Last week, the domestic silicone market continued to show a steady upward trend, with prices for major products generally increasing due to cost support and expectations of tight supply. However, due to limited downstream acceptance of current high prices, the actual trading volume of new orders has not been synchronously amplified, and the market presents a game characteristic of "price but quantity". In the short term, the market is expected to mainly consolidate and strengthen, and the subsequent trend needs to be observed in terms of cost transmission and demand follow-up. Monitoring data shows that the prices of major products have generally increased. As of today, the prices of various mainstream products have shown the following performance: DMC has generally increased to 13700-14000 yuan/ton; Silicone oil increased to 15500-16100 yuan/ton; The price of 107 glue has been raised to 14500-14800 yuan/ton; The quotation for raw rubber has been adjusted to 14800-15000 yuan/ton.
Strong supply side support: Major production enterprises continue to actively reduce production, and the overall operating rate of the industry remains relatively low. At present, factories mainly focus on executing pre-sale orders in the early stage, and the supply of spot goods is tight, providing bottom support for market prices.
Slowdown in demand side follow-up: After a round of centralized replenishment by downstream customers at the beginning of this week, the raw material inventory was partially replenished, resulting in a significant slowdown in subsequent procurement pace. At the end of the week, the market inquiry and transaction activity decreased, especially the atmosphere of DMC new order transactions weakened. There is a significant gap between the current quotation of the manufacturer and the psychological price of downstream customers, which has become the main obstacle to suppressing actual transaction volume.
Market mentality and outlook: The bullish sentiment in the market still exists, mainly due to sustained supply contraction. However, insufficient follow-up on short-term demand has limited the room for price increases. If there are clearer market guidelines in the future (such as pricing policies of leading manufacturers, trends in raw material prices, etc.), it is expected that market liquidity will improve. Overall, it is expected that market prices will remain stable with a slight increase in some areas in the short term, and the market is waiting for new driving factors to break the current stalemate.
It is necessary to closely monitor the price fluctuations of upstream raw materials such as silicon metal, the production and inventory changes of major manufacturers, as well as the actual order situation of downstream terminal fields (such as real estate, textiles, new energy, etc.). If high prices continue to suppress demand, it cannot be ruled out that the market will enter a phase of consolidation.