In late August 2026, China’s chemical industry remains in the traditional summer off‑season. High‑temperature weather curtails operating rates of downstream factories, coupled with phased energy‑consumption control. End‑users adopt prudent purchasing attitudes and mostly maintain low‑inventory operations. As the traditional Golden‑September peak season approaches, bullish market sentiment rises, yet actual downstream order releases fail to keep pace. The silica industry presents a distinct bipolar pattern. General‑purpose silica faces multiple pressures including sluggish demand, high inventory and squeezed profits, while demand for modified special‑grade silica applied in new‑energy tires, organosilicon, photovoltaic and electronic materials stays robust. Intertwined factors including raw‑material costs, domestic capacity iteration, overseas carbon barriers and impacts from foreign competitors further amplify industrial structural differentiation.

  In terms of upstream raw materials, restricted by equipment maintenance and energy‑consumption quotas, sodium silicate, the core feedstock for precipitated silica, can hardly achieve ample supply and delivers continuous cost support for finished products. The sulfuric‑acid market has sufficient supply. However, downstream fertilizer sectors enter the traditional off‑season with weakened purchasing demand, and sulfuric‑acid prices fluctuate at low levels, partially offsetting cost increases caused by sodium silicate. Peak summer power consumption raises factories’ electricity expenses and further pushes up overall production costs. For small‑and‑medium‑sized manufacturers, raw‑material and energy costs rise simultaneously, continuously squeezing profits of ordinary‑grade products. Some enterprises proactively cut plant operating rates to prevent low‑price goods from flooding the spot market and avoid loss risks. Raw‑material markets see no drastic price swings, and a solid cost base strongly underpins product quotations.

  On the supply side, the overall operating rate of domestic precipitated silica remains at 70‑72%. Supported by sufficient long‑term orders, leading enterprises keep stable plant operation, continuously optimize product mix, reduce output of low‑value‑added general rubber‑grade silica and tilt capacities toward high‑dispersion and surface‑modified special‑purpose products. Suffering dual impacts of rising costs and vicious low‑price competition, small‑and‑medium‑sized enterprises adjust operating rates flexibly according to market conditions, give priority to orders from long‑term partners and cut spot‑market shipments. Few new projects construct traditional general‑purpose precipitated‑silica production lines; most target high‑value‑added tracks such as new‑energy tires, organosilicon seals and electronic auxiliary materials. Inventory differentiation remains a major market feature. General‑purpose grades for tire filling and common rubber use hold medium‑to‑high inventory, bringing prominent de‑stocking pressure. By contrast, modified silica for new‑energy and photovoltaic‑energy‑storage sectors is in tight supply, and order backlogs of many manufacturers extend to mid‑to‑late September. The fumed silica market also shows divided performance. Ordinary hydrophilic grades face fierce competition with sideways prices, while high‑end special grades for electronic and photovoltaic adhesives are supply‑constrained by organosilicon monomers and enjoy strong bargaining power.

  The recovery of domestic downstream demand falls short of earlier market expectations. As the largest consumption field of silica, domestic tire enterprises maintain operating rates of 72‑77%. Downstream factories generally adopt purchase‑on‑demand strategies without large‑scale centralized stock‑building. The traditional replacement‑tire market is dominated by stock‑based demand with limited short‑term increments. Green tires for new‑energy‑vehicle applications maintain steady growth and continuously boost demand for high‑dispersion silica. Downstream buyers set higher standards for impurity content, batch stability and carbon‑footprint indicators, which serves as the core growth driver for the tire segment. Silicone rubber and sealant sectors feature strong anti‑risk capability. Expanding output of adhesives for photovoltaic and energy‑storage scenarios drives stable consumption of reinforcing silica. Traditional fields including coatings, feed additives and daily‑chemical sectors see stable demand with limited new orders, dominated by stock‑based competition. As September’s peak season draws near, only a small number of downstream enterprises carry out small‑scale tentative stock‑up, and overall operations remain conservative.

  Export markets face mounting pressure together with structural opportunities. General‑purpose silica products are impacted by local overseas capacities and multi‑country competitors. Overseas buyers show obvious price‑suppression tendency, increasing export difficulties for ordinary grades. Benefiting from stable product quality, high‑dispersion modified special silica achieves steady growth in overseas orders. Overseas carbon‑border‑trade rules keep tightening. Importers continuously raise review standards for carbon footprint, production traceability and compliance documents. Enterprises without green‑process upgrading are confronted with rising export obstacles. The survival space for the former low‑price‑high‑volume export mode keeps shrinking. Enterprises with completed low‑carbon renovation and complete carbon‑accounting systems gain enhanced overseas competitiveness. Export competition has evolved from mere price rivalry into comprehensive strength competition covering product quality, carbon‑management level and customized services.

  From the perspective of enterprise operation, profit divergence within the industry intensifies further. SMEs focusing on general‑purpose grades suffer dual squeeze from rising costs and vicious low‑price competition. Most operate on slim profits and face loss‑making pressure in certain periods. Relying on technical accumulation and tight market supply, enterprises engaged in high‑end modified‑product business maintain considerable profitability. The proportion of R&D investment across the whole industry rises steadily. More enterprises pivot to emerging downstream tracks, optimize product portfolios and reduce the proportion of low‑end businesses. Industrial reshuffling moves forward steadily, and small‑and‑medium‑sized capacities lacking technical reserves and sound cost‑control capabilities are under growing survival pressure.

  Market outlook: the off‑season environment will persist in the short run, and quotations for general‑purpose silica grades maintain a weak‑stable pattern. Strong cost support limits downside risks; slow domestic‑demand recovery and unfulfilled peak‑season expectations cannot drive price hikes, so the possibility of drastic price fluctuations is low. Supported by demand from new‑energy and organosilicon tracks, high‑end modified special grades keep firm market sentiment, and some short‑supplied grades still have premium space. After entering September, market participants shall pay close attention to the production‑recovery amplitude and actual restocking intensity of tire, rubber‑goods and sealant manufacturers, as well as the continuity of overseas export orders and release rhythm of new high‑end special‑purpose capacities. In the medium‑and‑long term, energy‑consumption control, environmental‑protection policies and overseas carbon‑trade barriers will keep eliminating backward capacities. Enterprise competition shifts from capacity‑scale rivalry to modification‑technology strength, cost‑control competence and full‑chain green‑manufacturing capabilities. The bipolar market pattern of the silica industry will keep evolving.