According to Qunzhi Consulting, the global supply and demand ratio of advanced packaging capacity is expected to be around -23% by 2025. The capacity will reach a balance point in the second half of 2027 and enter a relatively mild growth cycle. HBM packaging has become a new growth engine for mainland manufacturers, and the global high-end packaging market is expected to reach $58.7 billion within this year, a year-on-year increase of 97%, almost doubling. The industry believes that the high-end packaging market will bring sustained and considerable incremental market for organosilicon.
Suddenly, a surge of 33%! Organic silicon 'little giant' erupts collectively! Yesterday, the stock prices of some organic silicon "little giants" collectively exploded and remained active! Jinhua New Materials surged 11.12%, Jianghan New Materials surged 7%, Jitai Shares surged 10%, Runhe Materials surged 6.3%, and Sanfu Shares suddenly surged over 33% this week. These companies generally have a high status in the industry, some of which are still top enterprises, and their products are full of technological content.
Thursday (May 21st) Organic Silicon Market Observation: Several DMC silicone oil manufacturers continue to raise prices! Polarization of orders
Entering Thursday, the silicone market is currently in a subtle "stalemate" and "differentiation". Overall, individual manufacturers have shown extreme caution in following the downtrend, and the mainstream tone in the market remains to maintain price stability. DMC, a leading enterprise in Shandong, continues to raise prices by 14800 yuan/ton, but the hidden price game has already emerged at the transaction end.
The strategy of leading factories has been effective, and orders have shown polarization: orders are the "barometer" of enterprise development, and downstream acceptance of high prices is low. Faced with the current high low price difference, downstream procurement behavior has shown obvious polarization: leading factories have successfully absorbed large orders from core customers in the market through the "price for quantity" strategy, stabilizing expectations; Some individual enterprises have reserved a certain margin of concession in actual transactions in order to win orders from core customers in June, and attempted to use faster delivery time as a bargaining chip to attract customers.
List of mainstream quotation ranges (as of May 20th): Despite a slight decline in the transaction end, external quotations remain firm. The specific mainstream quotation ranges are as follows: DMC (dimethyl cyclic siloxane): 14800-15300 yuan/ton; 107 glue: 14800-15300 yuan/ton; Raw rubber: 15500-16100 yuan/ton; Silicone oil: 16200-16800 yuan/ton; Raw material silicon metal (421 # Xinjiang market): 9300-9700 yuan/ton. The quotations of industry enterprises are basically stable, but the market lacks upward support, making it difficult for short-term transactions to have significant volume increases.
Recently, the overall silicone oil market has shown a good trend of "price stabilization and strong production and sales". The mainstream market quotations remain stable, and the supply of goods is orderly. As of May 20th, the mainstream quotation for domestic methyl silicone oil is in the range of 16200-16800 yuan/ton, while the mainstream quotation for foreign brand agents such as Dow, Wacker, and Shinetsu is about 20500-21500 yuan/ton, and the price for cracking material silicone oil is 13800-14200 yuan/ton. As the impact of low-priced supply from leading factories in the early stage gradually fades, downstream procurement returns to rationality, and the pace of on-demand procurement remains stable. The overall market trading atmosphere is still acceptable.
On the application side, with the moderate growth in demand for lubricants, cosmetics, electronics and electrical equipment, medical devices, textiles and leather, food processing, automobiles, optical equipment, aerospace, and coatings, the demand for high-end applications of silicone oil is accelerating. Several DMC and silicone oil manufacturers have reported good news, with companies generally reflecting stable production and sales, and a continuous improvement in production and operation.
The general manager of a large silicone oil brand enterprise in East China revealed that the company currently has a very high volume of orders on hand, and the production schedule has covered until July, which can fully guarantee full load production for the next two to three months. This is mainly due to the current peak period of concentrated overseas orders, and the expected continued increase in overseas order volume in the future, providing strong support for the stable operation of the enterprise.
Looking ahead to the future, the market supply and demand fundamentals may experience marginal changes. From the supply side perspective, with the reduction of domestic single plant maintenance plans in May and the completion of annual maintenance for some units (such as Dow Zhangjiagang), the industry's operating rate is expected to rebound, and the industry's spot circulation is expected to increase. The tight supply situation in the early stage will gradually ease.
On the demand side, the market is about to enter the traditional off-season, and there is an expectation of a weakening in terminal demand mainly for high-temperature and room temperature adhesives. In addition, the difficulty of transferring costs downwards has increased, and most downstream enterprises have already completed a moderate amount of inventory replenishment in the early stage. In the short term, their purchasing mentality may return to caution and focus on digesting inventory for essential needs.
Overall, with the support of pre-sale order delivery, DMC silicone oil prices are expected to maintain stable operation in late May; It is expected that the silicone market will show a pattern of "stability first and then weakness" in the short term, and both buyers and sellers still need to closely monitor the operation of leading companies, the operation of upstream equipment, and the actual changes in downstream orders.