Mid-August has arrived, and China’s chemical market has fully entered the traditional summer off-season. Sweltering weather shrouds major chemical hubs across East China, North China and Central China, leading to a general slowdown in production at downstream manufacturing enterprises. In previous years, silica prices tended to dip and trading turned sluggish alongside reduced downstream purchasing during this period. However, the market trend in 2026 has taken a different turn. Supported by rigid upstream raw material costs, joint production cuts and price stabilization efforts by mainstream manufacturers, and sustained demand from emerging industries including new energy, photovoltaics and lithium batteries, the overall silica market has edged upward amid fluctuations. Structural divergence has widened further, with ordinary low-end grades operating steadily while high-end functional varieties remain in tight supply. According to statistics from domestic silicone industry platforms and bulk commodity monitoring agencies, as of the closing on August 12, the comprehensive benchmark quotation for domestic silica stood at 6000 CNY per ton, a slight increase from the previous day and a cumulative rise of over 1% compared with the 5933 CNY per ton recorded in early August. This effectively reversed the mild downward trend seen in late July and continuously consolidated the market bottom. Performance varies sharply across product categories: precipitated silica has rebounded slowly driven only by rigid demand with modest growth momentum, while high-purity fumed silica has held firm at high levels with barely any price fluctuations, alongside a notable gap in supply availability.

　　In terms of overall supply conditions, the average operating rate of domestic silica production units is steadily maintained between 62% and 65%, markedly lower than the full-capacity output during peak seasons, reflecting the industry’s clear initiative to curb capacity release. Persistent high temperatures have imposed constraints on continuous chemical production, bringing greater heat dissipation pressure and heightened safety risks. The five core silica-producing regions—Shandong, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan—have successively launched special summer workplace safety inspections and routine environmental supervision. Many small and medium-sized manufacturers have voluntarily reduced production loads to evade inspection risks and ensure operational safety, while outdated, high-energy-consumption production lines have been suspended for scheduled maintenance, effectively cutting the total volume of silica circulating on the market and easing the long-standing problem of industrial overcapacity. Meanwhile, leading large-scale enterprises have reached a consensus to stabilize the market, abandoning the previous competitive strategy of seizing market share through low-price bulk sales. Production and delivery are strictly arranged in accordance with actual orders from downstream clients to regulate shipment pace reasonably without stockpiling or dumping goods at discounted prices. At present, overall industrial social inventory has fallen to an annual low level; the inventory turnover cycle for general rubber-filling silica is merely 7 to 10 days, striking a rough balance between supply and demand. In contrast, high-dispersion precipitated silica and hydrophobically modified fumed silica applied to low rolling-resistance new energy tires, photovoltaic module sealants, waterproof insulation for electronic components and lithium battery separator coatings face obvious supply shortages. Major manufacturers have scheduled orders all the way until early September, and the tight supply situation cannot be alleviated in the short term.

　　Firm prices of upstream raw materials have formed a solid cost floor for silica, serving as the core driving force behind the market’s rebound from decline. Key raw materials for precipitated silica production, namely water glass, industrial silicon and concentrated sulfuric acid, have all maintained stable prices with no room for decline recently. Industrial silicon prices have stayed flat thanks to stable hydropower supply in southwest China and regular procurement by methyl chlorosilane manufacturers, setting the minimum production cost threshold for silica. Tight supply of water glass nationwide, triggered by constrained quartz sand supplies and production suspensions for maintenance at multiple factories, has prompted moderate price hikes in some areas, squeezing profit margins for silica producers and greatly weakening their willingness to cut prices for sales. The primary feedstock for fumed silica, methyl chlorosilane monomers, has long remained expensive; some large monomer suppliers have capped shipments and halted open quotations, tightening market circulation and keeping raw material costs persistently high. Divergent cost transmission has created a clear tiered market landscape: low-end ordinary precipitated silica sees limited gains and fluctuates steadily, while high-end fumed silica boasts ample cost support and resists price declines firmly. Overall, the supply-demand pattern of upstream raw materials will not shift notably in the near future, continuing to underpin the silica market and ruling out the possibility of substantial price drops.

　　Polarization in downstream consumption has become increasingly prominent. Traditional rubber sectors are mired in sluggish off-season conditions, while high-end emerging fields covering new energy, fine chemicals, electronics and photovoltaics enjoy booming demand. The two trends offset each other, shaping the current distinctive structural market. As the largest downstream consumer of silica, the tire industry is constrained by high-temperature scheduled maintenance and slack demand for civilian vehicle replacement tires. Major domestic tire factories have adopted staggered production and rotating shutdown arrangements, dragging the overall capacity utilization rate down to 75%–80%, more than 10 percentage points lower than that in spring and autumn peak seasons. Tire purchasers have grown highly prudent, abandoning large-scale advance stockpiling and switching to frequent small-batch restocking based on actual needs. Bulk transactions are scarce, suppressing trading activity for general reinforcing-grade precipitated silica and curbing its upside potential. Additionally, demand for traditional applications including sports shoe soles, ordinary rubber fittings, interior and exterior wall architectural coatings and plastic fillers has declined synchronously. Slow shipments of end products force the industrial chain to digest accumulated inventory, further weighing on the performance of low-end silica grades.

　　On the contrary, demand in high-end emerging application sectors keeps surging, fully offsetting the demand deficit brought by the off-season in traditional industries. Rising penetration of new energy vehicles has made lightweight and low-energy consumption the mainstream development direction of the tire sector, fueling rapid popularization of low rolling-resistance green tires. With outstanding reinforcing, rolling-resistance reduction and wear-resistant properties, high-dispersion silica is incorporated in far higher proportions in new energy vehicle tires than in conventional fuel vehicle tires, driving steady year-on-year demand growth. Continuous expansion of the photovoltaic industry has scaled up production of silicone buffer rubber for photovoltaic frames, module sealants and insulating accessories for junction boxes, steadily boosting demand for ultra-fine, low-volatility and high-purity silica. In the lithium battery sector, modified silica is indispensable for separator coatings, electrode binders and battery housing sealing parts. Subdivided fields such as 5G base station components, waterproof fittings for precision instruments, water-based eco-friendly industrial coatings and oral care abrasives also sustain consistent demand for fumed silica and modified precipitated silica. Robust demand keeps high-end grades chronically undersupplied, putting pricing power firmly in the hands of manufacturers.

　　Current product quotations vary distinctly, with price gaps determined by performance, purity and application scenarios. Factory prices for general rubber-reinforcing precipitated silica mainly range from 6000 to 6500 CNY per ton. Low-end filler-grade silica is priced lower, applied primarily to plastic and conventional coating filling. Ultra-fine high-dispersion silica specially developed for new energy tires delivers superior performance and commands a noticeable premium over ordinary specifications. The fumed silica market has long remained stable with trivial fluctuations: domestic hydrophilic fumed silica is mostly priced between 20,000 and 23,500 CNY per ton; hydrophobically modified premium fumed silica for stringent electronic and sealing applications ranges from 25,000 to 28,000 CNY per ton; imported high-purity top-tier fumed silica features premium quality with no obvious price swings recorded throughout the year.
　　Industry practitioners have comprehensively assessed raw material trends, supply-demand balance and seasonal cycles, concluding that late August will still fall within the traditional chemical off-season. A sharp rebound in demand from tire factories and daily rubber goods manufacturers is unlikely, so the overall silica market lacks momentum for a unilateral steep rally. Nevertheless, depleted industrial inventory and stable upstream raw material costs will continuously prop up the market bottom, and prices are expected to maintain a mild upward fluctuating trend. When temperatures drop in September, high-temperature maintenance periods will conclude entirely, and downstream tire and rubber product manufacturers will resume full-capacity operation. Coupled with sustained order releases from the new energy vehicle, photovoltaic and lithium battery industrial chains, high-dispersion precipitated silica and high-purity fumed silica will witness concentrated demand growth, bringing further room for market upturn.