Entering the latter half of the year, the organic silicon market continues its high-level game pattern, and the stalemate among all parties has not eased. From the supply side, most individual factory pre-sale orders can still support until early June, and enterprise inventory levels are generally low. Although the overall performance of new orders this week was flat, DMC prices showed strong resistance to decline with the support of remaining orders. Various individual factories generally maintained stable operations, and the mainstream quotation range remained stable at 14800-15200 yuan/ton.
However, structural contradictions are accumulating. With the gradual delivery of previous orders, the problem of price inversion between raw rubber, 107 rubber, and DMC has become increasingly prominent. The leading factory has implemented a "price for volume" strategy to significantly lower the transaction prices of raw rubber and 107 rubber, while other individual factories have not fully followed up due to pre-sale orders. If the inversion continues, the latter will face increasing shipping pressure, especially around the end of the month. On the demand side, there is a strong bearish expectation among midstream and downstream enterprises, leading to polarization in procurement behavior. For some enterprises with low inventory and relatively abundant funds, appropriate replenishment of low-priced 107 glue and raw glue from leading factories will be carried out; But more companies are concerned that the current price has not yet bottomed out and choose to continue watching. Whether leading factories can truly increase their volume by exchanging price for quantity has become the key to the shift in market sentiment. If the volume of discounted orders fails to increase as scheduled, it may further strengthen the market's expectation of price reduction, leading to a broader wait-and-see and game.
Industrial silicon: On the supply side, some regions are currently in the transition stage from normal to high water periods, and electricity prices have been lowered. However, considering the still weak market, the willingness of enterprises to resume production is still cautious. However, companies undergoing early maintenance in the north also have plans to resume production in the near future, and the overall supply pressure has significantly increased. On the demand side, polycrystalline silicon enterprises are operating under pressure, and the weak pattern has not changed; Organic silicon is currently operating steadily, with limited demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the current situation of the industrial silicon market is average, suppressing the upward space of prices. As of May 21st, the closing price of the main futures contract Si2609 is 8440 yuan/ton; The quotation for 421 # metal silicon is 9400-10000 yuan/ton. It is expected that the market will continue to experience weak fluctuations in the short term.
Precipitation white carbon black market: On the raw material side, due to the impact of the Middle East situation, sulfur prices have surged by 80% this year. Since sulfur prices broke historical highs in early April, the market continues to break price records. On May 21st, the domestic benchmark price reached a historic high of 7550 yuan per ton, and the rise in sulfur prices directly pushed up the production cost of sulfuric acid. At present, although the trading atmosphere in the sulfuric acid market has slowed down, some acid plants have made slight concessions on shipments due to increased inventory. However, with strong cost support, sulfuric acid is expected to maintain a high level pattern in the second half of the year; In terms of soda ash, due to equipment maintenance in some regions and different inventory situations of manufacturers, prices have differentiated. However, downstream suppliers maintain on-demand procurement, and overall prices remain stable. This week, the quotation for light alkali and heavy alkali is 950-1570 yuan/ton.
In terms of demand, the orders of mixed rubber enterprises have weakened in May, especially under the rise of precipitated white carbon black in the first quarter. Silicone rubber enterprises actively stock up, and some enterprises even lock up the quantity in advance. Therefore, there is currently no shipping pressure for precipitated white carbon black enterprises. Overall, with the support of high costs and previous orders, the current price of precipitated white carbon black for silicone rubber is 6800-8000 yuan/ton, continuing to maintain stability and consolidation.
Gas phase white carbon black market: On the raw material side, the supply of Class A market is tight, and the quotation in Shandong region is firm at 3300 yuan/ton, with strong cost support. In terms of demand, the demand for liquid and gas-phase adhesives continues to grow, especially as the new national standard is driving the trend of "sulfur free" silicone rubber. Various silicone enterprises are increasing their gas-phase adhesive production capacity, driving the demand for gas-phase white carbon black. This week, the high-end quotation for the specific surface area of silicon gas 200 is 25000-32000 yuan/ton, and the low-end quotation is 20000-22000 yuan/ton. It is expected that the tight supply-demand balance pattern will continue in the short term, and the market will remain stable and improve. Overall, the current organic silicon market remains at a high level with narrow price fluctuations. The core variables for the subsequent trend lie in whether the profit sharing strategy of leading factories can effectively leverage downstream demand, whether other individual factories will follow suit and adjust their quotations, and whether the implementation of industry emission reduction consensus is sufficient to support the existing price system. It is recommended that businesses closely monitor the delivery rhythm of orders and the actual transaction situation of leading factories before and after the end of the month, and flexibly adjust their inventory and procurement strategies.