Mid-August has arrived, and China’s chemical industry remains trapped in the traditional summer off-season cycle. Downstream purchasing slows down for rubber products, building waterproof materials, industrial coatings and rubber-plastic auxiliary materials. The vast majority of manufacturers adopt a prudent business philosophy: purchase only as needed and exercise strict control over total inventory. In the sweltering summers of previous years, the silica industry generally rolled out price cuts to clear stocks, leading to a continuous decline in overall market prices. However in 2026, cyclical fluctuations in the industry have been greatly weakened, the boundary between peak and off seasons is increasingly vague, and a tiered and differentiated operation pattern has taken deep root. Supply and demand for conventional precipitated silica applied to commercial vehicle tires, ordinary rubber hoses, transmission belts and other fields are basically balanced with prices fluctuating slightly. High-end fumed silica used for photovoltaic encapsulant, protective coating of lithium battery separators, as well as sealing and shock-absorbing components for precision electronics is in tight spot supply with firm and rising selling prices. Low-carbon silica manufactured via the recycling process of rice husk ash agricultural and forestry waste has smoothly gained access to mainstream procurement channels in Europe and America supported by complete carbon footprint certification, bringing in successive long-term overseas orders and driving continuous optimization and upgrading of foreign trade structure. Industrial competition has long transcended the initial stage of simple output comparison, evolving into an all-round contest centered on low-carbon production qualifications, customized formula modification and multi-scenario application adaptation capabilities.
Based on offline field surveys conducted on August 15 and monitoring data from major chemical platforms, the average ex-factory price of mainstream domestic industrial-grade precipitated silica holds steady at 6,000 CNY per ton. The overall fluctuation range stood below 2% in early August amid mild market trends, while price gaps among various product categories keep widening. Conventional rubber-reinforcing silica is quoted between 5,760 CNY and 6,210 CNY per ton, mainly supplied to traditional freight vehicle tires, sealing gaskets and conveyor belt markets featuring sluggish trading and insufficient upward momentum. Demand for high-dispersion modified silica tailored for quiet, low rolling-resistance new energy vehicle vehicles climbs steadily, pushing its market quotation up to 6,330–6,710 CNY per ton. High-purity precipitated silica dedicated to food anti-caking agents, pharmaceutical excipients and toothpaste abrasives is immune to seasonal cycles, stabilizing at roughly 6,500 CNY per ton. Price tiers of fumed silica are clearly defined: domestic general hydrophobic fumed silica is priced at 20.1–23.5 CNY/kg; ultra-fine modified fumed silica exclusively for photovoltaic and energy storage adhesives is in short supply at 25.2–28.2 CNY/kg; imported ultra-high-purity electronic-grade fumed silica still dominates the high-end segmented market priced at 28.8–39 CNY/kg, with domestic substitution of premium products advancing at a steady pace.
The supply side is marked by prominent divergence in operating rates, with the industry-wide average operating rate ranging from 75% to 80%. Leading silicon material enterprises secure long-term cooperation orders for new energy adhesives, eco-friendly tires, high-end daily chemicals and low-carbon export products, running production lines at full capacity around the clock and maintaining finished goods inventory at persistently low levels. Restricted by scarce sporadic orders and slim processing profits, small and medium-sized manufacturers voluntarily slash production loads, arrange production line maintenance and environmental protection equipment upkeep during the off-season, and take the initiative to avoid unprofitable price-driven competition, effectively alleviating the overcapacity pressure of low-end silica. Sustained high temperatures keep widening the production cost gap between northern and southern production zones. Established industrial clusters in East and South China need non-stop cooling equipment for workshops. Energy consumption for harmless treatment of wastewater and waste gas plus operation and maintenance costs for online environmental monitoring systems rise simultaneously, driving rigid growth in production costs and drastically compressing room for price cuts on low-end products. Northern production bases enjoy cool summer weather and spacious factory premises; nearby procurement of quartz sand and sodium silicate greatly cuts logistics expenses alongside lower energy consumption for cooling and three-waste treatment, granting them prominent comprehensive cost advantages. Recently, numerous inland traders have adjusted their purchasing preferences, lifting the circulation proportion of northern supplies and quietly reshaping the regional supply-demand circulation landscape. Industry researchers point out that structural overcapacity of conventional ore-processed general silica has not been completely resolved. Demand growth for tires matched with traditional fuel vehicles remains weak, propped up barely by the tire replacement market, which is unable to trigger a trend upturn for low-end varieties. Although homogeneous price competition has cooled markedly, it has not vanished entirely.
Emerging non-tire application sectors boast abundant growth potential, having surpassed the traditional rubber segment in market scale and become the core driver fueling the expansion of the silica industry. The third quarter ushers in a concentrated delivery phase for domestic photovoltaic projects, with residential distributed photovoltaic power stations and large-scale ground-mounted energy storage power stations completed and put into operation in batches. Silicone sealants for photovoltaic encapsulation achieve booming production and sales. As a critical anti-settling, thickening and UV aging-resistant filler in the adhesive system, hydrophobic nano fumed silica has had its full-quarter purchasing volume locked in advance by downstream adhesive manufacturers, resulting in scarce spot inventory and extended mainstream delivery cycles of around two and a half months. Power battery and energy storage battery manufacturers continuously iterate safety coating technologies for separators. High-purity ultra-fine silica can effectively boost separators’ heat resistance and puncture strength, with its application ratio rising year by year. Leading domestic material suppliers have postponed production schedules to mid-October amid mounting pressure to fulfill orders. With rising market penetration of new energy vehicles, these vehicles feature heavier curb weights and stronger instantaneous starting torque, imposing stricter requirements on tire noise reduction and rolling resistance. Tire formulas contain 15%–22% more high-dispersion silica than those for fuel vehicles, supporting steady demand release for modified precipitated silica and rendering it one of the few steadily growing varieties within the tire sector. In addition, niche sectors including fine daily chemicals and pharmaceutical excipients demonstrate robust demand resilience: soothing and thickening fillers for personal care products, toothpaste abrasives and tablet anti-caking agents maintain stable annual demand unaffected by seasonal fluctuations. Ultra-high-purity fumed silica serves as the base raw material for internal sealing, shock absorption and thermal buffering components inside wireless earbuds, smart bracelets and miniature sensors. These high-end niche segments achieve far faster growth than the traditional industrial market, continuously broadening the overall application boundaries of silica.
The foreign trade market sustains the positive momentum of rising volume and price, with increasingly diversified export destinations effectively offsetting market shocks triggered by the launch of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Customs import and export statistics for the first half of the year reveal that China exported 769,000 tons of silica from January to June 2026, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%; total export value reached USD 442 million, jumping 21.15% year-on-year alongside climbing average export prices. Imports totaled merely 40,000 tons, down 8.95% year-on-year as domestic substitution of high-end products accelerates. Following the regular collection of the EU carbon tariff, silica produced via the traditional quartz sand and sulfuric acid process generates high carbon emissions, sharply pushing up export tariff costs. Small and medium-sized factories incapable of low-carbon renovation and unable to provide complete carbon emission ledgers have gradually withdrawn from the European market. The rice husk ash recycling preparation process, researched and refined by domestic leading enterprises for more than a decade, has reaped development dividends. Replacing mineral quartz sand with agricultural waste rice husk ash cuts overall production carbon emissions by over 60% compared with conventional processes, and some products realize carbon negativity. Having successfully obtained EU green raw material certification, these products can not only evade hefty carbon tariffs during exports but also secure a green premium ranging from 8% to 15%, with order growth far outpacing that of ordinary industrial-grade silica.
Currently, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa have evolved into core overseas destinations for China’s mid-to-low-end silica. Benefiting from the zero-tariff policy under the RCEP free trade agreement, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand keep expanding industries of rubber goods, construction sealants and daily chemicals, absorbing large volumes of domestic conventional precipitated silica. Countries across the Middle East spare no effort to advance urban infrastructure and oil & gas supporting projects, triggering explosive demand for building sealing materials and industrial rubber fittings, with import volume surging over 30% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Light industries in Central Asian nations develop steadily, releasing moderate demand for basic silica fillers. Multiple industrial leaders are accelerating global capacity layout by constructing fine processing and packaging bases in Southeast Asia. Domestic factories undertake core technical procedures such as raw material purification and surface modification, while overseas bases complete packaging and delivery to comply with local trade regulations, circumvent carbon tariffs and various trade barriers, and consolidate overseas market share.
Low-carbon closed-loop circular production and customized formula R&D have become the core watershed reshuffling the industry, speeding up the elimination of high-energy-consuming, high-polluting backward and inefficient capacity. The conventional production route of preparing water glass through high-temperature melting followed by sulfuric acid acidification consumes massive non-renewable quartz mineral resources, generates over 4 tons of carbon emissions per ton of finished product, and discharges abundant hard-to-treat high-salinity wastewater. Annual environmental operation costs keep rising, constantly squeezing corporate profit margins. At present, innovative technologies including rice husk ash resource utilization and carbon dioxide carbonization have achieved full-scale mass production. Silicon elements are extracted from rice husk ash, waste heat from incineration is recovered to supply production heating for factories, carbon dioxide replaces sulfuric acid for acidification, and production byproducts can be recycled and reused, fundamentally resolving the challenge of high-salinity wastewater treatment from the source. This production model not only consumes agricultural and forestry solid waste and eliminates air pollution caused by open burning of rice husks in farmlands but also drastically reduces production energy consumption and carbon emissions. The purity and dispersibility of finished products better meet the stringent application standards of high-end daily chemicals and green tires. Many leading enterprises have built a blockchain-based full-process carbon tracing system that comprehensively records carbon emission data throughout raw material procurement, production processing and finished goods outbound delivery, and have obtained International Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs), granting them remarkable advantages in overseas brand supply chain access and bidding for large-scale engineering projects. In contrast, small workshops suffer from capital shortages, unable to upgrade environmental equipment or establish carbon accounting systems, and lack R&D capacity for surface modification. They can only compete for scattered small orders via low prices, leading to shrinking living space and continuous concentration of industrial capacity among leading enterprises. Multiple industrial institutions predict that the combined market share of the top five enterprises will witness a notable increase by the end of 2026.
With regard to the overall market trend from late August to the fourth quarter, industrial analysts unanimously deliver a forecast of steady differentiation: late August will remain within the traditional summer off-season with no drastic price surges or slumps across the market; conventional precipitated silica will consolidate amid narrow fluctuations; the tight supply of high-end fumed silica dedicated to photovoltaics, lithium batteries and electronics will persist with prices staying firm. Upon entering September, the rubber processing, waterproof material and industrial coating industries will usher in the traditional autumn construction peak. Coupled with the concentrated release of downstream stocking demand ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the overall silica market will experience a mild phased upturn. In the long run, the extensive development model featuring blind capacity expansion and vicious price competition has drawn to a complete end. Customized surface modification technologies, low-carbon closed-loop circular production systems and balanced layout across domestic and overseas markets constitute the three pivotal factors determining enterprises’ core competitiveness. Silica will thoroughly break away from its single identity as a traditional rubber reinforcing filler and gradually develop into a core inorganic silicon new material widely applied across six major sectors: new energy storage, automobile manufacturing, fine daily chemicals, biomedicine, precision electronics and agricultural & forestry circular materials, steadily advancing transformation and upgrading toward green development, refinement and high-end positioning.
