By mid‑September 2026, China’s domestic silica market has emerged from a short period of mild volatility and returned to stable overall performance, with a continuously narrowing price fluctuation range. The quotation for mainstream rubber‑grade precipitated silica holds steady at 6,100 yuan per ton, lacking strong drivers for sharp rises or falls in the short term. The industry as a whole has moved beyond the early cyclical pattern of synchronized price increases and declines. Structural differentiation keeps intensifying, and the rules of market competition have clearly split: low‑end products compete on cost control, high‑end modified products compete on formulation and process technology, while export orders depend on low‑carbon compliance qualifications, with different product categories following entirely independent market trends. Upstream basic raw materials such as sodium silicate and sulfuric acid maintain balanced supply and demand with narrow price movements, and the cost side exerts no obvious pulling or suppressing effect on silica prices. Major domestic producers keep plant operating rates within a reasonable range of 70% to 80%, releasing sufficient overall capacity and saturating market supply. Structural supply‑demand imbalance remains the most prominent feature of the current market. Overcapacity for ordinary general‑purpose precipitated silica is still severe, finished‑goods inventories at factories keep accumulating, and small‑and‑medium enterprises offer flexible discounts in actual transactions to accelerate capital recovery, leaving low‑end products in a long‑term low‑profit operating state. By contrast, high‑end products such as high‑dispersion tire‑modified silica, high‑purity fumed silica and ultra‑fine functional silica are constrained by production process barriers with limited effective capacity. Sustained rigid downstream demand keeps market supply tight and delivery cycles lengthening, with solid profitability advantages, further widening the profit gap between high‑end and low‑end products.

　　Differences in demand across downstream application sectors have directly created the current bipolar market pattern. Traditional downstream fields such as shoe materials, ordinary rubber products and conventional coatings maintain basic rigid demand. Downstream purchasing enterprises remain generally cautious, widely adopting a strategy of procuring only as needed and restocking on a hand‑to‑mouth basis, with no plans for large‑scale inventory building. This merely forms baseline support for ordinary silica and can hardly drive the overall market higher. The continuous expansion of the new‑energy vehicle industry fuels rapid upgrading of the energy‑saving tire industrial chain. Leading tire enterprises keep optimizing product formulations and increasing the proportion of high‑dispersion modified silica. Relying on the material’s outstanding reinforcing performance, silica reduces tire rolling resistance, improves wear resistance, lowers vehicle energy consumption and enhances the driving range of new‑energy automobiles. Tire‑specific high‑end modified silica has become the most important growth track for the industry, supported by sufficient and stable downstream orders, persistently tight supply, stronger bargaining power and economic returns far exceeding those of ordinary grades. Beyond the tire market, downstream demand in the silicone sector recovers noticeably, with orders for high‑temperature vulcanized silicone rubber, liquid addition‑cure silicone rubber, construction sealants, industrial anti‑corrosion coatings and toothpaste‑grade daily‑chemical raw materials gradually picking up. Featuring ultra‑fine particle size, high purity and excellent thickening‑thixotropic effects, fumed silica plays an irreplaceable role in high‑end electronic sealing parts, premium adhesives and fine daily‑chemical products. Downstream enterprises face extended order scheduling, and high‑end functional products maintain considerable premiums over the long term. Emerging industries such as lithium‑ion battery separator coatings, photovoltaic sealants, electronic packaging materials and medical polymer additives keep expanding, continuously unlocking new growth space for high‑end modified silica and injecting sustained momentum into the industry’s long‑term development.

　　The export landscape is undergoing a fundamental transformation, with green and low‑carbon compliance becoming a mandatory entry threshold for overseas procurement. The continuous implementation of European and American carbon tariff policies keeps raising green trade barriers. Low‑end silica with outdated processes, lacking carbon footprint documentation and low‑carbon certifications, sees declining overseas competitiveness and month‑on‑month drops in export transaction volumes. Premium modified silica produced with green processes including wastewater recycling and solid‑waste resource utilization, supported by complete carbon footprint archives, wins favor from overseas clients in Europe, America, Southeast Asia and the Middle East. These grades secure more stable orders and additional transaction premiums, gradually replacing low‑end products and emerging as a new growth engine for China’s silica exports. Leading domestic enterprises accelerate green upgrading of production lines. Through process optimization, energy‑saving equipment replacement and recycling of waste residues and wastewater, they reduce carbon emissions in production, complete a full set of green product qualifications, benchmark against international environmental trade standards and compete for high‑value global chemical orders. The logic of industry competition has been completely reshaped. The extensive model of seizing market share through low pricing and capacity expansion is gradually being eliminated by the market. Custom formulation development, stable batch‑to‑batch quality, complete low‑carbon qualifications and supporting technical services have become core competitive advantages for enterprises. The market is spontaneously eliminating backward homogeneous low‑end capacity, and the pace of industrial upgrading across the entire sector keeps accelerating.

　　From a short‑term market perspective, China’s domestic silica market will maintain a stable overall tone in mid‑to‑late September. Ordinary general‑purpose grades lack positive support, with transaction prices fluctuating within a narrow range and sustained profit pressure on enterprises. High‑end tire‑modified products and functional fumed silica operate under tight supply‑demand balance, with firm quotations and stable, considerable profit performance. Judging from medium‑and‑long‑term industry trends, high‑value‑added tracks such as new‑energy supporting tires, high‑end silicone materials and lithium‑battery and photovoltaic new materials will continuously release rigid demand, driving steady expansion of the high‑end silica market scale. In the future, industry profits and high‑quality customer resources will continue to concentrate on leading enterprises that master core modification formulations and possess low‑carbon green production capabilities. The bipolar market pattern will keep solidifying, and structural upgrading will dominate the development direction of the silica industry for a long time to come, marking the official entry of China’s silica sector into a high‑quality development stage characterized by refinement, high‑end positioning and environmental sustainability.