute critical barriers for enterprises to enter high‑end supply chains. The market spontaneously eliminates backward homogeneous, high‑energy‑consumption and low‑value‑added capacity. The pace of industrial upgrading, structural optimization and capacity elimination accelerates continuously, raising industrial concentration toward high‑quality leading manufacturers.

　　Considering both short‑term and medium‑long‑term outlooks, China’s domestic silica market will maintain a divergent pattern in mid‑to‑late September 2026: low‑end grades stay stable under profit pressure while high‑end products hold firm and strengthen. Ordinary precipitated silica lacks positive catalysts, with transaction prices fluctuating within a narrow band and manufacturers under sustained profit pressure. High‑dispersion tire‑modified silica and functional fumed silica remain in tight supply with firm quotations, stable premiums and satisfactory earnings. In the medium and long run, expanding high‑value‑added tracks including new‑energy vehicles, photovoltaic and lithium‑battery industries, premium silicone materials and sophisticated new materials will generate sustained rigid demand for high‑end functional silica, shifting industrial growth drivers toward high‑end, refined and eco‑friendly directions. In the future, premium resources, overseas high‑value orders and core profits will keep concentrating on leading enterprises equipped with core modification technologies, low‑carbon production capability, reliable quality‑control systems and customized service capacity. Market polarization and structural upgrading will deepen persistently, marking the entry of China’s silica industry into a brand‑new high‑quality‑development cycle featuring refinement, high‑end positioning, environmental sustainability and high added value.