Mid-August has arrived, with extensive sweltering heat lingering across China. Chemical hubs in East China, North China, Central China and other regions have fully entered the traditional summer demand off-season. Persistent high temperatures raise the difficulty of workplace safety management for chemical manufacturers and increase heat dissipation pressure on production equipment, prompting factories to adopt staggered production and equipment maintenance schedules. Meanwhile, overall end consumption stays tepid: demand for vehicle tire replacement declines, production and sales of rubber goods slow down, and orders for architectural coatings shrink. In previous years, silica prices tended to weaken and transaction prices gradually eased as downstream purchasing contracted during this period. However, the industrial landscape has changed markedly in 2026. Supported by stable upstream raw material costs, unified production curbs and price stabilization measures rolled out by major manufacturers, and sustained rigid demand from emerging sectors including new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, lithium batteries and precision electronics, the overall silica market has shaken off weak volatility and trended slightly upward. Market segmentation has become increasingly pronounced: conventional filler grades see balanced supply and demand with flat prices, while high-end functional silica featuring reinforcement, low volatility and hydrophobicity suffers tight supply and firm quotations. Real-time statistics released by domestic silicone industry information platforms and bulk commodity monitoring agencies on August 12 show that the comprehensive benchmark quotation for national silica stood at 6,000 CNY per ton on the day, a slight uptick from the previous day and a cumulative rise of over 1% compared with early August. The mild decline recorded in late July has been fully reversed, and the market bottom has been steadily consolidated. Performance varies drastically across categories: precipitated silica recovers slowly on sporadic rigid replenishment orders from downstream buyers with modest growth momentum; high-purity fumed silica has long held firm at high levels with minimal annual price fluctuations, and the gap in spot availability clearly reflects the divergence in market sentiment.

　　In terms of overall supply conditions, the average operating rate of domestic silica production lines is maintained between 62% and 65%, notably lower than the full-capacity output during spring and autumn peak seasons. The industry has a strong initiative to cut capacity release and resolve the long-standing overcapacity issue. Prolonged hot weather hinders continuous production and raises potential safety hazards. Local emergency management authorities have carried out special summer safety inspections alongside routine environmental supervision. In the five core production bases of Shandong, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan, numerous small and medium-sized manufacturers have voluntarily reduced operational loads, while outdated, high-energy-consuming production lines with inadequate environmental facilities have been suspended for maintenance. Total silica circulating in the market has been effectively reduced, easing the strain of supply-demand imbalance. In addition, leading large-scale domestic silica producers have reached an unspoken consensus within the industry, abandoning the extensive low-price competition model for market share. Production and delivery are strictly arranged according to actual downstream orders to flexibly regulate shipment volumes, with no arbitrary price cuts or dumping for sales targets. At present, overall industrial social inventory has fallen to a relatively low annual level. Conventional silica for general rubber reinforcement and plastic fillers boasts an inventory turnover cycle of roughly one week, marking a basic balance between supply and demand. In contrast, high-dispersion precipitated silica and hydrophobically modified fumed silica applied to low rolling-resistance new energy tires, photovoltaic module sealants, lithium battery separator coatings and waterproof insulation encapsulation for electronic components face a substantial supply gap. Orders at major leading enterprises have been scheduled all the way to early September, and the tight supply situation cannot be reversed in the short run.

　　Persistent firm prices of upstream raw materials have formed a solid cost barrier for silica, serving as the core driver of the market’s rebound from decline. Three indispensable raw materials for precipitated silica production—water glass, industrial silicon and concentrated sulfuric acid—have maintained a steady-to-strong trend with no downward momentum recently. Hydropower supply in Southwest China remains abundant and stable, sustaining orderly industrial silicon production. Coupled with routine stockpiling procurement by downstream silicone monomer manufacturers, industrial silicon prices have stayed flat for a long time, setting the minimum production cost threshold for silica. Tight regional supply of water glass, triggered by constrained quartz sand feedstock and rotating maintenance-induced production cuts across factories, has led many suppliers to moderately raise factory prices, continuously squeezing profit margins for silica producers and greatly reducing their willingness to slash prices for shipments. Methylchlorosilane monomers, the core feedstock for fumed silica, have long commanded high prices. Some large monomer suppliers have limited shipments and suspended quotations for scattered orders to further tighten market circulation, transmitting persistently high raw material costs downstream. Divergent cost transmission has deepened market stratification: low-end conventional precipitated silica receives weak cost support, with limited gains and range-bound fluctuations; high-end fumed silica enjoys ample cost backing and strong resistance to price drops. No dramatic shifts are expected in the upstream supply-demand pattern in the near future. Raw material costs will continue to underpin the silica market, ruling out the possibility of an overall sharp downturn.

　　Polarization of downstream demand has become increasingly prominent. Traditional rubber sectors are trapped in off-season sluggishness, while high-end tracks covering new energy, fine chemicals and optoelectronic materials enjoy robust demand. The offset between the two has fostered the current distinctive structural market trend. As the largest downstream consumer of silica, the tire industry is weighed down by staggered high-temperature maintenance and falling demand for civilian vehicle tire replacement. The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire manufacturers has declined to 75%–80%, more than ten percentage points lower than spring and autumn peaks. Tire purchasers remain highly prudent, abandoning large-scale advance stockpiling entirely in favor of frequent small-batch restocking based on actual needs. Large bulk orders are scarce, leading to muted trading activity for general reinforcing-grade precipitated silica and severely curbing its upside potential. Furthermore, demand for traditional applications including sports shoe soles, daily rubber fittings, interior and exterior architectural decorative coatings and general plastic fillers has declined synchronously. Slow shipments of finished end products force the industrial chain to digest accumulated inventory from earlier periods, further dragging down the performance of low-end silica grades.

　　On the contrary, demand in high-end emerging application tracks keeps rising steadily, fully filling the demand vacuum caused by the off-season in traditional industries. With the rising market penetration of new energy vehicles year after year, lightweight design and low energy consumption have become the mainstream direction of the tire industry, boosting the popularity of low rolling-resistance green tires. Thanks to its outstanding reinforcement effect, rolling resistance reduction, wear resistance and anti-aging performance, high-dispersion silica is incorporated in a far higher proportion into new energy vehicle tires than conventional fuel vehicle tires, driving steady annual demand growth. Continuous expansion of the photovoltaic industry fuels capacity increases for silicone buffer rubber for photovoltaic frames, module sealants and insulating fittings for junction boxes, steadily unlocking procurement demand for ultra-fine, low-volatility and high-purity silica. In lithium battery production, modified silica acts as a key auxiliary material for separator coatings, electrode binders and battery housing sealing components. Niche segments such as supporting parts for 5G base stations, waterproof and insulating components for precision instruments, water-based eco-friendly industrial coatings and oral care abrasives also continuously consume fumed silica and modified precipitated silica. Sustained and stable rigid demand keeps high-end products chronically undersupplied, putting pricing power firmly in the hands of manufacturers.

　　Product quotations are clearly tiered at present, with price gaps determined by purity, dispersion performance and applicable scenarios. Factory prices for precipitated silica for general rubber reinforcement are mainly set between 6,000 and 6,500 CNY per ton. Low-end filler-grade silica is priced lower, mostly used for filling ordinary plastics and low-cost coatings. Ultra-fine high-dispersion silica custom-developed for new energy tires delivers superior comprehensive performance and commands a markedly higher price than conventional specifications. The fumed silica market has long remained stable with trivial price fluctuations: domestic hydrophilic fumed silica is mostly quoted between 20,000 and 23,500 CNY per ton; hydrophobically modified premium fumed silica for stringent electronic sealing conditions ranges from 25,000 to 28,000 CNY per ton; imported top-tier high-purity fumed silica features premium quality at a higher price, with no noticeable fluctuations recorded throughout the year.

　　Industry practitioners have conducted comprehensive research based on raw material trends, supply-demand fundamentals and seasonal cycles, concluding that late August will still fall within the traditional chemical off-season. Demand for tires, daily rubber goods and other conventional downstream products is unlikely to rebound sharply, so the overall silica market lacks momentum for unilateral steep gains. Nevertheless, depleted industrial social inventory and firm upstream raw material costs will continuously uphold the market bottom, and prices are expected to maintain a mild fluctuating upward trend. When temperatures drop in September, all high-temperature equipment maintenance will be completed, downstream tire and rubber goods manufacturers will resume full-capacity production, and sustained order expansion from the new energy vehicle, photovoltaic and lithium battery industrial chains will trigger concentrated demand growth for high-dispersion precipitated silica and high-purity fumed silica, unlocking further upside potential for the market.