According to preliminary data from IDC's Global Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracking Report, global smartphone shipments in the second quarter of 2026 were 277.5 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%. This is the second consecutive quarter of year-on-year decline. The memory crisis continues to impact the market, not only significantly increasing costs, but also causing supply shortages. Samsung shipped 62.7 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with a share of 22.6%. Apple shipped 55.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, with a share of 20.1%. Xiaomi shipped 31.2 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 26.3%, with a market share of 11.2%. OPPO shipped 28.8 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%, with a share of 10.4%. Vivo shipped 21.2 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%, with a market share of 7.6%.
Silicone Market Weekly Report (July 13-19, 2026): DMC prices hit cost line, facing dual tests of bottom fishing and production reduction execution
Last week, the domestic silicone market continued its downward trend of bottoming out. The transaction price of mainstream DMC contracts has fallen to the range of 12300-12500 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 900 yuan/ton, reaching the full cost line of mainstream individual enterprises; The prices of various raw materials have also fallen back to the replenishment target range of most core large enterprises. As prices gradually approach the psychological support level of the market, the shipment rhythm of individual factories has improved compared to the previous period, indicating that low prices have had a certain marginal stimulating effect on rigid demand in the middle and lower reaches, and transactions have been amplified. However, the overall market sentiment is still in a sensitive stage of long short interweaving.
On the supply side, the operating load has dropped to 60%, and production has contracted month on month. According to industry monitoring data, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of individual units in 13 sample enterprises in China this week was about 60.30%, a decrease of 1.49 percentage points compared to last week; The sample production was 39700 tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons or 2.46% compared to the previous cycle. The overall operating load of the industry has dropped to about 60%, but the extent of supply reduction is limited, and the bottom support effect of production reduction on prices has basically collapsed. It is worth noting that with the significant drop in product prices, the industry's determination to reduce production is facing a severe test. Under the pressure of losses, some individual factories may adopt traditional business strategies of increasing equipment load to dilute fixed costs. Industry insiders pointed out that although the industry conference had previously clarified the production reduction plan, there are practical constraints on the implementation level - the production reduction will directly push up the fixed cost per ton. Against the backdrop of difficult price rebound, the actual willingness and intensity of individual factories to reduce production face significant uncertainty. The strategy of "trading price for volume" in the early stage actually intensified the market's downward pressure.
On the demand side, bargain hunting forces have entered the market, and the game between large and small orders has intensified. As of Thursday, the low price strategy of individual factories to stimulate demand has begun to take effect, and downstream large players have engaged in large-scale price cutting transactions. Multiple individual factories have experienced explosive orders. The bottom fishing sentiment of core large investors has heated up, and the transaction price has dropped to the 12000 yuan/ton mark. Local large orders (starting from 1000 tons) have already fallen below 12000 yuan in transactions. The current price difference between large and small orders has widened to 400-600 yuan/ton, leading to increasingly fierce competition between large and small buyers in the market. It is widely believed in the industry that a bottom fishing trend is coming - individual factories giving up profit space and quality assurance play an equally important role in stimulating demand. However, although the raw material inventory of most downstream enterprises is already at a relatively low level, in the context of no significant improvement in terminal demand, coupled with market doubts about the effectiveness of production enterprises' reduction in production, the middle and lower reaches generally maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and the purchasing side often adopts a defensive strategy of "following up on dips and building warehouses in batches" to avoid risks.
Bears believe that the substantial purchasing willingness in the terminal field has not significantly rebounded due to the price reduction of raw materials. The current stocking behavior of midstream and downstream enterprises is more manifested as speculative warehouse building based on price games, rather than real demand driven by terminal order growth. Under the traditional off-season background, the actual digestion rate of raw materials is still relatively slow. Therefore, the improvement in transactions caused by low prices is more of a temporary repair and does not yet have the fundamental support to form a trend reversal. The short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly near the cost line, and it is necessary to closely monitor the actual production reduction execution of individual factories and changes in terminal orders in the future.
Many observers believe that the market is currently in a critical stage of bottoming out, and the future direction of the silicone market mainly depends on whether the so-called "production reduction" can truly reduce production capacity. The next two weeks are a critical juncture: if the operating rate of individual factories can continue to decline and supply really decreases, upstream prices are expected to stabilize or even rebound; But if everyone just keeps shouting and the production reduction is not implemented properly, then the current low price will probably have to be repeatedly tossed around, and the time for bottoming out will definitely have to be postponed.
The current organic silicon market is at a critical juncture of intense competition between fundamentals and funding, which can be professionally broken down from the following three dimensions:
Price side: Currently, the spot price of DMC has deeply declined, approaching the cash cost line of some individual enterprises, and the cost side support effect is beginning to emerge. On the supply side: Despite the strong willingness of the industry to reduce production, there is still a significant time lag effect in the transmission from "willingness" to "substantial capacity clearance". Demand side: There has not been a substantial rebound signal in terminal demand, and overall digestion capacity is still weak.
The core variables of the current long short game focus on two points: first, whether the bottom fishing efforts of large industrial players can be continuously amplified; The second is whether the production reduction agreement can be truly implemented. If the downstream demand for bottom fishing is concentrated and released, and resonates with the substantial contraction of the supply side, the market is expected to build a solid bottom near the cost line; On the contrary, if the market's wait-and-see sentiment continues to dominate and the implementation of production cuts falls short of expectations, there is still room for further price declines.
From the perspective of market sentiment and micro transactions, most downstream buyers have clearly expressed their willingness to "build positions at low prices", and the psychological price triggering conditions have basically matured. With the recent significant increase in market inquiries and negotiation heat, a concentrated stocking wave is expected to start soon. Under the concentrated release of funds and demand, the market is expected to experience a substantial trend reversal.