In late August 2026, China’s overall chemical market is still constrained by summer off‑season factors. Sustained high temperatures have notably suppressed operating rates of downstream industries such as rubber and composite materials. Coupled with phased energy‑consumption control, most downstream enterprises adopt a low‑inventory strategy with hand‑to‑mouth purchasing. As the traditional Golden‑September consumption peak draws near, market sentiment diverges. Some traders and downstream factories hold restocking expectations, yet no substantial recovery has taken place in end‑use consumption. The silica industry shows a distinct bipolar pattern. Conventional precipitated silica is trapped in high‑inventory and thin‑profit dilemmas, while demand for modified special‑grade silica applied in new‑energy tires, organosilicon sealing materials, photovoltaic and electronic sectors remains sound. Intertwined factors including raw‑material costs, capacity iteration, domestic‑demand recovery pace and overseas carbon‑trade barriers further widen industrial structural gaps.

  In terms of upstream raw materials, affected by plant maintenance and energy‑consumption quota control, sodium silicate, the core feedstock for precipitated silica, sees limited supply release and stays at relatively high price levels, delivering sustained rigid cost support for silica. The sulfuric‑acid market is adequately supplied. Nevertheless, downstream fertilizer sectors enter the traditional off‑season with weakened purchasing demand, and sulfuric‑acid prices fluctuate at low levels, partially offsetting cost hikes caused by sodium silicate. Summer power consumption hits annual highs, lifting industrial electricity costs and further increasing comprehensive production costs of precipitated silica. For small‑and‑medium‑sized manufacturers, raw‑material and energy costs rise simultaneously, continuously squeezing profit margins of ordinary general‑purpose grades. Some enterprises voluntarily lower plant operating loads to reduce low‑price goods flowing into the spot market and avert loss risks. No dramatic surges or slumps occur in raw‑material markets, yet a solid cost base strongly underpins finished‑product quotations.

  On the supply side, the overall operating rate of domestic precipitated silica remains at 70‑72%. Although the total industrial capacity is huge, operating rates vary sharply among enterprises. Backed by stable long‑term orders, leading enterprises maintain relatively high‑load plant operation and keep optimizing product mix. They cut output of low‑value‑added general rubber‑grade silica and divert capacities toward high‑dispersion and surface‑modified special‑purpose grades. Suffering dual pressures from rising costs and vicious low‑price competition, small‑and‑medium‑sized enterprises flexibly adjust operating rates according to market conditions. They prioritize order delivery for long‑term clients and voluntarily reduce spot‑market supply. Few new‑capacity projects build conventional general‑purpose precipitated‑silica lines; most target high‑value‑added tracks such as new‑energy tires, organosilicon sealing products and electronic auxiliary materials. Inventory divergence remains prominent. General‑purpose grades for tire filling and common rubber applications hold medium‑to‑high inventory, bringing tangible de‑stocking pressure. By contrast, modified silica for new‑energy and photovoltaic‑energy‑storage sectors is in tight supply, and order backlogs of many manufacturers extend to mid‑to‑late September. The fumed‑silica market also shows divergent trends. Ordinary hydrophilic grades face fierce competition with sideways price fluctuations, while high‑end special grades for electronic and photovoltaic adhesives are supply‑constrained by organosilicon monomers and enjoy strong bargaining power.

  The recovery of domestic downstream demand falls short of earlier market expectations. As the largest consumption field of silica, domestic tire enterprises maintain operating rates of 72‑77%. Downstream factories mainly adopt purchase‑on‑demand strategies without large‑scale centralized stock‑building. The traditional replacement‑tire market is dominated by stock‑based demand with limited short‑term increments. Green tires for new‑energy‑vehicle applications maintain sound development and continuously drive demand growth for high‑dispersion silica. Downstream buyers keep upgrading requirements for impurity control, batch stability and carbon‑footprint indicators, which acts as a core growth pillar for the tire segment. Silicone rubber and sealant industries feature strong counter‑cyclical attributes. Sustained demand release of photovoltaic‑energy‑storage‑related adhesives drives stable consumption of reinforcing silica. Traditional fields including coatings, feed additives and daily‑chemical sectors see stable demand with limited new orders, dominated by stock‑based competition. Approaching the September peak season, only a small number of downstream enterprises conduct small‑batch tentative stock‑up with overall prudent operations, and large‑scale restocking has not yet arrived.

  Export markets feature prominent structural characteristics with both opportunities and pressures. General‑purpose silica products face impacts from local overseas capacities and multi‑country competitors. Overseas buyers show obvious price‑suppression tendency, raising export resistance for ordinary grades. Benefiting from stable product quality, high‑dispersion modified special‑purpose silica achieves steady growth in overseas orders. Overseas carbon‑border‑trade regulations keep being implemented. Importers continuously raise review standards for carbon footprint, production traceability and compliance documents. Enterprises without green‑process upgrading face markedly rising export obstacles. The survival space for the previous low‑price‑high‑volume export model keeps shrinking. Enterprises with completed low‑carbon‑process upgrading and sound carbon‑accounting systems gain growing overseas competitive advantages. Export competition has evolved from mere price rivalry into comprehensive‑strength competition covering product quality, carbon‑management capabilities and customized services.

  In terms of enterprise operation, profit divergence within the industry widens further. SMEs focusing on general‑purpose grades operate mostly on slim profits and face loss‑making risks in certain periods under dual squeeze from rising costs and vicious low‑price competition. Relying on technical accumulation and tight market supply, enterprises engaged in high‑end modified‑product business maintain relatively favorable profitability. The proportion of R&D investment across the whole industry rises steadily. More enterprises deploy businesses in emerging downstream tracks, optimize product portfolios and reduce the proportion of low‑end red‑ocean‑market businesses. Industrial reshuffling moves forward steadily. Small‑and‑medium‑sized capacities lacking technical reserves and competent cost‑control capabilities are under mounting survival pressure, and the pace of market elimination accelerates moderately.

  Market outlook: the off‑season effect will persist in the short run, and quotations for general‑purpose silica grades maintain a weak‑stable pattern. Strong cost support limits downside risks; slow domestic‑demand recovery and unfulfilled Golden‑September expectations cannot drive price hikes, so the probability of sharp price fluctuations is low. Supported by demand from new‑energy and organosilicon tracks, high‑end modified special‑purpose grades keep firm market sentiment, and some short‑supplied grades enjoy premium space. After entering September, close attention shall be paid to production‑recovery strength and actual restocking intensity of tire, rubber‑goods and sealant manufacturers, as well as the continuity of overseas export orders and release rhythm of new high‑end special‑purpose capacities. From a medium‑and‑long‑term perspective, dual‑control over energy consumption, environmental‑protection supervision and overseas carbon‑trade policies will keep phasing out backward capacities. The core of enterprise competition gradually shifts from capacity scale to modification‑technology strength, cost‑control level and full‑chain green‑manufacturing competence. The structural pattern of “pressure on general‑purpose products and strength in special‑purpose products” in the silica industry will keep evolving.