Keep falling! Yesterday, most individual factories made up for a drop of 200-500 yuan/ton, with DMC reported at 12500-13500 yuan/ton and raw rubber reported at 14000-14500 yuan/ton. However, the actual transaction focus has shifted significantly downward - the transaction price for DMC's large clients has fallen to 12000 yuan/ton, and the transaction price for raw rubber was 13500 yuan/ton; The profit margin for large orders has significantly opened up. At present, individual factories are reducing their losses while following the decline in shipments to accelerate inventory transfer, and the middle and lower reaches are also replenishing inventory in moderation at low prices. In terms of demand, although terminal orders have rebounded, they are still weak. The attitude of middle and downstream enterprises towards low-priced raw materials is shifting from wait-and-see to moderate entry, and the procurement situation is showing a differentiated trend. Some companies are still pessimistic about the future market due to off-season considerations, and prioritize following up on urgent needs; Another group of companies believe that the current price has reached the expected psychological level, and the bottom fishing sentiment is gradually heating up, gradually entering the market to build positions. From this, it can be seen that low prices have opened up the stocking window for the middle and lower reaches, but large-scale bottom fishing still requires clearer signals to trigger. Currently, the market is in a transitional stage of "volume increase and price stability". Overall, after the current organic silicon prices have further bottomed out, the stimulating effect of low prices on demand is gradually emerging, and the transaction situation has significantly improved. If the coordinated production reduction of individual factories can continue to be implemented in the future, the market is expected to experience a temporary rebound; But if the implementation of production reduction is relaxed, the basis for price support will be tested, and the rebound space will also be limited. It is expected that the last two weeks of July will be a crucial window for the game between the two sides.
Industrial silicon: On the supply side, due to the reduction of electricity prices during the flood season in the southwest region, the previously shut down production capacity has gradually recovered, maintaining high load operation. The market circulation of goods is sufficient, and the pressure of inventory accumulation has increased. On the demand side, the progress of polysilicon production resumption is slow, and procurement is limited; Organic silicon monomer factories continue to reduce negative loads and have low operating rates, further reducing industrial silicon consumption. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance in the industrial silicon market remains unchanged, social inventories continue to rise, and there is a lack of effective bullish support in the short term. It is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range. As of July 16th, the closing price of the main futures contract Si2609 is 8435 yuan/ton; 421 # metal silicon quotation continues at 9200-9750 yuan/ton.
Precipitation white carbon black market: On the raw material side, although soda ash continues to bottom out, sulfur prices have risen again recently, and sulfuric acid has maintained a high level due to tight supply, resulting in relatively stable overall cost support. On the demand side, it is relatively weak, and the off-season of terminal consumption combined with the decline in upstream prices has led to losses for rubber mixing enterprises. With the lack of market confidence, procurement only maintains the pace of basic needs, and there are few new orders in the market. In the short term, due to the lack of clear directional guidance, it is expected that the market for precipitated white carbon black will continue to be weakly stable. Currently, the mainstream price for precipitated white carbon black used in silicone rubber is 6400-7600 yuan/ton, and flexible negotiations are the main focus.
Gas phase white carbon black market: On the cost side, the tight supply of Class A and the strong operation of the market provide stable support for gas silicon prices. On the demand side, it continues to be weak, with traditional construction and daily necessities fields only requiring rigid procurement, while high-end categories such as "sulfur free" gas-phase adhesives have a relatively ideal transaction situation due to import substitution demand. At present, the price of silicon gas maintains cost differentiation, with a high-end quotation of 25000-32000 yuan/ton and a low-end quotation of 19000-22000 yuan/ton for a specific surface area of 200. It is expected that the short-term price will remain stable and slightly strong, but the upward potential is still limited by the traditional demand carrying capacity, and the increase may be limited.
Overall, the current price of organic silicon has fallen to a low range, which has indeed stimulated some mid to downstream enterprises to actively enter the market and stock up. However, the operating rates of individual factories are facing differentiation, and some high cost manufacturers are already on the brink of losses. In order to dilute the fixed cost per ton, it is highly likely that the current operating load will still be maintained or increased, and the industry will find it difficult to form an effective production reduction synergy. The mismatch between supply and demand continues to suppress the price center, and there is still a risk of inertia in the price of 107 rubber and raw rubber in the short term. However, it should be noted that as the losses deepen, the probability of individual factories being forced to reduce production will also increase. In addition, considering that July is still in the traditional off-season, the recovery of terminal orders is limited, and the speed of raw material digestion after stocking up by enterprises is slow, it is difficult to form continuous support for demand, which makes the price rebound face certain resistance. It is expected that the short-term market will repeatedly tug at a low level, and the real rebound is still waiting for clearer turning signals from both the supply and demand sides.