August 23, 2026. China’s silica industry is undergoing an in-depth shift in supply chain logic. Carbon footprint accounting and low-carbon production certification have gradually become mandatory reference standards for procurement by domestic and overseas buyers. Coupled with demand contraction brought by the seasonal off-season of traditional downstream sectors, the development gap between new and old production capacities as well as high and low value-added products in the industry has widened further. Monitoring data shows that the benchmark quotation of domestic silica remains at 6033.33 yuan per ton, edging up slightly compared with the beginning of the month. The overall price center is higher than that of the same period last year, yet profit margins vary sharply across different product categories. Low-carbon modified and special high-purity grades maintain strong bargaining power, while profit margins of conventional precipitated silica without low-carbon transformation keep shrinking.

　　The upstream raw material supply chain shows regional divergence, and recycled raw materials are gradually affecting the cost structure. The production of sodium silicate from traditional mineral raw materials remains the mainstream approach. Prices of soda ash and sulfuric acid fluctuate within a limited range, offering neutral cost support for conventional precipitated silica. Meanwhile, leading enterprises actively adopt recycled raw materials such as industrial silicon slag and waste glass to produce sodium silicate, and manufacture silica with supporting carbon dioxide recovery processes. This approach cuts raw material procurement costs and lowers product carbon emissions to meet the requirements of the EU CBAM carbon tariff calculation. High metallurgical silicon prices continue to lift the production costs of fumed silica. With the continuous implementation of dual controls on energy consumption, small and medium-sized manufacturers incapable of low-carbon transformation struggle to enter the high-end fumed and electronic-grade silica markets, and premium industrial capacity is further concentrated among leading manufacturers.

　　The logic of capacity adjustment on the supply side has shifted, and new projects prioritize low-carbon and specialized product lines. Few new production lines for conventional precipitated silica have been launched in the industry this year. Most existing low-end facilities operate intermittently and adjust production loads flexibly according to orders to avoid inventory accumulation during the off-season. Enterprises with technological strength focus their expansion projects on niche tracks including high-dispersibility silica for tires, hydrophobically modified silica for lithium battery separators, and high-purity silica for food and pharmaceutical applications, with supporting low-carbon process upgrades. These products can be supplied with complete carbon footprint reports. In terms of inventory, social inventories of ordinary industrial silica keep rising with sufficient spot supply in circulation. Certified low-carbon high-end silica continues the build-to-order model, and many downstream new energy and premium tire enterprises place advance orders, resulting in tight spot availability.

　　Procurement standards in downstream markets have been upgraded, and low-carbon qualifications have become a key evaluation indicator alongside product performance. As the largest consumer market for silica, the tire industry sees domestic automakers continuously promoting energy-saving tires with low rolling resistance, sustaining stable demand for high-dispersibility silica. Leading tire manufacturers give procurement priority to products with sustainability certifications. In contrast, small and medium tire producers face high finished goods inventories and stay cautious about off-season procurement, only purchasing conventional precipitated silica on demand. Emerging tracks such as photovoltaic sealants, lithium battery materials, special anti-corrosion coatings and pharmaceutical anti-caking agents keep expanding. They impose strict requirements on silica regarding purity, impurity content and dispersion stability. At the same time, overseas end brands require suppliers to provide full carbon emission data, forcing upstream silica manufacturers to upgrade production processes. Demand remains sluggish in traditional fields including shoe materials, common rubber components and civil coatings, with buyers showing strong willingness to push down prices and intensifying competition in the low-end silica market.

　　The foreign trade landscape is being reshaped, and carbon tariff policies drive the optimization of export structures. With the implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, export costs for high-emission conventional precipitated silica have risen, leading to a noticeable reduction in overseas orders. Functionally modified silica produced with recycled raw materials and low-carbon processes qualifies for partial carbon tariff exemptions, boasting markedly improved competitiveness in overseas markets and maintaining rapid growth in export orders. Benefiting from RCEP policies, supporting manufacturing demand in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America stays stable. Domestic enterprises continue to cultivate mid-to-high-end overseas clients, reduce homogeneous low-price competition, and capture global market share through differentiated modified products.

　　Looking ahead, the silica market will maintain a structurally divergent trend in the short term. Conventional products lack upward momentum and will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range, while low-carbon high-end functional silica will hold firm prices backed by rigid downstream demand and compliant procurement requirements. As the traditional peak season arrives in September, operating rates in the tire, coating and adhesive industries are expected to rebound and drive a recovery in overall market trading. In the medium and long term, low-carbon production, carbon footprint traceability and customized modification will become the core competitiveness of silica manufacturers. Leading enterprises capable of building an upstream and downstream circular industrial chain and offering a complete product portfolio will keep benefiting from the dividends of global green supply chain transformation. Industry practitioners need to keep track of carbon-related trade policies at home and abroad as well as changes in downstream end demand, and rationally plan production line upgrades, raw material stocking and product sales layout.